PIX PIX and MORE PIX!!!

****NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 4****

I wanna start this column off by congratulating one of my FF Kappa League rivals for besting me in an NFL Pick ATS side game last week. David “Lucky” Luckenbach went 11-5 against my 10-6 ATS. Great job, Luck.

That loss burned me up…
…not because he beat me at my own game but because of the NFL games that lost it for me.

The Titans and Jets have screwed me royally and separately, every week, this entire season. It was only right that with next year’s draft position on the line, these 2 teams would play each other.

The more I think about it the more I realize that there was no way I was gonna get this one right. My only hope was to match my pick with my opponent’s but that would have required a lack of scruples.
I have no scruples...but not when it comes to fantasy football.

The next ass-poling came from the Falcons/New England matchup. The Pats were giving up 4.5 and I thought Atlanta had enough fire power to at least keep it close, if not win. There were a few shenanigans in that game and in the end the Pats more than covered but I just felt the Falcons didn’t want it that badly.

The final pink-socking came Monday Night where the Panthers failed to cover 8.5 against the Cowboys. That game went pretty much how I thought it would. The Panthers kept it close. My hope was that if they could break 2 big plays, whether from Steve Smith or Deangelo Williams, it would be enough. That never happened, yet the Panthers still had the game covered until the final minutes when Jake turned the ball over twice.

It’s a bit unfair of me to single out Jake because while he had 3 turnovers in the game none were truly his fault. His protection failed him on the final sack-fumble. Muhsin Muhammad gave up on the ball on the first INT. And the most devastating TO, the pick-6, came because Steve Smith inexplicably changed his route when he saw Terence Newman about to jump it.
Don’t get cute, Steve, at least not with MY money!

(sigh)

Had I to do it all over again I’d probably make the same picks from top to bottom.
As it is I’m 31-18 on the year so let’s try to jump back on the horse.

EARLY AFTERNOON GAMES

The Autumn Wind @ HOUSTON -9 (±42.5)
I’ve already mentioned how the Texans are making it their life’s work to make an ass of me week after week, but the Raiders are getting their licks in too. Week 1 they cover against the Chargers, then they beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead and then they follow all that up by getting spanked by the Broncos at home.
So here we are again.

The fact remains that the Jamarcus Russell stinks as a quarterback and as much as the Texans have failed to cover, they’ve never failed to put up points.
Here’s to hoping Schaub and AJ stay healthy!

Oilers @ Jacksonville +3 (±41.5) OVR
Friggin Titans, man. Yet another team that befuddles me. Their WRs are so much better than last year’s and Lendale is off the Patron, yet they can’t make it happen in the red zone. These AFC South matchups are always close so it’s really a matter of taking the over/under.
I don’t trust Tennessee to contain MoJo so...
Take the OVR.

B-MORE RAVENS @ Foxborough -2 (44.5)
Charm City Ravens, on the other hand, have yet to let me down and I’m very proud of my taking them to cover 13 against the Browns. Patriots still don’t look sharp but it will happen sooner or later. That said, the Ravens are simply a better team. And let’s not forget that the last time these two faced each other was in 07 and Baltimore had them beat.

I like the Ravens.

BENGALS @ Cleveland +6 (±38)
Another pick I’m especially proud of, The Bengals beat the Steelers last week. Came down to the final seconds but the fact is this team is pretty solid. They can run. They can pass and that defense is plucky (somebody needs to get Rey-Rey under control). Derek Anderson is starting but people are underestimating how bad the Browns are.
Bengals cover.

The New York Football Giants @ Arrowhead +8.5 (±42) UND
Wow. What did the Giants do to deserve this stretch of schedule? Oh yeah. They lost a chance to repeat to Osi's injury, Plax's antics and lost Kenny Phillips to a season ending arthritis injury.

I don’t make official Giants picks ATS and the over was a good bet against the Bucs last week but who woulda thought they’d pitch a shutout with that many guys missing on defense?

(Did they really throw Tuck out there in a shoulder harness?)

