"Gotta use that LATEX...

...or you'll get that "I think I'm late!" text."
-Lil Weezy

NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 15

LATE AFTERNOOON GAMES

Bengals @ SAN DIEGO -6.5

It’s tough to predict how teams will perform in emotional games. Football is a physical sport that requires concentration, control and aggression. Teams usually benefit from higher degrees of focus and aggression, especially on defense. But people deal with tragedy in different ways. Some get extra emotional. Some people shut down. And even if the majority of players play with heightened aggression, it’s not always tempered with focus.

Given the fact that this isn’t a home game and that the Bengals traditionally don’t do well on the West coast, as well as the fact the Chargers are one of the best teams in football right now, I’m going to go with the home team.

Chargers.

Raiders @ MILE HIGH -14

The Autumn Wind blows into Denver’s Mile High Stadium but its winter in Colorado and the Raiders are starting their 3^rd string quarterback. What’s worse is the fact that their starting QB is perfectly healthy, he just stinks like hot garbage on ice. So Charlie Frye will be running an offense built on the running of Fargas, McFadden and the pass-catching of Zach Miller and Louis Murphy.

Speaking of which, TE Zach Miller was recently heard talking to rookie receiver, Darrius Heyward-Bey, in the locker room after a loss to the Chiefs.

[quote]”You can definitely work on catching the ball. It’s something you can improve on, just catching the ball the right way and catching a lot in practice”[/quote]

This is a conversation between 2 NFL receivers, the absurdity of which being properly reported on in the latest issue of ESPN magazine.

Let’s go with the Broncos.

PACKERS @ City of Champions -2.5

I’m still giving the Pittsburgh Steelers their proper respect as defending champions but they are ever so close to losing the right to be referred to as such; they’ve lost to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns over the past few weeks.

Meanwhile, back at Green Bay, the Packers have won 5 straight since getting upset by the Bucs.

They’ve gotten healthier on the offensive line which has given Aaron Rodgers the time to slice through secondaries, but it’s really the improved play of the defense, despite (or perhaps BECAUSE of) the absence of LB Aaron Kampman.

Unfortunately for the Steelers the opposite is true of their defensive play without Troy Polamalu. I’ve been watching football for 25 years and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a defense so negatively affected by the loss of one player, especially a safety. Polamalu is not the most technically gifted safety. He’s neither the fastest, strongest nor smartest safety in the league. But he plays with great instincts. He closes on the ball quickly and is a destructive force as a blitzer, run-stopper and as a defender in coverage. Commentators often say that it’s like there are 2 of him out there and I have to agree, because when you look at the Steelers defense it looks like they’re literally playing with a man short.

I’m taking the Packers.

NINERS @ Philadelphia -7

Some have criticized Coach Singletary for the way in which he welcomed rookie Michael Crabtree, making him a starter immediately after a contract holdout that went 2 months into the season.

I don’t wanna hear no never-mind about that. This kid is a player. With Vernon Davis and Frank Gore ready to ascend to elite player status, the Niners now boast 3 weapons on offense that defensive coordinators have to gameplan for. If they can get any consistency out of the quarterback position and that defense maintains its current level of play, they will division title contenders for years to come.

The Eagles, meanwhile continue to vex me as they have for the past decade. Just when I thought their reign of terror might soon be at an end with the aging of Westbrook and the uncertainty of McNabb and Reid’s futures with the team, they hit home-runs in back to back drafts adding speedy play-makers like Maclin, McCoy, Celek and DeSean friggin Jackson. That dude is electric, pure and simple. If Andy Reid ever gets around to developing a truly consistently ground game, and if McNabb could stop chucking balls at his receivers feet, these guys would give the Saints a run for their money.

Their defense sucks though. I never liked Brian Dawkins but I respected him.

San Francisco should be able to move the ball enough to score some points and their defense should make enough stops and force enough turnovers to keep it respectable.

Niners cover.

