RUFF'S GRAND LOST THEORY

as part of my chinese new year resolution I'm gonna try to keep this short.

here's my theory:

GREATER BACKSTORY :

Jacob is something akin to an ancient Prometheus or Pandora, perhaps an egyptian analog that somehow did something fucked up and feels responsible for unleashing evil/iniquity/imbalance into the world, thus resigning himself and his "fuck-up" to exile.

I think Jacob was like an Ancient Egyptian scientist who was doing some wild scientific/mystical experiments on the island and Smokie was his "Igor-turned-Frankenstein". Somehow Smokie ended up as smokie and thus feels betrayed becuz he was suckered into believing that Jacob's goals were good, pure, whatever.

Or perhaps Smokie was fine with the initial captivity, agreeing that: “yeah...you can't let me out into the world like this. My corruptive influence needs to be contained. I'll exile myself here with you, Jacob.”

But then eventually Smokie's like: “UGH! This blows. Eternity is mad long. Hey Jake, how bout you let me out for a little walk?”

And Jake is all: "Nah, son"

And Smokie was all: “C'mon, bro. I promise I'll come right back.”

Then Jake says: "Sorry, killa. Can’t do it!"

But one day Smokie realises that Jacob can and does leave the island all the time and he's like EFF THIS! Starts to feel betrayed (you'll notice that this parallels the relationship of Desmond and Inman).

So at some point the two guys have it out with Jacob saying, "Look, you can't even leave for a minute. Your corruptive powers are too strong."

Smokie replies: "Dude, this is pointless. Mankind is evil anyway. They're fuckin shit up on their own!"

And thus began their little game, which perfectly explains all those convos between them during the days of the Black Rock.

That’s the Grand Backstory, but how do our heroes fit in?

The Minor Players:

For the most part I take everything we know at face value. We are too deep in the show's final eps for them to be giving us too many misdirects.

They were all brought here because they were candidates. I think the candidate search was hastened becuz Jake realised Smoke was making power moves (ie: the look of surprise when he hears Richard was sent to kill him by Smokie).

Now, for whatever reason we are left with X number of candidates.

But Jake not only brought these candidates here to replace him should Smokie succeed in killing him, but also as a means to of counteracting his escape plan should he die in the process.

There were like 100+ candidates but each of OUR guys has a special gift or role to play.

Hugo: is a facilitator of sorts. He communes with the dead and is generally a good troop rally upper.

Jack: is nothing more than his name indicates, a Shepherd, a natural leader. And like all shepherds he must “walk among us but not be one of us”.

He brought half the Losties to the caves. Was gonna bring them to the Hatch, brought them to the tower, got the O6 home. Gathered them up and brought them BACK to the island 3 years later. He did the same for everyone trapped in the 70s, bringing them back to the present.

He doesn't always know what he’s doing, mind you! I submit that, like any shepherd, when he's confused, BAD things happen and people die(caves, tower, O6 leaving). But when he's sure of his actions GOOD things happen, though people may still die (O6 returning, detonating the bomb).

I think his final mission will be to quide the Sideways losties back to the Island world (or somehow facilitate the 'refolding' of the 2 timelines) using Desmond as the conduit and/or to look over Jacob’s new flock of “Others” the way Dogen did in the past (their parallels are just too many, drinking, father-son issues, baseball, standing apart from those that follow, etc).

Jin & Kwon: who knows? let's assume their child is really important

Sayid: is a slayer. a killer. an enforcer. Throughout all 6 seasons we've seen nothing but evidence after evidence of him being called upon to do the dirty work, from breaking a chicken's neck at the age of 6, up until now. Sounds simplistic but I don't think Lost is that uncomplicated. Its complexity comes in how all the parts are interconnected, the interplay.

Sayid is a destroyer. They will need him to do what needs to be done (though possibly for the greater good).

This leaves James. I think James will end up staying on the island. I say this for 3 reasons.

1. He's got NOTHING going for him at home (in either world, mind you).

2. Of all the candidates he's the least likely guy (therefore it makes sense in that literary irony sort of way) yet he was touched the earliest and has spent the most time on the island.

