It's NFL wild card weekend and it looks to be a wild one, indeed. The lines opened up earlier this week with 4 road favorites. Somewhat insane but when you consider that we have two 8-8 teams hosting games along with a Miami team that was 1-15 last year and a Minnesota team with Tarvaris Jackson at QB, its easy to see why these lines might be so tight.
But enough of all that, let's get right into it.
SATURDAY GAMES
Dirty Birds @ ARIZONA -1.5
This game was a tough one to pick. You have two competing playoff philosophies here. One says that you never go with a team that can't run the ball, and can't play defense. That's the Arizona Cardinals in a nutshell. Conversely, while the Falcons don't necessarily scare anyone on defense, they can control the clock with their run game and Matt Ryan has proven he can also hurt you with a solid passing attack.
But that's the flipside. Atlanta is trotting out a rookie QB which normally doesn't bode well for a playoff team. Arizona on the other hand has a 2-time league MVP with a Super-Bowl ring on his finger. They'll also be starting the veteran Edgerrin James who finally re-emerged in week 17 with 100+ yds rushing on 15 some odd carries.
Atlanta has been great at home and mediocre on the road. The same for Arizona and fortunately for them they will be at home in beautiful Glendale, where running the ball won't necessarily be at a premium. I think the Cards will have enough veterans in the huddle and will do enough to scoring to force Matt Ryan to make some plays with the passing game. And ultimately you gotta bet on a rookie to make rookie mistakes in such a pressure packed game. The pick: Arizona Cardinals.
COLTS @ San Diego +1.5
This is probably the easiest game to dissect. These teams play each other every year. There are no rookies playing in their first playoffs. Both teams have been on the playoffs and understand what it takes to win.
There's been alot of talk about how Flip Rivers was the hottest QB down the stretch, how the Chargers match up with the Colts so well and how much trouble (relatively) that Peyton has with 3-4 defenses.
Sounds to me like alot of nonsense. Or people trying to talk themselves out of picking too many road teams to win.
Here's the bottom line: Peyton Manning knows this defense as well as they know him. And this team just knows how to win close games, as opposed to the Chargers who've never been mistaken for a team full of heart. And the fact of the matter is that it is Peyton who has been the hottest QB over the latter half of the season. Ultimately this is an 8-8 team going up against a team with the 2nd best record in football. Let's not try to reinvent the wheel here. Colts.
SUNDAY GAMES
RAVENS @ Miama +3.5
The other rookie QB of the playoffs. In many ways he's less polished that his counterpart in the NFC, but unlike Matt Ryan, Flacco is on a playoff experienced team with just as strong a running game but with a championship-type defense to boot.
These two teams actually played each other a few weeks ago and unfortunately for Miami, it wasn't much of a contest. Miami has done pretty well with their bells and whistles offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been solid and Chad Pennington doesn't make mistakes. It will be interesting to see how they all perform against Lewis, Reed and the rest this second go 'round.
My pick: more of the same. Take the Ravens.
Iggies @ MINNESOTA +3
Ugh. Here's the game I've been dreading to pick. Were this the regular season I'd say stay away or make an over/under pick but with only 4 games scheduled this week we gotta show some seeds. Again we have competing philosophies doing battle. Minnesota has the better run game and stouter run defense. But they have Tarvaris Jackson at QB. I wouldn't trust that guy any farther than he can incomplete it.
On the other hand he's going against Meltdown McBurger and the Pied Piper of horrible coaches, Andy Reid.
Then again, the coach on the other sideline is one of Andy's proteges, Brad Childress!
What's a gambler to do?
In the end my decision is to just keep it simple. These teams are evenly matched in terms of big-game-botchability so I'll just take the better team for and against the run, the home team and the points. Vikings.
Alright, there you have it. My wild card weekend picks, and not a moment too soon. Games start in a coupla hours.
Not gonna make a parlay pick because there's just too much happening with these teams. But if you must combinate, take all my picks except for the final game, Eagles @ Minny. Or take that under (41) and stay the hell away from the Falcons/Cardinals.
Basically, under no circumstances should you be betting on both games simultaneously.
If you do, please seek help.
Enjoy your weekend and good luck!
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