Bears @ CHARM CITY -10.5

Finally the Ravens have figured it out. Joe Flacco looked good last year as a rookie but he’s still a young quarterback in a league where the average starting linebackers and DBs knows more about the intricacies of an offense than any first year quarterback does. Gone (at least for now) are the days when the Ravens defense didn’t ask much more of the offense but to score 10 points and not turn it over. The irony is that this should have made the coordinators a little MORE conservative on offense than less. Flacco’s got a great arm and he’ll be a stud one day, but they don’t have any real play-makers in the passing game. The receivers can’t get any separation, so to ask Flacco to try to read coverages and make plays in the passing game is unfair.

But now the Ravens are using their best asset, Ray Rice to jab their opponents into submission. Sprinkle some play action and-POOF!-Derrick Mason starts hauling in balls, McGahee starts vulturing goalline carries, Lewis and Reed do the “U-Cane head-butt” thing and all is right with the world.

As for the Bears, they stink.

Ravens and the over (39)….EASY!

Bucs @ SEATTLE -6.5

Part of me wishes that Tampa Bay would wear their old “creamsicle” unis against the hawks in those garish “melon-ball” unis.

Check that—ALL of me wishes that would happen.

…

……

Wow. I have nothing else to say about this game.

Home team and the over (39).

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

VIKINGS @ Carolina +8.5

One of the reasons I’m putting these picks out so late (as in this afternoon versus this morning) was that I spent about an hour and a half shoveling snow. It actually might have been closer to two and half hours because I took numerous 5 minute breaks and a couple of 20 minute ones. Now I’m a relatively young man in relatively good shape and have always used proper technique when doing anything that requires lifting, pushing, pulling, and bending over. But lemme tell you, my back is killing me right now.

Why do I bring this up? Because the great Bill Simmons once made a point about how you don’t send a 50 year old man to go shovel the snow, you find his 25 year old son and make him do it. This was his theory as to why Brett Favre has recently eaten balls late in the season.

This is all I thought of while shoveling.

(That and the inexplicability of my not living in San Diego right now.)

Forecasted temperature at kickoff is about 32 degrees, getting down to about 26 by mid-game.

Percy Harvin is still suffering migraines and AD fumbles rock.

Still taking the ‘kings to cover but I’m also betting the under (42.5).

Saturday Night Fever

***SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Cowboys @ NEW ORLEANS -7.5 ±53.5

Look. I hate the Cowboys as much as the next guy, maybe more. But I wanted to look into this “December Swoon” thing and see if the Cowboys weren’t getting a bad rap. After losing last week to the Chargers the Cowboys are now 3-7 in December dating back to 2007. Certainly nothing to be proud of but as we all know Dallas is part of an NFC east division that perennially sends 2 if not 3 teams to the playoffs. Teams often have multiple division games scheduled in the final 4 weeks and such games are always competitive, especially in the east.

So let’s take a look at this year by year.

2007: The Cowboys went 13-3 and had their bye locked up before week 16. They went 2-2 that December, beating the Lions and Panthers weeks 14 and 16 and losing to the Eagles and Redskins weeks 15 and 17. Both losses were to division rivals, the Eagles being a perennial NFC powerhouse and the Redskins loss being a road game where starters were probably being rested.

2008: The Cowboys entered December with an 8-4 record on the playoff bubble. They went 1-4 that December, beating the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants in week 15 (albeit without Plaxico Burress or Brandon Jacobs) but lost to the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers. All 3 of those teams made it to their conference championships and one was the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

2009: As in previous year, The Cowboys came into December with 8 wins, although this time with a division lead in hand. They’ve lost both games so far, but as in years past one came from a division rival, The New York Football Giants, while the other came from the San Diego Chargers. Both defeats were from reigning division title-holders and San Diego is in position to clinch their division and the #2 seed in the AFC this coming week.

Tonight the Cowboys go on the road against the undefeated Saints, a team that completely embarrassed the mighty Patriots a few weeks ago. They’ll probably end up losing this game and the December swoon talk will continue. Now I understand that good teams find ways to win these tough games. And surely a .500 record against NFL teams of any type is not too much to ask.
But this swoon talk is a little overblown.

Having said that, I think the Cowboys come out and have a complete shit stain of a game. They’re either going to come out and be too conservative not wanting to make any mistakes against a Saints team that will kill you dead without prejudice…OR they come out so fast and loose as if to prove a point, in which case there will be mishaps galore.
Either way I like Drew Brees to go out there and do what he do, and that’s put 40-burgers up on the scoreboard.
Saints and the under.