3. Going back to my theme of "what have they done all series" James, for whatever reason, has CHOSEN to stay on the island time and time again.

The kidnapping on the raft wasn't his doing but he did come back.

He CHOSE to jump off the helicopter.

He CHOSE to not take the sub with Juliet in 74.

He CHOSE again to get off the sub with Jules and Kate in 77.

This guy’s just not meant to leave this island and at some point soon he’ll have a chance to board that sub again and he’s gonna say, "son of a bitch" right before jumping back into the Jacob-Smokie conflict knowing damn well that it will be a final decision.

Not sure if that makes him the new Jacob, Smokie or perhaps the new Richard but either way he’s on that island.

ALSO, going back to him having nothing off island. Let’s assume his 'happily ever after' involves either Kate or Juliet. I submit that neither of these two broads has anything going on off island either.

Sideways Kate just got caught and is headed for a long bid.

Island Kate just gave up Aaron (and Jack).

Sideways Juliet hasn't been seen and is otherwise irrelevant.

Island Juliet is dead.

So no matter which way you slice it, these chicks would probably be just as happy staying on the island with Jimmy McDimples.

(Ben and Locke could go a hundred different ways. Let’s just move onto the 3^rd and final part of my theory...)

The Major Players: The Widmores.

I think Charles Widmore has ALWAYS been on the right side in that he only wants what's best for the island. I think he knows the stakes, he knows the players and is only concerned with doing anything in his earthly control to ensure a positive outcome for the island and therefore the world.

Eloise on the other hand is a little more...i dunno...Machiavellian.

When Jack detonates the bom 1977, she’s preggos with Daniel who we know is raised off island. This means that she left the island pretty soon after the detonation with knowledge that she's destined to kill her own son. But none of that explains why she knows so much about timelines, Desmond, guys with cherry-colored chuck taylors, etc.

So here's the most radical part of my grand theory…

Eloise is working with the Smoke monster.

Off island Eloise is mad cryptic, all knowing and manipulative. Sure she knows Danny's destined to become a physicist and die on the island. But she ACTIVELY steers him in that direction throughout his life. Why, separate knob? Why?

I think the smoke monster came to her, perhaps in the guise of a dead Faraday. Maybe she sought him out. It doesn't matter. What matters is somehow Ellie and Smokie got together and made a deal.

She'd help him achieve his goals of leaving the island and in return Smokie would give her Daniel back and ensure that the world created by Smokie’s release would not be COMPLETELY corrupted.

This would explain why she's so god damned all-knowing in the normal timeline, why she works toward making everything that HAS happened happen AND why she is still so all-knowing in the sideways world.

That sideways world is the world that Eloise and Smokie agreed to as part of the deal. And think about it. Everyone whom Eloise allows Smokie to kill to achieve his aims kinda gets a reward in the sideways world.

Jack gets a son.

Claire gets Aaron.

Sayid gets to see Nadia.

The Kwons get to be together.

Hugo gets his wealth without the bad luck.

Desmond gets Widmore’s respect.

James gets to play ‘shoot em up bang’ with his little yellow sidekick.

Even Locke gets to live happily ever with Peggy Bundy.

(Kate seems to be ass-out but remember, she’s not a candidate so Smokie doesn't need to kill her to achieve his aims. He’s not breaking the terms of the deal by screwing her over. Besides. no one likes Kate so who cares.)

Smokie is surely out doing whatever a smoke monster does in the sideways world. But he keeps himself in check so long as ELOISE keeps everybody else in check. THAT's why she tells Desmond this is a "violation".

Widmore is completely oblivious to this deal. He seems so and it makes sense given the way he and Eloise act separately off island.

I also think Eloise put Ben up to killing Locke (though perhaps not in that manner) ensuring that Smokie would have a dead candidate to inhabit once they returned.

You'll notice that when she was helping the O6 return she insisted on having as many of them go back. This was to increase the chance that when Smokie “smokes” them all, he’d also be eliminating the “next Jacob”.

Obvsly the plan works, hence the sideways. But as we all know there are always variables.

