Eddie Blake Lives!

gonna need some electrolytes...

2010-09-26T11:30:00.002-04:00

Male lions sleep about 20 hours a day. I’m no different. Plus, I’m hungover. Be happy I’m posting at all.

WEEK 3 NFL LINES AND PICKS

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

Titans @ The New York Football Giants -3
If there’s gonna be a turnaround…

Bills @ New England -14.5
Bills play them tough.
Bu-ffa-lo.

Browns @ B-More -11.5
“I’m home, Charles….I’m home.”
Ravens.

Steelers @ East St. Petersburg +2.5
Trendy upset pick but I can’t bet against this defense with Polamalu still there.
Pitt

Bengals @ Carolina +3
Panthers stink.
Cincy.

Falcons @ N’awlins -3
Another sexy upset pick but I can’t fuck with Ryan on the road.
Saints.

49ers @ Arrowhead +3
This would be easy if it wasn’t at Arrowhead but I gotta believe in Coach Singletary.
San Francisco.

Lions @ Minnesota -11.5
I might pick the Lions every week.
Detroit.

Cowboys @ Houston -2.5
Changing of the guard? Dallas just has no discipline. I can’t with them.
Texans.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON

Redskins @ St. Louis +5
These guys play each other every year so I SHOULD be able to make an informed decision.
Rams.

Iggies @ Jax +2.5
Vick.

Colts @ Mile High +5.5
No Champ. No chance.
Colts.

Chargers @ Seattle +4
Gonna go out on a limb.
Hawks.

Raiders @ Arizona -4.5
Arizona stinks.
Raiders.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Jets @ South Beach -2.5
Gonna be a good one. Cromartie v. Marshall.
Wildcats.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Packers @ Soldier Field +3
C’mon….

PRINCE OF PARLAY’S PARLAY OF THE WEEK

Sorry abt last week. I got a little reckless. Gonna make amends with this “Road Warrior 7-pt Tease”:
BILLS +21.5, FALCONS +10, LIONS +19.5, RAIDERS +11.5. Odds at +200.

THIS IS AMERICA!

2010-09-19T09:36:00.003-04:00

"My president is black and my lambo is blue!

WEEK 2 NFL LINES & PICKS

Last week was a strong start. Went 10-4-1 by my count and definitely hit that primetime parlay. You really need to stick with me on these parlay and teaser bets. Anyway, week 2 is here so let’s get right into it.

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

Chiefs @ CLEVELAND -3

What a way to start the show. At first glance this looks to be a crappy game featuring two craptastic teams but I say nay! Aside from the fact that KC looks to be a bit more explosive with fantasy darling, Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster, the Browns strike me as an underrated team. I’m not gonna say much more because I make it a point not to watch games involving the Browns (hours that I just can’t afford to waste at my age). So who knows? I could be way off.

I’ll say this though, the line moved 2 points in favor of the Browns this week which doesn’t make much sense (but to me).

I’m taking the Browns.

Bills @ LAMBEAU FIELD -13

DAMN, did C.J. Spiller do shit with the rock last week. Killed my chances at a week one fantasy victory in my Kappa league. And AaRodge didn’t light the world on fire either. That’ll all change though. While the Bills have a pretty decent pass defense, they don’t have any sort of pass rush. I gotta trust that Aaron Rodgers aka: “The Future” will find a productive way to spend his time back there in the pocket.

Packers.

RAVENS @ Cincy +2.5

Fuckin AFC North man. If you enjoy chilly autumn weather, drinking full glasses of jagermeister, and anal sex, then you probably enjoy watching AFC North games. (Also, you should probably give me a call sometime. I don’t judge.)

Vegas is opening the door to a cover with that dangling ½ point and I’m walking through it.

Ravens.

STEELERS @ Music City -5

God, do I hate the Steelers. I don’t dig their offense with Big Benlisberger. I don’t dig their offense without Big Benlisberger and I damn sure don’t dig no VISTA of no VIEW!

I think they’re gonna do a good job of containing Chris Johnson so I’m gonna go out on a limb and say they find a way to cover the 5.

Take the Steelers.

Iggies @ DETROIT ROCK CITY +6.5

Boy, would I have liked the Lions in this game if both teams had their starting QBs.

You know what? Jim Schwartz had a week to gameplan Vick and Shaun Hill had a week of 1^st team reps. Plus, Megatron is impossible to miss. Let’s make this my upset (cover) special of the week.

Going with the home dogs.

Bears @ DALLAS -7

This line moved down half a point and I, for one, am thankful. Now watch it not even matter.

I’m going with Dallas.

Bucs @ CAROLINA -3

Another easy call. It might be close, but it’s an easy call.

Panthers.

Cardinals @ATL -6.5 O/U 43

I’m not sure if I’ll ever be able to get on board with the Matt Ryan era in Atlanta. I’ve got no issue with Ryan. I’ve got no issue with the Falcons. I have issue with Ryan with the Falcons. I just don’t feel like Matty Ice can represent the ATL like that.

I have no clue what to do with this game so lemme take the over.

Dolphins @ MINNY -5.5

I could see this being a low scoring affair. Two teams that love to (if not HAVE to) pound the ball rushing. Five and a half means I get two fgs and the touchdown cover? Cool.

Vikings.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

Rams @ OAKLAND -3

Is this the featured game in the L.A. market? How do those fans feel about this matchup? And how fast did I get over my pre-draft love for rookie Rolando McClain?

Raiders.

Hawks @ MILE HIGH -3.5

The Seahawks whooped up on the 49ers last week (and got Coach Singletary to thank them for it!) So I’m not happy about that. Maybe I’ll get on board with the Pete Carrol era in another week or two but lemme see them do some damage in Mile High first.

