PLAYOFFS!?!?!?

Hello-Hello-Hello!!!

It's the eve of the NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend and I'm sure you're just as excited about it as I am. Every game is a rematch of a very competitive game previously played in the regular season so things should get very interesting.
The top-seeds are coming off their byes and their challengers are all coming off big wild-card wins. It gets no better than this, folks. But we'll get to all that in a minute.
I wanna take this time out to talk about a few peripheral football issues.

Let's talk about the BCS...

Now I'm not gonna rehash the playoff debate (I'm for one). The fact of the matter is the BCS contract is set until 2012 so the debate can begin in earnest then. All we can do in the meantime is record and compile instances/evidence that supports whatever side of the argument we're on. But given the BCS system as currently constituted, there are still some things that need to be addressed.

Firstly, we have to acknowledge the fact that not only did Utah, champion of a non-BCS conference finish their season undefeated, but they did so by beating Alabama in the Orange Bowl. I understand the argument that teams playing in weaker conferences get weak national championship consideration, but let's be fair. Utah played a very balanced home-away schedule, including games against Top 15 bowl-teams like TCU, BYU, and ultimately, #4 ranked Alabama. What more can they do?
How is there resume any worse than, say, USC's or Penn State's?

Secondly, I don't consider the Oklahoma vs. Texas argument settled. If anything, OU's loss in the BCS Championship game has re-opened the Big 12 controversy. Not only does the orginal argument of Texas deserving a bid over OU by virtue of their superior head-to-head record still hold true, but now after the bowl games, the two teams don't even have identical records!

Texas took care of their business in beating a tough OSU defense in an exciting Fiesta Bowl. but unfortunately, Oklahoma fell short against Florida in a game with everything on the line.

At the very least, Texas should finish #2 in all polls. This of course will make OU's Big 12 championship even more of a travesty.

Finally, turning back to professional football for a minute, I'd like to address the sudden-death overtime debate. Conservatives argue that teams have no right to complain about losing without ever getting an offensive possession because playing defense is as much a part of the game as playing offense is. "Make plays and tackle" goes the argument.

The progressive position states that the game has evolved over the last 15 years with new rules that favor offensive production. And where once the team winning the coin-toss went on to win overtime a mere 4 out of 10 times, that number is closer to 7 out of 10 now. The inherent imbalance is statistically evident.

I am sensitive to both arguments, but both arguments miss what should be the most compelling point. Sudden-death overtime is inherently unfair because the team winning the toss (it is assumed that they will opt for possession) has the advantage of only needing ONE unit performing moderately successfuly to win the game. The 'losers' of the coin-toss, on the other hand need ALL 3 units to perform moderately successfully to win the same game!

For example, in overtime the Chargers elect to receive the ball. The Colts kickoff and the Charger's bring it out to the 28 yd line (avg starting field pos. in the NFL last year). Now assuming your average team needs to get to the opponent's 35 yd line for a reasonable fg try, the offense now just needs to drive about 35 yds to put themselves in GREAT position to win the game.

At any point during regulation, a 35 yd drive could be considered a mild success for either side of the ball, but here in overtime it has all but won the game for the Chargers and all but lost it for the Colts!

Conversely, the Colts after kicking off need to:

1. have mild-to-moderate success on defense, forcing a punt after a 15-20 yd Charger drive. Then either...
2a. have a great return, bringing the ball out to near midfield followed by...
3a. their own 30-35 yard drive.
or worse...
2b. have a 'modest' punt return to the 20 followed by...
3b. their own 45-50 yd drive.

Either way, the Colts need to do ALL 3 things to have the same chance at shot at a win that the Chargers have with just a '35 yd drive.'

While it's true that football is a game where plays need to be made on all sides of the ball, the fact is sudden-death immediately and ultimately rewards scoring. So while the winner of the coin-toss can cash in on a victory by driving a 1/3 of the field, the loser of the toss cannot do the same by simply defending that same portion of the field.
That's the imbalance and that's the inherent unfairness.

The only solution is to guarantee each team 1 offensive possession whether by punt, kickoff, or turnover. There's no guarantee of equal number of possessions because the conservative argument is still valid. Ultimately, the players need to make plays. But guaranteeing each team has at least 1 chance to score ensure that equal effort is rewarded somewhat equally.

Alright, enough of this blather. Let's dig into these playoffs.

SATURDAY GAMES

ED REED @ Music City -3
oooh. This is gonna be one physical game, much like their regular season matchup. It's tough for me to pick a rookie QB on the road against a #1 seed coming off a bye. But the Ravens played the Titans tough all those weeks ago and the entire team is just better now.

The smart play for the Titans is to just be patient and run the ball no matter what the circumstances of the game. Ed Reed is just too scary out there.

Conversely, the Ravens may find it tough sledding trying to run against a Titans team complete with their DTs back.
Either way I think the Ravens can mitigate the Titans offensive output enough to have this game come down to a big special teams/defensive play. I like the Ravens in that scenario.