Desmond is that variable. She's tried her best to control that variable (whether she was aware of his ultimate potential or not) but obviously it won't be enough.

HA! ok. obvsly that wasn't short at all and iIm sure I left some things out but you get the gist.

oh yeah, one more thing. Darlton promised us answers to the whole Libby thing.

I think Eloise put her up to giving Des that boat. How she went crazy afterwards is beyond me but I suppose we'll get answers to that later.

(I also wouldn't be surprised if Widmore put her up to it with prodding from Jacob off island. In fact, I think Jacob has been using both Widmore and Ilana, albeit separately, to help him stop Smokie McSmokerton)

Ok. That’s my time folks.

If I’m right SOMEBODY’S gotta send me a bottle of McCutcheon’s.

For What It's Worth...

Been absolutely devouring off-season NFL free agency and draft coverage this year. Never played and have no experience scouting but I do know football, the NFL, relative value and a thing or two about personality and perception. With that, let’s take a look at...

RUFF'S 1st EVER MOCK DRAFT

(Picks 1-16)

1. St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma Sooners

This franchise has just been terrible since releasing Kurt Warner; failures on the field, failues in FA, failures in the draft. Last year they did the right thing by not drafting a quarterback in the first round but now they have no choice (personally, I’d sign a vet or trade for one of Philly’s QBs then draft someone in round 2 or 3. But that’s me.) In any case I like Sam Bradford as an overall no. 1 a heckuvalot more than I liked Matt Stafford last year.

2. Detroit Lions

Ndamokung Suh, DT Nebraska Cornhuskers

Speaking of last year’s no. 1 overall, the Lions are still in need of O-Line help but their offense had no problem putting up points. The defense on the other hand was atrocious. Pairing a sure-shot DT like Suh with Corey Williams on the inside along with FA acquisition KVB on the outside is a great way to make a quick turnaround.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma Sooners

Bradford going first is an absolute boon for the Bucs as it guarantees them a top flight DT at 3. This pick and the last might flip if Jim Schwartz wants more of a 3-technique tackle but either way, both these teams are getting great players.

4. Washington Redskins

Russell Okung, OT Oklahoma State Cowboys

This team had a decision to make at quarterback even before Mike Shanahan was named head coach. Now it’s even more of an issue because Shanny has never abided mediocrity at the quarterback position. I think Jason Campbell deserves one last shot but even if he’s not the guy, you HAVE to shore up an O-line that was suspect before the retirement of Chris Samuels.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Brian Bulaga, OT Iowa Hawkeyes

Like all teams picking in the top 10, KC has a lot of holes to fill, particularly on defense. But first things first. You can’t win games without protecting your quarterback and running the ball.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma Sooners

Ditto.

7. Cleveland Browns

Eric Berry, S Tennessee Volunteers

Berry falling to Cleveland is another minor god-send. That secondary needs reinforcement and Eric can play anywhere in it. And let’s not forget that the AFC North will have them going up against Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Ocho Cinco, not to mention conference games against the Colts, Pats, Chargers and Texans.

8. Oakland Raiders

Anthony Davis/Bruce Campbell OT Rutgers Scarlet Knights/Maryland Terrapins

The early (and somewhat justifiable) run on offensive tackles puts the Raiders in an interesting spot. They were probably gonna go OT anyway and many ‘experts’ have them reaching for Bruce Campbell after his monster showing at the combine but Anthony Davis also fits the Raiders’ bill. He's got their requisite character concerns but is still possessed of all the physical tools and positional skills needed to contribute right away.

(btw, I listed 2 possible picks because both are equally probable and it doesn't effect my mock either way because no one else is dumb enough to take Campbell in the 1^st round.)

9. Buffalo Bills

Jimmy Claussen, QB Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Having the top 4 offensive tackles gone before they pick makes this an easy decision for the Bills. If for some reason the Raiders were to take Campbell at 8, leaving Davis still on the board, the Bills would probably take him here.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

Earl Thomas, S Texas Longhorns

In spite of all the defensive ends they’ve drafted in the last few years, this team still desperately needs to establish a pass-rush. Signing Aaron Kampman allows the Jags to address their troubling secondary with this pick. As a Giants fan myself, this is the first player I’m actually sad to see go because I’m VERY high on Earl Thomas. Watched him play at Texas and watched him at the combine and the kid is just smooth like water out there.