Denver covers.

TEXANS @ Washington +3 O/U 43.5

Fuck Houston and fuck Arian Foster.

Having said that, I’m no dummy. I gotta go with that Texans offense. Also, RFK stadium has got like extra gravity or something. Everything seems slower and more depressed, especially scoring.

Take the road team and the under.

JAGS @ San Diego -7

The Jags always fuck me hard at least once a season. Last year it was that week 5 game when they shutout the Seahawks 41-0 on the road. As a wise man once said:

“Fool me once…shame on…shame on you. It fooled me. Ya can’t get fooled again.” –G. Dubbs

Jaguars.

PATRIOTS @ The Meadowlands +3

This will be a debacle.

Pats.

SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME

The New York Football Giants @ Indianapolis -5 O/U 48.5

Y’all know the drill by now. This isn’t an official handicap. I will say this much. Giants always get torched by pass-catching tight ends and their special teams might be a problem this week. I’m not gonna tell you which way to pick but I WILL tell you the over is toast.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

CHAMPS @ San Francisco +5.5

You know what I love about Coach Singletary? The man got his ass whooped by one of the worst teams in the league last year, a division rival no less, and he got to the post-game press conference and thanked them for it. Literally thanked them for whipping their butts. Fuckin love this dude.

Saints.

PRINCE OF PARLAY’S PARLAY OF THE WEEK

7 point tease. Chiefs +10, Dallas to win, Vikings +1.5, Texans +4 and Saints +1.5. Money line is +350 on that so get on that.

Alright, kids. Daddy’s gotta go to work.

Good Luck and God Bless.

$20 CHINESE FOOD!!!

2010-09-12T11:22:00.009-04:00

I cannot BEGIN to describe to you how excited I get about the start of each NFL season, so I won’t.

Ruff version 20.10 is (or at least tries to be) shorter on verbage. So instead I’m just gonna direct you to this video of one of my fav Nike commercials. I’ve posted through various media many times before and while technically it’s about basketball, it still aptly describes my enthusiasm and zeal for what we are now only MINUTES away from.

Enjoy.

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

Panthers @ The New York Football Giants -6 (O/U 41)

These two squads would like to be mirror images of each other and they should be. But Carolina wishes it had the QB and receiving weapons that The Giants had while NY wishes it still had a powerful rushing attack like that of The Panthers.

As always I’m not a fan of capping Giants games but this over looks interesting and I THINK the Giants have it in them to actually cover one of the highest week 1.

Do what you will.

DOLPHINS @ Buffalo +3

I’ve been referring to the Miami Dolphins as the South Beach Wildcats for about 3 years in this column but if I continue to do so now it sounds like I’m riding the wave of So. Beach talk created by LeBron James’ “Decision”. Whatevers, joe. My shit is documented.

Fins cover.

FALCONS @ Heinz Field +1

How is this line only 1? To be fair, Polamalu is prolly more important to this team than Big Bad Benlisberger. But the quarterback IS still important to the team!

Falcons cover.

BROWNS @ East St. Peterburg -3

I’m not wasting more than 10 words on this game. (whoops!)

Cleveland covers.

BRONCOS @ Jacksonville -3

Tough call because both RBs might not be 100%. In the end I just like the Broncos more.

Denver.

COLTS @ Houston +1

This line moved which is great for gamblers because this game is ALWAYS close. If not in points than in competiveness over 60 minutes. A one-point spread makes this an easy call since The Colts always win no matter how close the game is.

INDY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON GAMES

PACKERS @ Philly +3

I’m not drinking the kool-aid on Kolb and my man-love for Aaron Rodgers (aka: “The Future”) is well documented. This is a no brainer.

AaRodge is a killa!

49ERS @ Seattle +3

Speaking of man-love, my feelings about Coach Singletary have also been given long-shrift in these pages. Vegas truly is lost when it comes to making lines in the first few weeks. Make your money, people! ARROWHEAD

Niners.

CARDINALS @ St. Louis -3.5

Ugh. I’m tempted to take the Rams but not when they’re GIVING points (which they’ll probably do both literally as well as figuratively).

Zona covers.

SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME

Cowboys @ WASHINGTON +3.5

You know how I know I really hate Philly and the Eagles? As soon as they traded McNabb to the Redskins I found myself not hating him as much. If it wasn’t for the fact that he’s still plays for a division rival I would probably root for him to do very well this year which he might do anyway.

I’m taking the points at home.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

RAVENS @ Meadowlands Stadium -2

I loved HBO’s Hard Knocks as much as the next guy but this is the REAL reality show. Even if you’re a big believer in the Jets there is nothing about them that tells you this won’t be a close game. Personally I think the Ravens win this with RELATIVE ease but either way they’re getting points so I’m taking them.

Chargers @ ARROWHEAD +4.5

Listen. We’re not gonna discuss this. Just do what I say.

Chiefs cover.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK:

As I mentioned before, Vegas is on some crazy shit these first few weeks. They just don’t have enough intel to make good lines. Some will be close but some are way off. Here’s a nice Primetime 10-point Teaser: SKINS +3.5, RAVENS +12, CHIEFS + 4.5

IT'S ALL FOR YOU!

2010-09-09T18:12:00.003-04:00

It is here.

The time has come.

We are minutes away from the kickoff of the 2010 NFL season. Tonight we get a rematch of the 2009 NFC championship featuring the reigning Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints hosting Bret Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.