CARDINALS @ Carolina -9.5
Bear with me for a second. Carolina isn't that great a defensive team. Their secondary can be had and their run D is suspect. Now the Cards are only equipped to attack ONE of those weaknesses, but I look for them to continue using Edgerrin James enough to keep this defense honest.
Let's remember that the Cards played them close earlier in the season.

Edge is fresh, the Cards are playing with house money and Larry Fitzgerald is simply amazing. I think Carolina wins in the end, but the Cardinals keep it under double digits.

SUNDAY GAMES

Iggies @ The Meadowlands -4
Oh boy, do I have a lot of anxiety over this game. I hate the Eagles with a passion. These games are always close. In the playoffs they only get closer. Both teams know each other so well that the coordinators could have taken the week off. This is gonna be a slobber-knocker much like the Baltimore-Tennessee game.

The Giants have Brandon Jacobs back at full strength which makes a world of difference. He's their MVP and he's amped up for this game after weeks of inactivity. A juiced up Jacobs is a scary thought.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are a little banged up. If Runyan and Westy aren't near 100% this will be a long day for McBurger. Justin Tuck should be fresher than he was towards the end of the season and the entire defense will renew their commitment to containing Westbrook like they did in wk 10 as opposed to wk 14.

Ultimately I think this game will only be close for 2 1/2 quarters, I just don't know which. The smart money in the divisional round goes towards teams coming off byes and the Giants have all but cleared their injury report. But the Eagles are rallying together around the "everybody wrote us off" card. It might just be enough. Unfortunately I'm still not able to make a pick involving the Giants but I've given you enough to make an informed decision.

CHARGERS @ Schlitzburg -6
This game has a little bit of everything. It's a rematch like all the other games. When Flip Rivers has the ball you have a great offense versus a great defense. When Big Ben is under center it's the exact opposite, a weak offense against a weak defense but both with timely big-playmaking ability. We also have another team playing the "written off" card, like the Eagles. But when I see this game, especially where money is concerned, I see a game where the spread is WAAAAAY too large. Perhaps when factoring in the results of their last matchup, Vegas considered the rightful scoring as opposed to the disputed result (Steelers should have covered 4 with Polamalu's late TD).

I don't have much analysis to offer this game. Both teams annoy me. One went 8-8 the other has Roethlisberger and a swiss cheese offensive line. Also, they're playing in shitty-ass Heinz field. Just take the points.

No parlays this week. I just wanna sit back and watch these teams decide their ultimate fates.

Cheers!

"Glub Glub"

Anatomy of a Drink Pt. 2

A washout...a washup, maybe...
it feels like a a wash down.

It's a wash down and out.

Have you ever stood naked in a warm rain
with all eyes elsewhere?
You feel cleansed yet sullied at the same
time.
Irrelevancy
is washed away.
But there's more.

There's the privus and the intimus,
the exposed personal that becomes evident.
And that is the fire!
Such is the heat that breeds comfort and action.

Smoothest of comforts
and most violent of actions
sometimes left subtle all the same.

drip drop drain
of everthing that stifles.
It is the drown...

...the glub glub.

WILD WEEKEND

Welcome back sports fans. We took a couple of weeks off what with the holidays and all. And by the way, Happy New Years to you and yours!

It's NFL wild card weekend and it looks to be a wild one, indeed. The lines opened up earlier this week with 4 road favorites. Somewhat insane but when you consider that we have two 8-8 teams hosting games along with a Miami team that was 1-15 last year and a Minnesota team with Tarvaris Jackson at QB, its easy to see why these lines might be so tight.

But enough of all that, let's get right into it.

SATURDAY GAMES

Dirty Birds @ ARIZONA -1.5
This game was a tough one to pick. You have two competing playoff philosophies here. One says that you never go with a team that can't run the ball, and can't play defense. That's the Arizona Cardinals in a nutshell. Conversely, while the Falcons don't necessarily scare anyone on defense, they can control the clock with their run game and Matt Ryan has proven he can also hurt you with a solid passing attack.

But that's the flipside. Atlanta is trotting out a rookie QB which normally doesn't bode well for a playoff team. Arizona on the other hand has a 2-time league MVP with a Super-Bowl ring on his finger. They'll also be starting the veteran Edgerrin James who finally re-emerged in week 17 with 100+ yds rushing on 15 some odd carries.

Atlanta has been great at home and mediocre on the road. The same for Arizona and fortunately for them they will be at home in beautiful Glendale, where running the ball won't necessarily be at a premium. I think the Cards will have enough veterans in the huddle and will do enough to scoring to force Matt Ryan to make some plays with the passing game. And ultimately you gotta bet on a rookie to make rookie mistakes in such a pressure packed game. The pick: Arizona Cardinals.

COLTS @ San Diego +1.5
This is probably the easiest game to dissect. These teams play each other every year. There are no rookies playing in their first playoffs. Both teams have been on the playoffs and understand what it takes to win.