Plus you can't go wrong with a football player named "Earl".

11. Denver Broncos

Dez Byrant, WR Oklahoma State Cowboys

This projection is major-league conjecture. The Broncos are shopping Brandon Marshall and will accept no less than 1^st round value for him. This means they could potentially have 2 picks in the top 14. They could also just as easily get a veteran receiver in return for Marshall making this pick less of a necessity.

But if Marshal stays put this year, he DEFINITELY won’t be back for 2011 (assuming anyone will). And if he does get shipped before the draft, it will probably be for a late 1^st round pick. In either case, Dez would be the move here. If not, the Broncos will probably go linebacker.

12. Miami Dolphins

Dan Williams, NT Tennessee Volunteers

Can’t play a 3-4 without a dominant nose tackle. Jason Ferguson is old, injured and suspended for half the season. Let’s move on.

13. San Francisco 49ers

Joe Haden, CB Florida Gators

I’m hearing talk of C.J. Spiller here. That sounds dumb. They've got Frank Gore and "2009's Fantasy Fan-Favorite Handcuff", Glen Coffee. Offensive tackle would fit into Coach Singletary’s football philosophy but there ain’t none left. Secondary is the other major concern. In a pass-happy league, getting the best cornerback in the draft at 13 is both righteous and proper.

14. Seattle Seahawks

Everson Griffin, DE USC Trojans

The Hawks addressed some of their holes on offense with the 6^th pick and will have to upgrade the WR position elsewhere. Time to get a pass-rusher. Derrick Morgan might be rated higher but I gotta believe Pete Carroll is gonna grab the guy he recruited and coached out of high school.

15. The New York Football Giants

Rolando McClain, LB Alabama Crimson Tide

The Curious Case of Rolando McClain. The unquestioned leader of the Crimson Tide championship defense, McClain has all the instincts, discipline, intelligence and intangibles to be an impact inside linebacker in the NFL. He didn’t work out at the combine because of a supposed hammy and posted solid but not overly impressive numbers at his pro-day workout. But game tape don’t lie and Rolando’s got the goods. If he’s available at 15 the Giants execs will trip over themselves rushing to get that pick up to the table. Only the Broncos stand in their way.

16. Tennessee Titans

Derrick Morgan, DE Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This team lost DT Albert Haynesworth in 09 and it showed. Now they’ve lost DE Kyle Vanden Bosch so it’s no secret they’re gonna dip into this deep pool of productive defensive ends. Morgan is an awesome pass-rusher and stands tall against the run. Great pick.

Picks 17-32: Don’t know. Don’t care. All those teams had solid years so fuckem!

"Gotta use that LATEX...

...or you'll get that "I think I'm late!" text."
-Lil Weezy

NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 15

LATE AFTERNOOON GAMES

Bengals @ SAN DIEGO -6.5

It’s tough to predict how teams will perform in emotional games. Football is a physical sport that requires concentration, control and aggression. Teams usually benefit from higher degrees of focus and aggression, especially on defense. But people deal with tragedy in different ways. Some get extra emotional. Some people shut down. And even if the majority of players play with heightened aggression, it’s not always tempered with focus.

Given the fact that this isn’t a home game and that the Bengals traditionally don’t do well on the West coast, as well as the fact the Chargers are one of the best teams in football right now, I’m going to go with the home team.

Chargers.

Raiders @ MILE HIGH -14

The Autumn Wind blows into Denver’s Mile High Stadium but its winter in Colorado and the Raiders are starting their 3^rd string quarterback. What’s worse is the fact that their starting QB is perfectly healthy, he just stinks like hot garbage on ice. So Charlie Frye will be running an offense built on the running of Fargas, McFadden and the pass-catching of Zach Miller and Louis Murphy.