I’m not sure if this particular game requires much commentary or analysis. The Saints are coming back with essentially the same championship roster. The Superdome is gonna be an absolute madhouse. But the Vikings have more than their share of question marks. Bret Favre is a year older, missed all of training camp and is operating on a gimpy ankle. Meanwhile is number one target, Sidney Rice is out for 8 weeks recovering from hip surgery and his other target, the dynamic Percy Harvin has been battling migraines for the last 5 weeks (not to mention all his life).

I’m only vaguely aware of what the line is (Saints -4.5) but I don't think it matters. The Saints are winning this one EASILY.

So get your Thursday night bet in now. I’ll be back at you in another day or two with the OFFICIAL NFL Kickoff Sunday Lines and Picks.

Holla!

RUFF'S GRAND LOST THEORY

2010-04-10T14:47:00.010-04:00

as part of my chinese new year resolution I'm gonna try to keep this short.

here's my theory:

GREATER BACKSTORY :

Jacob is something akin to an ancient Prometheus or Pandora, perhaps an egyptian analog that somehow did something fucked up and feels responsible for unleashing evil/iniquity/imbalance into the world, thus resigning himself and his "fuck-up" to exile.

I think Jacob was like an Ancient Egyptian scientist who was doing some wild scientific/mystical experiments on the island and Smokie was his "Igor-turned-Frankenstein". Somehow Smokie ended up as smokie and thus feels betrayed becuz he was suckered into believing that Jacob's goals were good, pure, whatever.

Or perhaps Smokie was fine with the initial captivity, agreeing that: “yeah...you can't let me out into the world like this. My corruptive influence needs to be contained. I'll exile myself here with you, Jacob.”

But then eventually Smokie's like: “UGH! This blows. Eternity is mad long. Hey Jake, how bout you let me out for a little walk?”

And Jake is all: "Nah, son"

And Smokie was all: “C'mon, bro. I promise I'll come right back.”

Then Jake says: "Sorry, killa. Can’t do it!"

But one day Smokie realises that Jacob can and does leave the island all the time and he's like EFF THIS! Starts to feel betrayed (you'll notice that this parallels the relationship of Desmond and Inman).

So at some point the two guys have it out with Jacob saying, "Look, you can't even leave for a minute. Your corruptive powers are too strong."

Smokie replies: "Dude, this is pointless. Mankind is evil anyway. They're fuckin shit up on their own!"

And thus began their little game, which perfectly explains all those convos between them during the days of the Black Rock.

That’s the Grand Backstory, but how do our heroes fit in?

The Minor Players:

For the most part I take everything we know at face value. We are too deep in the show's final eps for them to be giving us too many misdirects.

They were all brought here because they were candidates. I think the candidate search was hastened becuz Jake realised Smoke was making power moves (ie: the look of surprise when he hears Richard was sent to kill him by Smokie).

Now, for whatever reason we are left with X number of candidates.

But Jake not only brought these candidates here to replace him should Smokie succeed in killing him, but also as a means to of counteracting his escape plan should he die in the process.

There were like 100+ candidates but each of OUR guys has a special gift or role to play.

Hugo: is a facilitator of sorts. He communes with the dead and is generally a good troop rally upper.

Jack: is nothing more than his name indicates, a Shepherd, a natural leader. And like all shepherds he must “walk among us but not be one of us”.

He brought half the Losties to the caves. Was gonna bring them to the Hatch, brought them to the tower, got the O6 home. Gathered them up and brought them BACK to the island 3 years later. He did the same for everyone trapped in the 70s, bringing them back to the present.

He doesn't always know what he’s doing, mind you! I submit that, like any shepherd, when he's confused, BAD things happen and people die(caves, tower, O6 leaving). But when he's sure of his actions GOOD things happen, though people may still die (O6 returning, detonating the bomb).

I think his final mission will be to quide the Sideways losties back to the Island world (or somehow facilitate the 'refolding' of the 2 timelines) using Desmond as the conduit and/or to look over Jacob’s new flock of “Others” the way Dogen did in the past (their parallels are just too many, drinking, father-son issues, baseball, standing apart from those that follow, etc).

Jin & Kwon: who knows? let's assume their child is really important

Sayid: is a slayer. a killer. an enforcer. Throughout all 6 seasons we've seen nothing but evidence after evidence of him being called upon to do the dirty work, from breaking a chicken's neck at the age of 6, up until now. Sounds simplistic but I don't think Lost is that uncomplicated. Its complexity comes in how all the parts are interconnected, the interplay.

Sayid is a destroyer. They will need him to do what needs to be done (though possibly for the greater good).

This leaves James. I think James will end up staying on the island. I say this for 3 reasons.

1. He's got NOTHING going for him at home (in either world, mind you).

2. Of all the candidates he's the least likely guy (therefore it makes sense in that literary irony sort of way) yet he was touched the earliest and has spent the most time on the island.

3. Going back to my theme of "what have they done all series" James, for whatever reason, has CHOSEN to stay on the island time and time again.

The kidnapping on the raft wasn't his doing but he did come back.

He CHOSE to jump off the helicopter.

He CHOSE to not take the sub with Juliet in 74.

He CHOSE again to get off the sub with Jules and Kate in 77.

This guy’s just not meant to leave this island and at some point soon he’ll have a chance to board that sub again and he’s gonna say, "son of a bitch" right before jumping back into the Jacob-Smokie conflict knowing damn well that it will be a final decision.

Not sure if that makes him the new Jacob, Smokie or perhaps the new Richard but either way he’s on that island.

ALSO, going back to him having nothing off island. Let’s assume his 'happily ever after' involves either Kate or Juliet. I submit that neither of these two broads has anything going on off island either.