There's been alot of talk about how Flip Rivers was the hottest QB down the stretch, how the Chargers match up with the Colts so well and how much trouble (relatively) that Peyton has with 3-4 defenses.
Sounds to me like alot of nonsense. Or people trying to talk themselves out of picking too many road teams to win.

Here's the bottom line: Peyton Manning knows this defense as well as they know him. And this team just knows how to win close games, as opposed to the Chargers who've never been mistaken for a team full of heart. And the fact of the matter is that it is Peyton who has been the hottest QB over the latter half of the season. Ultimately this is an 8-8 team going up against a team with the 2nd best record in football. Let's not try to reinvent the wheel here. Colts.

SUNDAY GAMES

RAVENS @ Miama +3.5
The other rookie QB of the playoffs. In many ways he's less polished that his counterpart in the NFC, but unlike Matt Ryan, Flacco is on a playoff experienced team with just as strong a running game but with a championship-type defense to boot.

These two teams actually played each other a few weeks ago and unfortunately for Miami, it wasn't much of a contest. Miami has done pretty well with their bells and whistles offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been solid and Chad Pennington doesn't make mistakes. It will be interesting to see how they all perform against Lewis, Reed and the rest this second go 'round.

My pick: more of the same. Take the Ravens.

Iggies @ MINNESOTA +3
Ugh. Here's the game I've been dreading to pick. Were this the regular season I'd say stay away or make an over/under pick but with only 4 games scheduled this week we gotta show some seeds. Again we have competing philosophies doing battle. Minnesota has the better run game and stouter run defense. But they have Tarvaris Jackson at QB. I wouldn't trust that guy any farther than he can incomplete it.
On the other hand he's going against Meltdown McBurger and the Pied Piper of horrible coaches, Andy Reid.
Then again, the coach on the other sideline is one of Andy's proteges, Brad Childress!
What's a gambler to do?

In the end my decision is to just keep it simple. These teams are evenly matched in terms of big-game-botchability so I'll just take the better team for and against the run, the home team and the points. Vikings.

Alright, there you have it. My wild card weekend picks, and not a moment too soon. Games start in a coupla hours.

Not gonna make a parlay pick because there's just too much happening with these teams. But if you must combinate, take all my picks except for the final game, Eagles @ Minny. Or take that under (41) and stay the hell away from the Falcons/Cardinals.

Basically, under no circumstances should you be betting on both games simultaneously.
If you do, please seek help.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck!

Live Alone. Die Alone.

You feel a certain amount of loneliness for long enough and you just become confortable with it. You make yourself at home in it. It's a coping mechanism like anything else.

People misunderstand what loneliness is all about. It's not about solitude or not having someone to share something with. That's not where the pain comes from. It comes from a lacking. A failure. A deficit that's the result of what you want or expect at a certain time, and what is actually there. And after a while, if you're lonely long enough, the expectation no longer exists but the desire remains. It's the last thing to go. Were you to ever truly lose that then you'd truly be happy being alone. There would be no loneliness. But there is always a need. There is always a deep-seated desire. But you keep that at bay for the most part and instead manage your expectations.

That's where the reclusiveness comes in. That's how the grinch comes to be. And in all the things you see that can be fun, joyous or satisfying, and in all the ways that those things involve other people, other beings, other souls...you, instead, see sadness, hurt and despair. You no longer trust things to be what they are. You know the ugly truth and you reject it. Because instead of wanting to be happy, instead of wanting a life filled with joy, you want to avoid the the hurt, the sadness and the despair. It's too much to bear. And if a life without rejection, without deficit, costs you moments upon moments of fleeting joys and happiness, that's just fine. Because with no expectation comes no disappointment.

And what do you do for a life? How do you choose a life without joy? There's no malevolence in your grinchy attitude. Your expectation is now only quiet and solitude. Because that abides. That persists. That can come upon request.

The "grinch" comes when a life worth living tries to intrude on your life made tolerable. He grumps and growls when the world reminds you that somewhere deep inside you beats a heart that might not yet be satisfied with a life without love. Somehow, someway, inevitably, a blade of hope grows through the cracks of your concrete emotional solitude. And it grows with an eager yearning for light and love and nurturing. This single blade pierces through months, years, possibly a lifetime's thick of resolve and resignation. This little blade screams for more. It yearns for life. It threatens to shatter everything you've worked so hard to create and to avoid.

So you beat it. You crush it. You drive it back into temporary oblivion. And you let out a sigh of relief.
The earth no longer quakes.
The moon stays in orbit.
The sun remains safe, very far and very away.
You are alone again and that is as you expected.

Life becomes barren and loveless and the BEST part is that the greatest promise that day brings is the promise of nothing. Nothing more than whatever a sunrise and a fresh cup of coffee gives you every morning.

Safety. Solitude. Satisfaction.

Safety is an illusion. This life offers no guarantees.
Satisfaction is a function of the mind and of the heart.
Solitude is the only thing that is real. It's the only true constant.

You're born alone. You die alone.

I will model my life after this persistent reality.