Speaking of which, TE Zach Miller was recently heard talking to rookie receiver, Darrius Heyward-Bey, in the locker room after a loss to the Chiefs.

[quote]”You can definitely work on catching the ball. It’s something you can improve on, just catching the ball the right way and catching a lot in practice”[/quote]

This is a conversation between 2 NFL receivers, the absurdity of which being properly reported on in the latest issue of ESPN magazine.

Let’s go with the Broncos.

PACKERS @ City of Champions -2.5

I’m still giving the Pittsburgh Steelers their proper respect as defending champions but they are ever so close to losing the right to be referred to as such; they’ve lost to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns over the past few weeks.

Meanwhile, back at Green Bay, the Packers have won 5 straight since getting upset by the Bucs.

They’ve gotten healthier on the offensive line which has given Aaron Rodgers the time to slice through secondaries, but it’s really the improved play of the defense, despite (or perhaps BECAUSE of) the absence of LB Aaron Kampman.

Unfortunately for the Steelers the opposite is true of their defensive play without Troy Polamalu. I’ve been watching football for 25 years and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a defense so negatively affected by the loss of one player, especially a safety. Polamalu is not the most technically gifted safety. He’s neither the fastest, strongest nor smartest safety in the league. But he plays with great instincts. He closes on the ball quickly and is a destructive force as a blitzer, run-stopper and as a defender in coverage. Commentators often say that it’s like there are 2 of him out there and I have to agree, because when you look at the Steelers defense it looks like they’re literally playing with a man short.

I’m taking the Packers.

NINERS @ Philadelphia -7

Some have criticized Coach Singletary for the way in which he welcomed rookie Michael Crabtree, making him a starter immediately after a contract holdout that went 2 months into the season.

I don’t wanna hear no never-mind about that. This kid is a player. With Vernon Davis and Frank Gore ready to ascend to elite player status, the Niners now boast 3 weapons on offense that defensive coordinators have to gameplan for. If they can get any consistency out of the quarterback position and that defense maintains its current level of play, they will division title contenders for years to come.

The Eagles, meanwhile continue to vex me as they have for the past decade. Just when I thought their reign of terror might soon be at an end with the aging of Westbrook and the uncertainty of McNabb and Reid’s futures with the team, they hit home-runs in back to back drafts adding speedy play-makers like Maclin, McCoy, Celek and DeSean friggin Jackson. That dude is electric, pure and simple. If Andy Reid ever gets around to developing a truly consistently ground game, and if McNabb could stop chucking balls at his receivers feet, these guys would give the Saints a run for their money.

Their defense sucks though. I never liked Brian Dawkins but I respected him.

San Francisco should be able to move the ball enough to score some points and their defense should make enough stops and force enough turnovers to keep it respectable.

Niners cover.

Bears @ CHARM CITY -10.5

Finally the Ravens have figured it out. Joe Flacco looked good last year as a rookie but he’s still a young quarterback in a league where the average starting linebackers and DBs knows more about the intricacies of an offense than any first year quarterback does. Gone (at least for now) are the days when the Ravens defense didn’t ask much more of the offense but to score 10 points and not turn it over. The irony is that this should have made the coordinators a little MORE conservative on offense than less. Flacco’s got a great arm and he’ll be a stud one day, but they don’t have any real play-makers in the passing game. The receivers can’t get any separation, so to ask Flacco to try to read coverages and make plays in the passing game is unfair.

But now the Ravens are using their best asset, Ray Rice to jab their opponents into submission. Sprinkle some play action and-POOF!-Derrick Mason starts hauling in balls, McGahee starts vulturing goalline carries, Lewis and Reed do the “U-Cane head-butt” thing and all is right with the world.

As for the Bears, they stink.

Ravens and the over (39)….EASY!

Bucs @ SEATTLE -6.5

Part of me wishes that Tampa Bay would wear their old “creamsicle” unis against the hawks in those garish “melon-ball” unis.

Check that—ALL of me wishes that would happen.

…

……

Wow. I have nothing else to say about this game.

Home team and the over (39).