Sideways Kate just got caught and is headed for a long bid.

Island Kate just gave up Aaron (and Jack).

Sideways Juliet hasn't been seen and is otherwise irrelevant.

Island Juliet is dead.

So no matter which way you slice it, these chicks would probably be just as happy staying on the island with Jimmy McDimples.

(Ben and Locke could go a hundred different ways. Let’s just move onto the 3^rd and final part of my theory...)

The Major Players: The Widmores.

I think Charles Widmore has ALWAYS been on the right side in that he only wants what's best for the island. I think he knows the stakes, he knows the players and is only concerned with doing anything in his earthly control to ensure a positive outcome for the island and therefore the world.

Eloise on the other hand is a little more...i dunno...Machiavellian.

When Jack detonates the bom 1977, she’s preggos with Daniel who we know is raised off island. This means that she left the island pretty soon after the detonation with knowledge that she's destined to kill her own son. But none of that explains why she knows so much about timelines, Desmond, guys with cherry-colored chuck taylors, etc.

So here's the most radical part of my grand theory…

Eloise is working with the Smoke monster.

Off island Eloise is mad cryptic, all knowing and manipulative. Sure she knows Danny's destined to become a physicist and die on the island. But she ACTIVELY steers him in that direction throughout his life. Why, separate knob? Why?

I think the smoke monster came to her, perhaps in the guise of a dead Faraday. Maybe she sought him out. It doesn't matter. What matters is somehow Ellie and Smokie got together and made a deal.

She'd help him achieve his goals of leaving the island and in return Smokie would give her Daniel back and ensure that the world created by Smokie’s release would not be COMPLETELY corrupted.

This would explain why she's so god damned all-knowing in the normal timeline, why she works toward making everything that HAS happened happen AND why she is still so all-knowing in the sideways world.

That sideways world is the world that Eloise and Smokie agreed to as part of the deal. And think about it. Everyone whom Eloise allows Smokie to kill to achieve his aims kinda gets a reward in the sideways world.

Jack gets a son.

Claire gets Aaron.

Sayid gets to see Nadia.

The Kwons get to be together.

Hugo gets his wealth without the bad luck.

Desmond gets Widmore’s respect.

James gets to play ‘shoot em up bang’ with his little yellow sidekick.

Even Locke gets to live happily ever with Peggy Bundy.

(Kate seems to be ass-out but remember, she’s not a candidate so Smokie doesn't need to kill her to achieve his aims. He’s not breaking the terms of the deal by screwing her over. Besides. no one likes Kate so who cares.)

Smokie is surely out doing whatever a smoke monster does in the sideways world. But he keeps himself in check so long as ELOISE keeps everybody else in check. THAT's why she tells Desmond this is a "violation".

Widmore is completely oblivious to this deal. He seems so and it makes sense given the way he and Eloise act separately off island.

I also think Eloise put Ben up to killing Locke (though perhaps not in that manner) ensuring that Smokie would have a dead candidate to inhabit once they returned.

You'll notice that when she was helping the O6 return she insisted on having as many of them go back. This was to increase the chance that when Smokie “smokes” them all, he’d also be eliminating the “next Jacob”.

Obvsly the plan works, hence the sideways. But as we all know there are always variables.

Desmond is that variable. She's tried her best to control that variable (whether she was aware of his ultimate potential or not) but obviously it won't be enough.

HA! ok. obvsly that wasn't short at all and iIm sure I left some things out but you get the gist.

oh yeah, one more thing. Darlton promised us answers to the whole Libby thing.

I think Eloise put her up to giving Des that boat. How she went crazy afterwards is beyond me but I suppose we'll get answers to that later.

(I also wouldn't be surprised if Widmore put her up to it with prodding from Jacob off island. In fact, I think Jacob has been using both Widmore and Ilana, albeit separately, to help him stop Smokie McSmokerton)

Ok. That’s my time folks.

If I’m right SOMEBODY’S gotta send me a bottle of McCutcheon’s.

For What It's Worth...

2010-03-22T14:37:00.003-04:00

Been absolutely devouring off-season NFL free agency and draft coverage this year. Never played and have no experience scouting but I do know football, the NFL, relative value and a thing or two about personality and perception. With that, let’s take a look at...

RUFF'S 1st EVER MOCK DRAFT

(Picks 1-16)

1. St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma Sooners

This franchise has just been terrible since releasing Kurt Warner; failures on the field, failues in FA, failures in the draft. Last year they did the right thing by not drafting a quarterback in the first round but now they have no choice (personally, I’d sign a vet or trade for one of Philly’s QBs then draft someone in round 2 or 3. But that’s me.) In any case I like Sam Bradford as an overall no. 1 a heckuvalot more than I liked Matt Stafford last year.

2. Detroit Lions

Ndamokung Suh, DT Nebraska Cornhuskers

Speaking of last year’s no. 1 overall, the Lions are still in need of O-Line help but their offense had no problem putting up points. The defense on the other hand was atrocious. Pairing a sure-shot DT like Suh with Corey Williams on the inside along with FA acquisition KVB on the outside is a great way to make a quick turnaround.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma Sooners

Bradford going first is an absolute boon for the Bucs as it guarantees them a top flight DT at 3. This pick and the last might flip if Jim Schwartz wants more of a 3-technique tackle but either way, both these teams are getting great players.