Right Back Like I Left Something!

Took a bad beat the sunday night steelers @ ravens game a few weeks ago.

needed a couple weeks to lick my wounds. after nailing this past monday night 49ers cover AND the over, i think i'm ready to pound out these last couple of weeks.

Let's start with some....

Thursday Night Football

COLTS @ Jacksonville +4.5 ±43.5

Coach says that although Indy has clinched the #1 seed in the playoffs he’ll be playing all his healthy starters as per usual. Don’t know how much I buy into that but I gotta trust that they’re not gonna just take the next 4 weeks off from playing football.

Besides, the Jags are as good of a tune-up game in terms of stopping a solid running game as any.

Crowd will definitely not be an issue in Jacksonville and you’d be hard pressed to find me betting against Peyton Manning in a primetime game.

Take the Colts and take the over.

So Late. So sorry.

Like most people, I believe in many things. I believe in gods and monsters. I believe in supernatural phenomena. I believe in fate & destiny and reason & science. I believe in freedom. I believe in order and chaos. I believe in structure and discipline. I believe in conservatism and progressive liberalism. I believe in abiding fundament. I believe in change. I believe we are masters of creation. I believe we are slaves to a fabricated and meaningless existence.

But resolving all that seeming contradiction comes from my belief in 3 things:

Context, Consistency and Control.

What the hell am I talking about?

CONTEXT: Everything must be put in its proper frame of reference in order to be properly examined and evaluated. It’s sort of my existential induction of Einstein’s Special Relativity. The same way one can not accurately measure the mass, speed, or any other physical property of an object without putting it in its proper frame of reference, one cannot accurately measure any human thought, word or deed without doing the same.

A man stands on a flatbed section of a train moving 80 mph and fires a fastball off the back and all his fellow passengers say, “Wow!” as they measure 92 on the gun.

But the scout who happens to be standing at the junction as this circus passes by says, “What are these idiots talking about? That thing barely broke 10 on MY gun!”

Today, we all know that the problem here is CONTEXT.

Let’s imagine that the train, the flatbed, the passengers and the pitcher (everything on the track but the ball) are all invisible. The passengers on the train had a proper frame of reference that was not the same as the rube standing idly by at the junction.

The passengers saw a ball at rest in the pitchers hand that then raced away from them at 92 miles per hour, the rube saw a ball coming TOWARDS him at 80 mph, slow down, stop for an instant, then start moving the other way at about 12 miles per hour.

Terrific. Let’s talk about CONSISTENCY.

In addition to the Newtonian consistency in observable phenomena that Einstein proved exists in cases like the one above, I also believe in consistency in terms of BALANCE. Call it what you want, karma, yin-yang, action-reaction, cause and effect. That’s all fine, but my belief also entails the ACCEPTANCE of that effect, that reaction, that balancing variable of an equation.

We’ve all been in or heard an argument involving a “moral relativist.” At some point someone always pulls out the “What if someone raped and killed you wife and children?”

Part of the problem in this argument is semantic. The relativist might say murder is not inherently “wrong” or “bad” or “evil”. This isn’t the same as saying that it is something that a particular person or group of people would rather not happen.

Millions of Americans wanted Michael Phelps to propel himself through an aqueous medium at a marginally faster rate than 7 other people near him. Any of the other guys could have touched the wall first. Americans would rather it NOT happened. But that didn’t make either occurrence wrong or right.

Of course malicious acts such as murder inspire more visceral emotions and reactions. But it’s still just an action that you either would like to see or experience or not.

I don’t want my friend murdered. Most people in a civilized society don’t want him/her murdered. But the “murderer” does (and maybe whatever worms are waiting to feast on his body wouldn’t mind either).

It just so happens that the rest of an organized society have agreed (and rightly so) that it’s better if we don’t have dudes knocking each other upside the head with rocks (but even if that WERE the case, would bodies be dropping at a rate greater than, say, cancer deaths, auto-accidents, heart-attacks etc?).

So saying it’s not “wrong” is not the same as saying “it’d be better and nicer and probably more spiritually enlightening if this thing DIDN’T happen”.