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

VIKINGS @ Carolina +8.5

One of the reasons I’m putting these picks out so late (as in this afternoon versus this morning) was that I spent about an hour and a half shoveling snow. It actually might have been closer to two and half hours because I took numerous 5 minute breaks and a couple of 20 minute ones. Now I’m a relatively young man in relatively good shape and have always used proper technique when doing anything that requires lifting, pushing, pulling, and bending over. But lemme tell you, my back is killing me right now.

Why do I bring this up? Because the great Bill Simmons once made a point about how you don’t send a 50 year old man to go shovel the snow, you find his 25 year old son and make him do it. This was his theory as to why Brett Favre has recently eaten balls late in the season.

This is all I thought of while shoveling.

(That and the inexplicability of my not living in San Diego right now.)

Forecasted temperature at kickoff is about 32 degrees, getting down to about 26 by mid-game.

Percy Harvin is still suffering migraines and AD fumbles rock.

Still taking the ‘kings to cover but I’m also betting the under (42.5).

Saturday Night Fever

***SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Cowboys @ NEW ORLEANS -7.5 ±53.5

Look. I hate the Cowboys as much as the next guy, maybe more. But I wanted to look into this “December Swoon” thing and see if the Cowboys weren’t getting a bad rap. After losing last week to the Chargers the Cowboys are now 3-7 in December dating back to 2007. Certainly nothing to be proud of but as we all know Dallas is part of an NFC east division that perennially sends 2 if not 3 teams to the playoffs. Teams often have multiple division games scheduled in the final 4 weeks and such games are always competitive, especially in the east.

So let’s take a look at this year by year.

2007: The Cowboys went 13-3 and had their bye locked up before week 16. They went 2-2 that December, beating the Lions and Panthers weeks 14 and 16 and losing to the Eagles and Redskins weeks 15 and 17. Both losses were to division rivals, the Eagles being a perennial NFC powerhouse and the Redskins loss being a road game where starters were probably being rested.

2008: The Cowboys entered December with an 8-4 record on the playoff bubble. They went 1-4 that December, beating the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants in week 15 (albeit without Plaxico Burress or Brandon Jacobs) but lost to the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers. All 3 of those teams made it to their conference championships and one was the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

2009: As in previous year, The Cowboys came into December with 8 wins, although this time with a division lead in hand. They’ve lost both games so far, but as in years past one came from a division rival, The New York Football Giants, while the other came from the San Diego Chargers. Both defeats were from reigning division title-holders and San Diego is in position to clinch their division and the #2 seed in the AFC this coming week.

Tonight the Cowboys go on the road against the undefeated Saints, a team that completely embarrassed the mighty Patriots a few weeks ago. They’ll probably end up losing this game and the December swoon talk will continue. Now I understand that good teams find ways to win these tough games. And surely a .500 record against NFL teams of any type is not too much to ask.
But this swoon talk is a little overblown.

Having said that, I think the Cowboys come out and have a complete shit stain of a game. They’re either going to come out and be too conservative not wanting to make any mistakes against a Saints team that will kill you dead without prejudice…OR they come out so fast and loose as if to prove a point, in which case there will be mishaps galore.
Either way I like Drew Brees to go out there and do what he do, and that’s put 40-burgers up on the scoreboard.
Saints and the under.

Right Back Like I Left Something!

Took a bad beat the sunday night steelers @ ravens game a few weeks ago.

needed a couple weeks to lick my wounds. after nailing this past monday night 49ers cover AND the over, i think i'm ready to pound out these last couple of weeks.

Let's start with some....

Thursday Night Football

COLTS @ Jacksonville +4.5 ±43.5

Coach says that although Indy has clinched the #1 seed in the playoffs he’ll be playing all his healthy starters as per usual. Don’t know how much I buy into that but I gotta trust that they’re not gonna just take the next 4 weeks off from playing football.

Besides, the Jags are as good of a tune-up game in terms of stopping a solid running game as any.

Crowd will definitely not be an issue in Jacksonville and you’d be hard pressed to find me betting against Peyton Manning in a primetime game.

Take the Colts and take the over.