4. Washington Redskins

Russell Okung, OT Oklahoma State Cowboys

This team had a decision to make at quarterback even before Mike Shanahan was named head coach. Now it’s even more of an issue because Shanny has never abided mediocrity at the quarterback position. I think Jason Campbell deserves one last shot but even if he’s not the guy, you HAVE to shore up an O-line that was suspect before the retirement of Chris Samuels.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Brian Bulaga, OT Iowa Hawkeyes

Like all teams picking in the top 10, KC has a lot of holes to fill, particularly on defense. But first things first. You can’t win games without protecting your quarterback and running the ball.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma Sooners

Ditto.

7. Cleveland Browns

Eric Berry, S Tennessee Volunteers

Berry falling to Cleveland is another minor god-send. That secondary needs reinforcement and Eric can play anywhere in it. And let’s not forget that the AFC North will have them going up against Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, Ocho Cinco, not to mention conference games against the Colts, Pats, Chargers and Texans.

8. Oakland Raiders

Anthony Davis/Bruce Campbell OT Rutgers Scarlet Knights/Maryland Terrapins

The early (and somewhat justifiable) run on offensive tackles puts the Raiders in an interesting spot. They were probably gonna go OT anyway and many ‘experts’ have them reaching for Bruce Campbell after his monster showing at the combine but Anthony Davis also fits the Raiders’ bill. He's got their requisite character concerns but is still possessed of all the physical tools and positional skills needed to contribute right away.

(btw, I listed 2 possible picks because both are equally probable and it doesn't effect my mock either way because no one else is dumb enough to take Campbell in the 1^st round.)

9. Buffalo Bills

Jimmy Claussen, QB Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Having the top 4 offensive tackles gone before they pick makes this an easy decision for the Bills. If for some reason the Raiders were to take Campbell at 8, leaving Davis still on the board, the Bills would probably take him here.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

Earl Thomas, S Texas Longhorns

In spite of all the defensive ends they’ve drafted in the last few years, this team still desperately needs to establish a pass-rush. Signing Aaron Kampman allows the Jags to address their troubling secondary with this pick. As a Giants fan myself, this is the first player I’m actually sad to see go because I’m VERY high on Earl Thomas. Watched him play at Texas and watched him at the combine and the kid is just smooth like water out there.

Plus you can't go wrong with a football player named "Earl".

11. Denver Broncos

Dez Byrant, WR Oklahoma State Cowboys

This projection is major-league conjecture. The Broncos are shopping Brandon Marshall and will accept no less than 1^st round value for him. This means they could potentially have 2 picks in the top 14. They could also just as easily get a veteran receiver in return for Marshall making this pick less of a necessity.

But if Marshal stays put this year, he DEFINITELY won’t be back for 2011 (assuming anyone will). And if he does get shipped before the draft, it will probably be for a late 1^st round pick. In either case, Dez would be the move here. If not, the Broncos will probably go linebacker.

12. Miami Dolphins

Dan Williams, NT Tennessee Volunteers

Can’t play a 3-4 without a dominant nose tackle. Jason Ferguson is old, injured and suspended for half the season. Let’s move on.

13. San Francisco 49ers

Joe Haden, CB Florida Gators

I’m hearing talk of C.J. Spiller here. That sounds dumb. They've got Frank Gore and "2009's Fantasy Fan-Favorite Handcuff", Glen Coffee. Offensive tackle would fit into Coach Singletary’s football philosophy but there ain’t none left. Secondary is the other major concern. In a pass-happy league, getting the best cornerback in the draft at 13 is both righteous and proper.

14. Seattle Seahawks

Everson Griffin, DE USC Trojans

The Hawks addressed some of their holes on offense with the 6^th pick and will have to upgrade the WR position elsewhere. Time to get a pass-rusher. Derrick Morgan might be rated higher but I gotta believe Pete Carroll is gonna grab the guy he recruited and coached out of high school.

15. The New York Football Giants

Rolando McClain, LB Alabama Crimson Tide

The Curious Case of Rolando McClain. The unquestioned leader of the Crimson Tide championship defense, McClain has all the instincts, discipline, intelligence and intangibles to be an impact inside linebacker in the NFL. He didn’t work out at the combine because of a supposed hammy and posted solid but not overly impressive numbers at his pro-day workout. But game tape don’t lie and Rolando’s got the goods. If he’s available at 15 the Giants execs will trip over themselves rushing to get that pick up to the table. Only the Broncos stand in their way.

16. Tennessee Titans

Derrick Morgan, DE Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This team lost DT Albert Haynesworth in 09 and it showed. Now they’ve lost DE Kyle Vanden Bosch so it’s no secret they’re gonna dip into this deep pool of productive defensive ends. Morgan is an awesome pass-rusher and stands tall against the run. Great pick.

Picks 17-32: Don’t know. Don’t care. All those teams had solid years so fuckem!

"Gotta use that LATEX...

2009-12-20T15:39:00.005-05:00

...or you'll get that "I think I'm late!" text."
-Lil Weezy

NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 15

LATE AFTERNOOON GAMES

Bengals @ SAN DIEGO -6.5

It’s tough to predict how teams will perform in emotional games. Football is a physical sport that requires concentration, control and aggression. Teams usually benefit from higher degrees of focus and aggression, especially on defense. But people deal with tragedy in different ways. Some get extra emotional. Some people shut down. And even if the majority of players play with heightened aggression, it’s not always tempered with focus.

Given the fact that this isn’t a home game and that the Bengals traditionally don’t do well on the West coast, as well as the fact the Chargers are one of the best teams in football right now, I’m going to go with the home team.

Chargers.

Raiders @ MILE HIGH -14

The Autumn Wind blows into Denver’s Mile High Stadium but its winter in Colorado and the Raiders are starting their 3^rd string quarterback. What’s worse is the fact that their starting QB is perfectly healthy, he just stinks like hot garbage on ice. So Charlie Frye will be running an offense built on the running of Fargas, McFadden and the pass-catching of Zach Miller and Louis Murphy.

