PLAYOFFS!?!?!?

Hello-Hello-Hello!!!

It's the eve of the NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend and I'm sure you're just as excited about it as I am. Every game is a rematch of a very competitive game previously played in the regular season so things should get very interesting.
The top-seeds are coming off their byes and their challengers are all coming off big wild-card wins. It gets no better than this, folks. But we'll get to all that in a minute.
I wanna take this time out to talk about a few peripheral football issues.

Let's talk about the BCS...

Now I'm not gonna rehash the playoff debate (I'm for one). The fact of the matter is the BCS contract is set until 2012 so the debate can begin in earnest then. All we can do in the meantime is record and compile instances/evidence that supports whatever side of the argument we're on. But given the BCS system as currently constituted, there are still some things that need to be addressed.

Firstly, we have to acknowledge the fact that not only did Utah, champion of a non-BCS conference finish their season undefeated, but they did so by beating Alabama in the Orange Bowl. I understand the argument that teams playing in weaker conferences get weak national championship consideration, but let's be fair. Utah played a very balanced home-away schedule, including games against Top 15 bowl-teams like TCU, BYU, and ultimately, #4 ranked Alabama. What more can they do?
How is there resume any worse than, say, USC's or Penn State's?

Secondly, I don't consider the Oklahoma vs. Texas argument settled. If anything, OU's loss in the BCS Championship game has re-opened the Big 12 controversy. Not only does the orginal argument of Texas deserving a bid over OU by virtue of their superior head-to-head record still hold true, but now after the bowl games, the two teams don't even have identical records!

Texas took care of their business in beating a tough OSU defense in an exciting Fiesta Bowl. but unfortunately, Oklahoma fell short against Florida in a game with everything on the line.

At the very least, Texas should finish #2 in all polls. This of course will make OU's Big 12 championship even more of a travesty.

Finally, turning back to professional football for a minute, I'd like to address the sudden-death overtime debate. Conservatives argue that teams have no right to complain about losing without ever getting an offensive possession because playing defense is as much a part of the game as playing offense is. "Make plays and tackle" goes the argument.

The progressive position states that the game has evolved over the last 15 years with new rules that favor offensive production. And where once the team winning the coin-toss went on to win overtime a mere 4 out of 10 times, that number is closer to 7 out of 10 now. The inherent imbalance is statistically evident.

I am sensitive to both arguments, but both arguments miss what should be the most compelling point. Sudden-death overtime is inherently unfair because the team winning the toss (it is assumed that they will opt for possession) has the advantage of only needing ONE unit performing moderately successfuly to win the game. The 'losers' of the coin-toss, on the other hand need ALL 3 units to perform moderately successfully to win the same game!

For example, in overtime the Chargers elect to receive the ball. The Colts kickoff and the Charger's bring it out to the 28 yd line (avg starting field pos. in the NFL last year). Now assuming your average team needs to get to the opponent's 35 yd line for a reasonable fg try, the offense now just needs to drive about 35 yds to put themselves in GREAT position to win the game.

At any point during regulation, a 35 yd drive could be considered a mild success for either side of the ball, but here in overtime it has all but won the game for the Chargers and all but lost it for the Colts!

Conversely, the Colts after kicking off need to:

1. have mild-to-moderate success on defense, forcing a punt after a 15-20 yd Charger drive. Then either...
2a. have a great return, bringing the ball out to near midfield followed by...
3a. their own 30-35 yard drive.
or worse...
2b. have a 'modest' punt return to the 20 followed by...
3b. their own 45-50 yd drive.

Either way, the Colts need to do ALL 3 things to have the same chance at shot at a win that the Chargers have with just a '35 yd drive.'

While it's true that football is a game where plays need to be made on all sides of the ball, the fact is sudden-death immediately and ultimately rewards scoring. So while the winner of the coin-toss can cash in on a victory by driving a 1/3 of the field, the loser of the toss cannot do the same by simply defending that same portion of the field.
That's the imbalance and that's the inherent unfairness.

The only solution is to guarantee each team 1 offensive possession whether by punt, kickoff, or turnover. There's no guarantee of equal number of possessions because the conservative argument is still valid. Ultimately, the players need to make plays. But guaranteeing each team has at least 1 chance to score ensure that equal effort is rewarded somewhat equally.

Alright, enough of this blather. Let's dig into these playoffs.

SATURDAY GAMES

ED REED @ Music City -3
oooh. This is gonna be one physical game, much like their regular season matchup. It's tough for me to pick a rookie QB on the road against a #1 seed coming off a bye. But the Ravens played the Titans tough all those weeks ago and the entire team is just better now.

The smart play for the Titans is to just be patient and run the ball no matter what the circumstances of the game. Ed Reed is just too scary out there.

Conversely, the Ravens may find it tough sledding trying to run against a Titans team complete with their DTs back.
Either way I think the Ravens can mitigate the Titans offensive output enough to have this game come down to a big special teams/defensive play. I like the Ravens in that scenario.

CARDINALS @ Carolina -9.5
Bear with me for a second. Carolina isn't that great a defensive team. Their secondary can be had and their run D is suspect. Now the Cards are only equipped to attack ONE of those weaknesses, but I look for them to continue using Edgerrin James enough to keep this defense honest.
Let's remember that the Cards played them close earlier in the season.

Edge is fresh, the Cards are playing with house money and Larry Fitzgerald is simply amazing. I think Carolina wins in the end, but the Cardinals keep it under double digits.

SUNDAY GAMES

Iggies @ The Meadowlands -4
Oh boy, do I have a lot of anxiety over this game. I hate the Eagles with a passion. These games are always close. In the playoffs they only get closer. Both teams know each other so well that the coordinators could have taken the week off. This is gonna be a slobber-knocker much like the Baltimore-Tennessee game.

The Giants have Brandon Jacobs back at full strength which makes a world of difference. He's their MVP and he's amped up for this game after weeks of inactivity. A juiced up Jacobs is a scary thought.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are a little banged up. If Runyan and Westy aren't near 100% this will be a long day for McBurger. Justin Tuck should be fresher than he was towards the end of the season and the entire defense will renew their commitment to containing Westbrook like they did in wk 10 as opposed to wk 14.

Ultimately I think this game will only be close for 2 1/2 quarters, I just don't know which. The smart money in the divisional round goes towards teams coming off byes and the Giants have all but cleared their injury report. But the Eagles are rallying together around the "everybody wrote us off" card. It might just be enough. Unfortunately I'm still not able to make a pick involving the Giants but I've given you enough to make an informed decision.

CHARGERS @ Schlitzburg -6
This game has a little bit of everything. It's a rematch like all the other games. When Flip Rivers has the ball you have a great offense versus a great defense. When Big Ben is under center it's the exact opposite, a weak offense against a weak defense but both with timely big-playmaking ability. We also have another team playing the "written off" card, like the Eagles. But when I see this game, especially where money is concerned, I see a game where the spread is WAAAAAY too large. Perhaps when factoring in the results of their last matchup, Vegas considered the rightful scoring as opposed to the disputed result (Steelers should have covered 4 with Polamalu's late TD).

I don't have much analysis to offer this game. Both teams annoy me. One went 8-8 the other has Roethlisberger and a swiss cheese offensive line. Also, they're playing in shitty-ass Heinz field. Just take the points.

No parlays this week. I just wanna sit back and watch these teams decide their ultimate fates.

Cheers!