DON'T THINK! JUST DO!

Hello Ladies and Gentlemen!

Great to have you back for another round of handicapping!

The NFL regular season nears its end and with it come those all important late-season divisional matchups as well as teams jockeying for playoff positions. But more relevant to our endeavor is the fact that lines get REAL tight in the late season. I'm not talking about low spreads. I'm talking about Vegas getting real good at setting their lines. This will make my job a little bit more difficult.

Last week was a little tough but
we were still able to go 8-6 on the games we picked giving us an overall record of 43-29 over the last month or so of betting. That's about a 15% return on your money. Not too many investments giving you that these days!

I'm just saying...

THURSDAY NIGHT

SAINTS @ Chicago -3
Wonderful. The first of the foul lines. To be fair, this is one of your standard "evenly-matched-home-team-getting-3" lines. But still, what do you do with it? You could play it conservatively and just take the home team. But part of you feels like Drew Brees can pull this out with all his weapons back at his disposal. You don't wanna take the over because it's a cold Chicago night game. But taking the under (44.5) seems silly. I'm gonna make this my first upset/road pick. BREES!

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

PACKERS @ Jacksonville +1
The Packers have been doing a great job of disappointing me lately. I'd take the over (44.5) had I faith the Jags could hold up there end of the bargain. Shuffling their defensive backfield did not work for Green Bay. Neither did moving Poppinga to DE. On the other hand, Jacksonville is more one-dimensional than a Texans team with Matt Schaub. Let's give the Pack one last chance.

Megatron @ Indy -17 OVR 44.5
Biggest spread of the week. The Colts had no problem covering 2 tds against the Bengals, so this line makes sense. But jaysis. You wouldn't be human if a near-20-pt-spread didn't make you a little nervous. Detroit has weapons on offense. and by "weapons" I do mean Kevin Smith and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. Poor guys need a quarterback and a defense.
I'm not thinking twice about taking this over.

'Skins @ Cincinatti +7 OVR 36.5
Here are a few words from Clinton Portis after last week's loss to the Ravens:

"I guarantee you I know our system better than anybody else, I guarantee when we go over blitz pickups I don't miss my man. I don't know what it is, bro. If anybody got a problem with me, they need to talk to me. I don't know whats going on."

"If my man ain't coming, I ain't chipping nobody, I ain't doing nothing I ain't supposed to do. I'm gonna get out in my pass route and that's where I'll be. If somebody else give up a sack or anything else, that's on them."

"What I need to be around for is Sundays and that's what I try to be around for. So I mean, if you've got a problem with me not practicing and can't do it that way, maybe you feel like you need to sever ties, split ties with me? Split ties with me. But don't sit here and throw me out like I don't pay attention, like I don't know what's going on, like I'm making mistakes, I'm the problem. You know, so, it is what it is, bro."

"You know, one day it's chip on your way out, then if you don't chip and you get out and the quarterback gets sacked it's like, 'Oh, you need to help this man out.' So they don't know what they want. They want you to chip, they want you to block, Jason's on his ass all game long, you're trying to stay in and help, and then it's, 'Oh, you should have gone out, they was coming to you."

"Hey, bro, it ain't rocket science how to use me. They can figure that out. If they want to put the ball in my hands I can try to help the team win. They don't I'll try to do whatever I can. If I need to cheer Ladell on, I'll cheer Ladell on. I'm not gonna be bitter about the situation."

What does all it all mean? It means I'm betting all the clowns in this circus ass-back each other into covering the points. That's what it means.

Pirates @ HOTLANTA -3
This NFC South is turning into a slugfest. The Bucs betrayed me last Monday. The Panthers exposed that defense.
Fool me twice and you're not gonna fool me again!

NINERS @ Miama -6.5
WHOAH! The DOLPHINS are getting a touchdown spread? Lookit them all grown up, forming full sentences and everything!
Great win up in Toronto, but that was against the Bills. What more does Mike Singletary have to do to prove to you that he's not dickin' around?
Defeat the Wildcat? YOU GOT IT!!!

Bills @ The Meadowlands -8 OVR 41
ugh. Speaking of the Bills, they've inexplicably forgotten how to score touchdowns.
The Jets, on the other hand, simply are who I think they are.
Buffalo should be able to APPROACH twenty points (perhaps by way of Roscoe Parrishy antics) and therefore contribute their share of the OVER.

Oilers @ HOUSTON +3
Holee Shinola!!! Tennessee is 12-1 and they're only getting a FG against the Texans! By the end of this game Jeff Fisher's gonna be singing, "OH HOUSTON, LOVE DON'T LIVE HERE NO MORE!!!"

CHARGERS @ Arrowhead +5
There once was a time when a smart bettor would NEVER put money against the Chiefs at home. Well, either times have changed or I'm dumber than a bag of wooden hammers.

HAWKS @ St. Louis +3
Oh! If Georgia Frontiere was alive to see this Rams mess. Every week it's a shitshow. I thought it couldn't get worse than that debacle against the Jets in week 10 but it did.
Down 17, with the line set at 14, Marc Bulger faced a 1st and 10 @ the Arizona 10 yd line with 3 minutes to play.
ANY SCORE AND YOUR RAMS MONEY IS SAFE!!!
What does this donut do? He throws a pick-6 to Rodgers-Cromartie. 99 fuckin' yd return. Unbelievable.

SUNDAY LATE GAMES

Steelers @ CHARM CITY -1
What a game! This is what NFL football is all about folks. Steelers-Ravens, week 15, in a game that could decide the division. Ed Reed put on quite the performance last week. GOTTA love Ed Reed. GOTTA put your money in his hands.
B-MORE STAND UP!!!

BRONCOS @ Carolina -7.5
Steve Smith is an animal but he's actually not hard to cover. He basically runs posts and deep outs all day. I think Champ is up to it. The Panthers will rack up yards on the ground but if Garcia can go for 300+, I think Jay Cutler can keep it close.

PATS @ Oakland +7
I gotta be honest with you good people. I don't know what I was thinking with that Oakland pick last week. My disgust with the Chargers clouded my perception of the Raiders' ineptitude.
The Pats did me no better last week. Sure they got what THEY wanted out of week 14, but what about me?
What about us?
What about love?

Vikes @ ARIZONA -3
I don't like the Cardinals. They don't run the ball. They don't play defense. That kinda nonsense don't play come January. But then again, this ain't January and the 'kings are susceptible through the air.
So i'll take Arizona to cover at home in that big beautiful stadium of theirs.

SUNDAY NIGHT SACROSANCT

The New York Football Giants @ Dallas -3
I hate the fuckin' Cowboys.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Browns @ PHILLY -14
ESPN has GOT to negotiate flexible scheduling rights.


PARLAY OF WEEK:
NINERS, JETS, CHARGERS & PATS (8.37:1)