Speaking of which, TE Zach Miller was recently heard talking to rookie receiver, Darrius Heyward-Bey, in the locker room after a loss to the Chiefs.

[quote]”You can definitely work on catching the ball. It’s something you can improve on, just catching the ball the right way and catching a lot in practice”[/quote]

This is a conversation between 2 NFL receivers, the absurdity of which being properly reported on in the latest issue of ESPN magazine.

Let’s go with the Broncos.

PACKERS @ City of Champions -2.5

I’m still giving the Pittsburgh Steelers their proper respect as defending champions but they are ever so close to losing the right to be referred to as such; they’ve lost to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns over the past few weeks.

Meanwhile, back at Green Bay, the Packers have won 5 straight since getting upset by the Bucs.

They’ve gotten healthier on the offensive line which has given Aaron Rodgers the time to slice through secondaries, but it’s really the improved play of the defense, despite (or perhaps BECAUSE of) the absence of LB Aaron Kampman.

Unfortunately for the Steelers the opposite is true of their defensive play without Troy Polamalu. I’ve been watching football for 25 years and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a defense so negatively affected by the loss of one player, especially a safety. Polamalu is not the most technically gifted safety. He’s neither the fastest, strongest nor smartest safety in the league. But he plays with great instincts. He closes on the ball quickly and is a destructive force as a blitzer, run-stopper and as a defender in coverage. Commentators often say that it’s like there are 2 of him out there and I have to agree, because when you look at the Steelers defense it looks like they’re literally playing with a man short.

I’m taking the Packers.

NINERS @ Philadelphia -7

Some have criticized Coach Singletary for the way in which he welcomed rookie Michael Crabtree, making him a starter immediately after a contract holdout that went 2 months into the season.

I don’t wanna hear no never-mind about that. This kid is a player. With Vernon Davis and Frank Gore ready to ascend to elite player status, the Niners now boast 3 weapons on offense that defensive coordinators have to gameplan for. If they can get any consistency out of the quarterback position and that defense maintains its current level of play, they will division title contenders for years to come.

The Eagles, meanwhile continue to vex me as they have for the past decade. Just when I thought their reign of terror might soon be at an end with the aging of Westbrook and the uncertainty of McNabb and Reid’s futures with the team, they hit home-runs in back to back drafts adding speedy play-makers like Maclin, McCoy, Celek and DeSean friggin Jackson. That dude is electric, pure and simple. If Andy Reid ever gets around to developing a truly consistently ground game, and if McNabb could stop chucking balls at his receivers feet, these guys would give the Saints a run for their money.

Their defense sucks though. I never liked Brian Dawkins but I respected him.

San Francisco should be able to move the ball enough to score some points and their defense should make enough stops and force enough turnovers to keep it respectable.

Niners cover.

Bears @ CHARM CITY -10.5

Finally the Ravens have figured it out. Joe Flacco looked good last year as a rookie but he’s still a young quarterback in a league where the average starting linebackers and DBs knows more about the intricacies of an offense than any first year quarterback does. Gone (at least for now) are the days when the Ravens defense didn’t ask much more of the offense but to score 10 points and not turn it over. The irony is that this should have made the coordinators a little MORE conservative on offense than less. Flacco’s got a great arm and he’ll be a stud one day, but they don’t have any real play-makers in the passing game. The receivers can’t get any separation, so to ask Flacco to try to read coverages and make plays in the passing game is unfair.

But now the Ravens are using their best asset, Ray Rice to jab their opponents into submission. Sprinkle some play action and-POOF!-Derrick Mason starts hauling in balls, McGahee starts vulturing goalline carries, Lewis and Reed do the “U-Cane head-butt” thing and all is right with the world.

As for the Bears, they stink.

Ravens and the over (39)….EASY!

Bucs @ SEATTLE -6.5

Part of me wishes that Tampa Bay would wear their old “creamsicle” unis against the hawks in those garish “melon-ball” unis.

Check that—ALL of me wishes that would happen.

…

……

Wow. I have nothing else to say about this game.

Home team and the over (39).

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

VIKINGS @ Carolina +8.5

One of the reasons I’m putting these picks out so late (as in this afternoon versus this morning) was that I spent about an hour and a half shoveling snow. It actually might have been closer to two and half hours because I took numerous 5 minute breaks and a couple of 20 minute ones. Now I’m a relatively young man in relatively good shape and have always used proper technique when doing anything that requires lifting, pushing, pulling, and bending over. But lemme tell you, my back is killing me right now.

Why do I bring this up? Because the great Bill Simmons once made a point about how you don’t send a 50 year old man to go shovel the snow, you find his 25 year old son and make him do it. This was his theory as to why Brett Favre has recently eaten balls late in the season.

This is all I thought of while shoveling.

(That and the inexplicability of my not living in San Diego right now.)

Forecasted temperature at kickoff is about 32 degrees, getting down to about 26 by mid-game.

Percy Harvin is still suffering migraines and AD fumbles rock.

Still taking the ‘kings to cover but I’m also betting the under (42.5).

Saturday Night Fever

2009-12-19T18:54:00.002-05:00

***SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Cowboys @ NEW ORLEANS -7.5 ±53.5

Look. I hate the Cowboys as much as the next guy, maybe more. But I wanted to look into this “December Swoon” thing and see if the Cowboys weren’t getting a bad rap. After losing last week to the Chargers the Cowboys are now 3-7 in December dating back to 2007. Certainly nothing to be proud of but as we all know Dallas is part of an NFC east division that perennially sends 2 if not 3 teams to the playoffs. Teams often have multiple division games scheduled in the final 4 weeks and such games are always competitive, especially in the east.