Putting semantics aside it’s not incorrect to say the death of Herbert X wasn’t really bad for the state he lived in. It wasn’t bad for the country in any noticeable way. The earth doesn’t care. The universe doesn’t care. And honestly, god probably doesn’t care either.

But everyone who KNOWS Herbert X cares. People who know of him, or relate to him or who are sympathetic to that sort of thing all care. The church cares. The state cares. The Law cares.

So now, there is a CONSEQUENCE.

The victim’s brother takes a baseball bat to the murderer’s head. Or maybe his neighbors turn him over to the authorities. The state presses charges. All these are actions that individual entities take because something happened that related to them. It affected THEIR frames of reference.

If in the murderer’s frame of reference Herbert’s death pleases him, so be it. And if this guy knew the consequences and was willing to accept them…or even if he didn’t but was willing to come to terms with whatever consequence he was ignorant of, then there’s no way I can say that what he did was wrong. It’s HIS frame of reference. That is the context for the “right vs. wrong” evaluation.

Right vs. Wrong isn’t a matter of morality. It’s a matter of BALANCE, the balance between your thoughts and emotions BEFORE a decision and those AFTER. Regret and remorse after-the-fact betray previous decision making. That incongruence makes something “wrong”.

Finally we come to CONTROL, which encompasses everything mentioned above. When you have a proper understanding of these other concepts then you can start exercising some control of what would otherwise seem chaotic.

And it is!

As far as any individual is concerned there IS chaos. There are things operating in, around and on you, of which you have little to no understanding. That can seem chaotic. But to the guy pulling all the strings it all makes sense. It might be a tragic sense, or a comedic sense, or a malicious sense. But there is an internal logic to it.

You CAN exercise control to the degree that you can understand what is happening about you, however.

You can be in a federal prison and be in control. If you consciously and purposefully chose the actions that put you there, then you are your own jailer. And you may not have foreseen the conditions of your confinement or the length. But the degree to which you were willing to accept it, acknowledging that you cannot me cognizant of ALL things, is the degree to which exercised control.

This is how people in the direst of circumstances can remain calm or happy and those in seemingly utopian conditions can be miserable.

Pats lost.

Colts won.

Those are just the results. Whether Belichek made the “right or wrong” call on 4^th and 2 from the 28 has NOTHING to do with the result of the game. It has EVERYTHING to do with what we just talked about (didn’t think I’d get here, huh?)

Up 6 points on the fat side of the 2 minute warning Belichek was faced with the decision to either punt or go for it. He chose to go for it.

Doesn’t matter if you get it or not. A new universe opens up once you put something into action (suppose they made the 1^st down but Brady suffered a season ending injury on the play. Go ahead and follow through on your kneel-to-win-the-game-plan, but your season’s plans are up in smoke). But what DOES matter is that your decisions and actions after the fact are consistent with your thinking before. They don’t have to be the SAME decisions, just consistent with your thinking.

You make the decision to go for it for one or both of the following reasons:

1. You have no confidence in your defense, were they to punt the ball.

2. You have extraordinary amount of confidence in your offense to get that 1^st down in the toughest of circumstances.

We aren’t privy to Belichek’s thoughts, but we are privy to the decisions he made after turning it over on downs. We can therefore evaluate those decisions for consistency.

The ONLY action that would have justified the gamble was to let the Colts score on the next snap.

If the reason for the gamble was a lack of confidence in his defense to defend 75 yards for 2 minutes, then he should have had even LESS confidence in them defending only 30 yards for 2 minutes. To be willing to make that defensive stand given those unfortunate circumstance means you should have been willing to do the same in better circumstances. And not only did this put him out of balance but he also relinquished control.

If he believed his offense gave him the best chance to win, why not put the ball back in their hands with as much time as possible. Only a field goal was necessary. A return to the 30 would put them more or less in the same circumstances as Peyton, needing to make a couple of first downs to get a shot at kicking the game winner. I’d rather 4 shots at ten yards than 1 shot at 2.

In the end he only left his offense with 9 seconds to win the game. Not only did he give up the control he had but he put his players in a position to get injured in an impossible situation (Josh Cribs and remember how Jay Alford speared Brady him on the 2^nd to last snap in the SB).