While I doubt they serve up 2 straight bagels, the losing team won’t score enough to touch the over so…
Take the UNDER.

SPARTANS @ Soldier Field -10 (±39)

I think everyone took the Lions to cover last week. Many of us even thought they’d win. Look, this team can move the ball. I still think they made a mistake in taking Stafford but he’ll be competent enough to win them a few games.

I’ve literally not made my mind up as I write this. Ten points is a lot but the Lions are still a horrible team, especially on defense. This is probably the week Forte gets back on track and were this in Detroit I mighta taken the Lions to cover but….you know what?
Fuckit.
Take the Lions.

Bucs @ JACK KENT COOKE -7.5 (±37)
Wow (pt. Deux!)
It’s gonna be really tough to take Tampa in any of their games. These guys are rebuilding just about every part of their team. New HC. New defense. New QB. They fired their OC weeks before the season. They’re a hot mess. The Braves aren’t much better but you gotta figure scores from Portis and Squish-Squam is all it’s gonna take.
I like Washington.

‘hawks @ INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 (±44)
I was tempted to take the over since now the Colts are without Bob Sanders AND Dwight Freeney. But why get cute?

Colts cover.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

New Jersey Titans @ THE SUPERDOME -7 (±45)
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

PAAAAAIN!!!

I’ll take the Saints.

Bills @ JOE ROBBIE +1.5 (±37)
This game gave me fits. Another game I can see going in all sorts of directions. Trent Edwards is a bonafidelitly terrible quarterback (and yes, I made that word up. Wanna fight about it?). But Lee Evans tends to do well against the South Beach Wildcats and you gotta figure T.O.’s 0-fer won’t abide.

Speaking of the Wildcat, has Pat White played at all this season? And didn’t I tell you Chad Pennington can’t put together 2 good seasons in a row?

Speaking of QBs named “Chad”, we finally get to see Jake Long protecting Chad Henne’s backside again (feel free to go crazy with that one).
Will they recreate some of that ol’ Michigan Magic?
Was there even a such thing?
Finally, is it too much to ask pro-players to maintain their collegiate rivalries? I’d love to see a Ted Ginn Jr. freeze-out.

Speaking of “freeze-outs”… uhh…Dolphins cover.

Rams @ CANDLESTICK -9.5 (±37.5)
Brett fuggin’ Favre. I’m not gonna feed into the hype machine by discussing his last second “heroics”. But is there ANY doubt that Coach Singletary’s Niners will cover whatever spread you put in front of them?
(besides the aforementioned Hail-Mary, of course.)

Frisco all the way.

COWBOYS @ Mile High +3 (±42.5)
Bleh! Bleh! Bleh!
Cowboys cover.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

CHARGERS @ Heinz Field -6 (±43)
Didn’t these 2 teams play each other last year at Pittsburgh? Remember the “Troy Polamalu intercepted-illegal-fwd-pass-return-TD-Steelers-non-cover-cover Game”? 11-10?
A conventional man would take the under.

BUT... what has 2 thumbs and is NOT gonna taking “under”?

THIS GUUUY!!!

I’m taking the Light Brigade.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Packers @ The Metrodome -3.5 (±45) OVR
Speaking of Mr. Monday Nights!
I am very much looking forward to seeing these two former partners in primetime faceoff.


BTW, Everyone’s making a big deal about this game but really, it’s the Vikings AT Green Bay that’s gonna be the emotional one. This is really just some guys in yellow helmets playing some old dude in a shitty dome.
Take the OVER.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK: Gonna try something a little different this week. We're gonna do a 6-Team Teaser!

For the uninitiated, a "teaser" bet is one in which you move the line a set number of points to your advantage. The odds aren't as favorable but if you can get enough games into your parlay it's worth the while.

Moving the line 6 points on a 6-Team Tease gets you around 7/1 odds, in which case I like:

Lions +16, Colts -4.5, Saints -1, Dolphins +7, Cowboys +3, and Chargers +12

So give it a whirl, ladies. And as always...

...Good Luck and God Bless!"