So let’s take a look at this year by year.

2007: The Cowboys went 13-3 and had their bye locked up before week 16. They went 2-2 that December, beating the Lions and Panthers weeks 14 and 16 and losing to the Eagles and Redskins weeks 15 and 17. Both losses were to division rivals, the Eagles being a perennial NFC powerhouse and the Redskins loss being a road game where starters were probably being rested.

2008: The Cowboys entered December with an 8-4 record on the playoff bubble. They went 1-4 that December, beating the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants in week 15 (albeit without Plaxico Burress or Brandon Jacobs) but lost to the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers. All 3 of those teams made it to their conference championships and one was the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

2009: As in previous year, The Cowboys came into December with 8 wins, although this time with a division lead in hand. They’ve lost both games so far, but as in years past one came from a division rival, The New York Football Giants, while the other came from the San Diego Chargers. Both defeats were from reigning division title-holders and San Diego is in position to clinch their division and the #2 seed in the AFC this coming week.

Tonight the Cowboys go on the road against the undefeated Saints, a team that completely embarrassed the mighty Patriots a few weeks ago. They’ll probably end up losing this game and the December swoon talk will continue. Now I understand that good teams find ways to win these tough games. And surely a .500 record against NFL teams of any type is not too much to ask.
But this swoon talk is a little overblown.

Having said that, I think the Cowboys come out and have a complete shit stain of a game. They’re either going to come out and be too conservative not wanting to make any mistakes against a Saints team that will kill you dead without prejudice…OR they come out so fast and loose as if to prove a point, in which case there will be mishaps galore.
Either way I like Drew Brees to go out there and do what he do, and that’s put 40-burgers up on the scoreboard.
Saints and the under.

Right Back Like I Left Something!

2009-12-17T20:16:00.004-05:00

Took a bad beat the sunday night steelers @ ravens game a few weeks ago.

needed a couple weeks to lick my wounds. after nailing this past monday night 49ers cover AND the over, i think i'm ready to pound out these last couple of weeks.

Let's start with some....

Thursday Night Football

COLTS @ Jacksonville +4.5 ±43.5

Coach says that although Indy has clinched the #1 seed in the playoffs he’ll be playing all his healthy starters as per usual. Don’t know how much I buy into that but I gotta trust that they’re not gonna just take the next 4 weeks off from playing football.

Besides, the Jags are as good of a tune-up game in terms of stopping a solid running game as any.

Crowd will definitely not be an issue in Jacksonville and you’d be hard pressed to find me betting against Peyton Manning in a primetime game.

Take the Colts and take the over.

So Late. So sorry.

2009-11-23T18:47:00.004-05:00

Like most people, I believe in many things. I believe in gods and monsters. I believe in supernatural phenomena. I believe in fate & destiny and reason & science. I believe in freedom. I believe in order and chaos. I believe in structure and discipline. I believe in conservatism and progressive liberalism. I believe in abiding fundament. I believe in change. I believe we are masters of creation. I believe we are slaves to a fabricated and meaningless existence.

But resolving all that seeming contradiction comes from my belief in 3 things:

Context, Consistency and Control.

What the hell am I talking about?

CONTEXT: Everything must be put in its proper frame of reference in order to be properly examined and evaluated. It’s sort of my existential induction of Einstein’s Special Relativity. The same way one can not accurately measure the mass, speed, or any other physical property of an object without putting it in its proper frame of reference, one cannot accurately measure any human thought, word or deed without doing the same.

A man stands on a flatbed section of a train moving 80 mph and fires a fastball off the back and all his fellow passengers say, “Wow!” as they measure 92 on the gun.

But the scout who happens to be standing at the junction as this circus passes by says, “What are these idiots talking about? That thing barely broke 10 on MY gun!”

Today, we all know that the problem here is CONTEXT.

Let’s imagine that the train, the flatbed, the passengers and the pitcher (everything on the track but the ball) are all invisible. The passengers on the train had a proper frame of reference that was not the same as the rube standing idly by at the junction.

The passengers saw a ball at rest in the pitchers hand that then raced away from them at 92 miles per hour, the rube saw a ball coming TOWARDS him at 80 mph, slow down, stop for an instant, then start moving the other way at about 12 miles per hour.

Terrific. Let’s talk about CONSISTENCY.

In addition to the Newtonian consistency in observable phenomena that Einstein proved exists in cases like the one above, I also believe in consistency in terms of BALANCE. Call it what you want, karma, yin-yang, action-reaction, cause and effect. That’s all fine, but my belief also entails the ACCEPTANCE of that effect, that reaction, that balancing variable of an equation.

We’ve all been in or heard an argument involving a “moral relativist.” At some point someone always pulls out the “What if someone raped and killed you wife and children?”

Part of the problem in this argument is semantic. The relativist might say murder is not inherently “wrong” or “bad” or “evil”. This isn’t the same as saying that it is something that a particular person or group of people would rather not happen.

Millions of Americans wanted Michael Phelps to propel himself through an aqueous medium at a marginally faster rate than 7 other people near him. Any of the other guys could have touched the wall first. Americans would rather it NOT happened. But that didn’t make either occurrence wrong or right.

Of course malicious acts such as murder inspire more visceral emotions and reactions. But it’s still just an action that you either would like to see or experience or not.

I don’t want my friend murdered. Most people in a civilized society don’t want him/her murdered. But the “murderer” does (and maybe whatever worms are waiting to feast on his body wouldn’t mind either).