Context.

Consistency.

Control.

I’m just gonna run through these picks quickly

***NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 11***

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Dolphins@ Carolina -3.5

Already done but there’s no way I woulda touched anything but the under.

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

Browns @ THE MOTOR CITY -3.5

Both teams are terrible but the Browns defense isn’t SUPREMELY terrible nor is the Detroit offense.

Bills @ JACKSONVILLE -9

The Bills ARE supremely terrible and will not stop MoJo and MSW.

Steelers @ ARROWHEAD +10.5

Troy’s out and it’s a road game.

COLTS @ Charm City +1.5

gotta take Peyton to win by 2.

FALCONS @ THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS -7 ±45.5

Gonna be a big day for Gonzo but I like the UNDER.

49ers @ LAMBEAU FIELD-6.5

AaRodge is a stunna.

SEAHAWKS @ MINNESOTA -10.5 ±46.5

35-13? At least!

Take the over.

Braves @ COWBOYS STADIUM -11

not after losing in Green Bay.

Saints @ EAST ST. PETERSBURG +10.5

Saints need Sedrick Ellis back.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

CARDINALS @ The Georgia Dome +9

Cards match up too nicely against the Rams.

Jets @ FOXBOROUGH -10.5

I believe Mr. Sapp called it a “40-burger.”

BENGALS @ The Black Hole +9

I shouldn’t take the Bengals on the west coast but I will.

CHARGERS @ Mile High +4

Somethings gone wrong in Denver.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

IGGIES @ Soldier Field +3

Not even close.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

TITANS @ Houston -4.5

Tough one. Shitty “no-man’s land” line so I just gotta go with who I think will win.

Can’t say “Happy Hunting!” since I was so late with this. I’m posting this mainly for the Belichek analysis and to record what my picks were before Sunday.

And obviously there’s nothing left to parlay, but Titans and the over isn’t a bad play.

Later!

The Elusive

Damn Green Bay upset is all that stood between me and TOTAL financial supremacy.

”Playtime’s ova, boy!”

The Last Dragon.
(sigh)
What a great friggin’ movie. Do you know anyone who’s seen it and not liked it? I don’t. I’ve seen that film at least one hundred times and it never disappoints. There isn’t a single frame from a single scene that isn’t funny, interesting, awesome or ridiculous on some level.

There’s been talk about a sequel or remake for some time now and while I’m sure Taimak is still in great physical shape (hey, remember when he played the date-rapist in the season one eps. of ‘A Different World?), it just wouldn’t be the same. Little Richie’s all grown up. Vanity gained weight and found God (not sure of the order) and worst of all, Sho’Nuff is dead.

While on some level it would be cool to see Samuel Leroy Jackson ham it up as the Shogun of Harlem, the truth is Julius Carry OWNED that role. Who else you know could pull off the football shoulder-pads/red gi-pants/chuck taylor combo?
And was he not rockin’ the “real shades” shades a full 2 decades before Kanye hit the scene?

***NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 10***

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

JAGUARS @ The Meadowlands -6.5
Home teams coming off byes have been doing pretty well ATS but that’s almost a TD we’re talking about here. There’s a chance I’m mixing my fantasy perspective with my NFL perspective but there’s no denying that The Jets will have a tough time stopping MJD without Kris Jenkins.
Jaaaaaaaags.

Broncos @ JACK KENT COOKE +3.5
Seeing a player as tough as Clint P. lie face down and motionless in the turf last Sunday was a bit disturbing. Washington should seriously think about shutting it down for the season. As it is they’re just doing it a player at a time, one week at a time. That said, Broncos are on a short week, are traveling east for a one o’clock game and are giving more than a FG to a defense that’s still pretty solid.

”Oh man… I bet Cooley is pickin’ Ladell up off the waiver wire RIGHT NOW!”

Bengals @ THE CITY OF CHAMPIONS -7
Here’s where the rubber hits the road.
Bengals win this and they’ll probably go 6-0 in the division. But the Steelers defense is as solid as usual and the offensive line held up pretty well run-blocking AND in pass protection versus the Broncos.
Look for Pittsburgh to start restoring order in the AFC North.

Bills @ MUSIC CITY -8.5
Vegas refused to give up on the Titans this year which is unfortunate because had they done so, we could clean up on a couple of sub-touchdown lines. Eight and a half is scary but Chris Johnson is scarier.
Titans all day.

The Lions @ THE METRODOME -16.5
I always seem to make an “all-day” reference leading into a Vikings Game. Lemme tell you exactly how this game is going to go. Detroit is going to keep it relatively close for about 12 minutes (17-10ish in the 2nd quarter. They’ll find themselves down two scores in and around halftime and the final score will be something like 38-17.
Now I haven’t done the math. Is that more than 16.5 points?
If it is, then take the Vikings.

The Saints @ THE GEORGIA DOME -13.5
Lemme tell you how this game is going to go. The Rams are going to come in with one mission: Deliver a steady, yet ample dosage of Steve Jax.
The Saints, too will have only one mission: to stay the constant flow of Steve Jax.
Two problems:

1. Steve Jax is unstoppable.
2. The only thing that Steve Jax chews up more than yards, is time.

There just won’t be enough time for the Saints to rack up a 2 TD lead…or they will...wha-evah.

Nah. The OTHER Steve Jax. But yeah, this guy’s a handful too.

DIRTY BIRDS @ Carolina +1.5
NFC SOUTH ALERT!
NFC SOUTH ALERT!
These games are always close (just not “Panthers-covering-2” close).
Falcons.

BUCS @ South Beach -10
A wise man once told me that the battle of the Florida-penis always goes WAAAAAY under. (I might wanna reword that.)
Since I’m saving my chicken-shit bets for the late games I’ll just take those double digit points.
I believe in you, Josh Freeman!

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

Chiefs @ The Black Hole -2 (±36.5)
Ah, the 4 o’clock games and not a moment too soon. Two friggin’ points?! What am I posta do with that? I’m not saying it’s wrong. But hell’s bells! There’s no way to predict what’ll happen with these two teams.
Except of course for the…
OVAAAHHH!!!!

’hawks @ Arizona -8.5 (±46.5)
You’d hafta be insane to take the Cardinals to cover this many points at home versus the hawks. I mean, the Cards can score points. But not every DC is stoopid enough to single cover Larry Fitzgerald for an entire half.
How about another…
OVAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

Iggies @ SAN DIEGO -1

”But I’m throwing behind my receivers by like...5yards! Just like you said!”
“Yeah, but they're still catchable. Flick your wrist like this…that way the ball goes right into the dirt.

COWBOYS @ Green Bay +3
Of all the indignities!!! The Packers are GETTING 3 points in the frozen tundra! This is what happens when you lose in epic-fail-fashion to the East St. Petersberg Creamsicles. (I believe in you Josh Freeman!)
AaRod will always have a place on my fantasy team (no negative points for bad sacks), but as long as that offensive line is giving it up like a fat girl on prom night, and as long as that D-fensive line is penetrating like a USA Today article, IIII’M gonna keep spitting out these similes…
…while taking the Cowboys to cover.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

PATRIOTS @ Indianapolis -3
If Troy Aikman were making this pick:

"I’m not so sure The Indianapolis Colts have ever been able to outplay New England to the point where they could establish a lead that Tom Brady and these New England Patriots wouldn’t be able to come back from.
If I were a betting man, and I’m not…but if I were, I think I'd like to take the New England Patriots and that field goal all the way to the bank.”

Thanks, Troy.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

RAVENS @ The Cleve +10.5
NFL 2009 Flex Scheduling: A week too late and a night too soon.
Ravens

PARLAY OF THE WEEK:

BANG!!!

C’mon folks! You gotta give it up for my POTWs. Last week I knocked yet another one out the park. That one paid 7 on the dollar. I GOTTA be well over 50% on these big bets so I can afford to go a little crazy and try to shoot the moon.
6-TEAM TEASE: Steelers to win, Titans -1.5, Pats +10, Ravens -3.5, KC/Oak OVR 30.5, Sea/Zona OVR 40.5

Happy Hunting!

"MOOO-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHHH!!!"