It just so happens that the rest of an organized society have agreed (and rightly so) that it’s better if we don’t have dudes knocking each other upside the head with rocks (but even if that WERE the case, would bodies be dropping at a rate greater than, say, cancer deaths, auto-accidents, heart-attacks etc?).

So saying it’s not “wrong” is not the same as saying “it’d be better and nicer and probably more spiritually enlightening if this thing DIDN’T happen”.

Putting semantics aside it’s not incorrect to say the death of Herbert X wasn’t really bad for the state he lived in. It wasn’t bad for the country in any noticeable way. The earth doesn’t care. The universe doesn’t care. And honestly, god probably doesn’t care either.

But everyone who KNOWS Herbert X cares. People who know of him, or relate to him or who are sympathetic to that sort of thing all care. The church cares. The state cares. The Law cares.

So now, there is a CONSEQUENCE.

The victim’s brother takes a baseball bat to the murderer’s head. Or maybe his neighbors turn him over to the authorities. The state presses charges. All these are actions that individual entities take because something happened that related to them. It affected THEIR frames of reference.

If in the murderer’s frame of reference Herbert’s death pleases him, so be it. And if this guy knew the consequences and was willing to accept them…or even if he didn’t but was willing to come to terms with whatever consequence he was ignorant of, then there’s no way I can say that what he did was wrong. It’s HIS frame of reference. That is the context for the “right vs. wrong” evaluation.

Right vs. Wrong isn’t a matter of morality. It’s a matter of BALANCE, the balance between your thoughts and emotions BEFORE a decision and those AFTER. Regret and remorse after-the-fact betray previous decision making. That incongruence makes something “wrong”.

Finally we come to CONTROL, which encompasses everything mentioned above. When you have a proper understanding of these other concepts then you can start exercising some control of what would otherwise seem chaotic.

And it is!

As far as any individual is concerned there IS chaos. There are things operating in, around and on you, of which you have little to no understanding. That can seem chaotic. But to the guy pulling all the strings it all makes sense. It might be a tragic sense, or a comedic sense, or a malicious sense. But there is an internal logic to it.

You CAN exercise control to the degree that you can understand what is happening about you, however.

You can be in a federal prison and be in control. If you consciously and purposefully chose the actions that put you there, then you are your own jailer. And you may not have foreseen the conditions of your confinement or the length. But the degree to which you were willing to accept it, acknowledging that you cannot me cognizant of ALL things, is the degree to which exercised control.

This is how people in the direst of circumstances can remain calm or happy and those in seemingly utopian conditions can be miserable.

Pats lost.

Colts won.

Those are just the results. Whether Belichek made the “right or wrong” call on 4^th and 2 from the 28 has NOTHING to do with the result of the game. It has EVERYTHING to do with what we just talked about (didn’t think I’d get here, huh?)

Up 6 points on the fat side of the 2 minute warning Belichek was faced with the decision to either punt or go for it. He chose to go for it.

Doesn’t matter if you get it or not. A new universe opens up once you put something into action (suppose they made the 1^st down but Brady suffered a season ending injury on the play. Go ahead and follow through on your kneel-to-win-the-game-plan, but your season’s plans are up in smoke). But what DOES matter is that your decisions and actions after the fact are consistent with your thinking before. They don’t have to be the SAME decisions, just consistent with your thinking.

You make the decision to go for it for one or both of the following reasons:

1. You have no confidence in your defense, were they to punt the ball.

2. You have extraordinary amount of confidence in your offense to get that 1^st down in the toughest of circumstances.

We aren’t privy to Belichek’s thoughts, but we are privy to the decisions he made after turning it over on downs. We can therefore evaluate those decisions for consistency.

The ONLY action that would have justified the gamble was to let the Colts score on the next snap.

If the reason for the gamble was a lack of confidence in his defense to defend 75 yards for 2 minutes, then he should have had even LESS confidence in them defending only 30 yards for 2 minutes. To be willing to make that defensive stand given those unfortunate circumstance means you should have been willing to do the same in better circumstances. And not only did this put him out of balance but he also relinquished control.

If he believed his offense gave him the best chance to win, why not put the ball back in their hands with as much time as possible. Only a field goal was necessary. A return to the 30 would put them more or less in the same circumstances as Peyton, needing to make a couple of first downs to get a shot at kicking the game winner. I’d rather 4 shots at ten yards than 1 shot at 2.

In the end he only left his offense with 9 seconds to win the game. Not only did he give up the control he had but he put his players in a position to get injured in an impossible situation (Josh Cribs and remember how Jay Alford speared Brady him on the 2^nd to last snap in the SB).

Context.

Consistency.

Control.

I’m just gonna run through these picks quickly

***NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 11***

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Dolphins@ Carolina -3.5

Already done but there’s no way I woulda touched anything but the under.

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

Browns @ THE MOTOR CITY -3.5

Both teams are terrible but the Browns defense isn’t SUPREMELY terrible nor is the Detroit offense.

Bills @ JACKSONVILLE -9

The Bills ARE supremely terrible and will not stop MoJo and MSW.

Steelers @ ARROWHEAD +10.5

Troy’s out and it’s a road game.

COLTS @ Charm City +1.5

gotta take Peyton to win by 2.

FALCONS @ THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS -7 ±45.5

Gonna be a big day for Gonzo but I like the UNDER.

49ers @ LAMBEAU FIELD-6.5

AaRodge is a stunna.

SEAHAWKS @ MINNESOTA -10.5 ±46.5

35-13? At least!

Take the over.

Braves @ COWBOYS STADIUM -11

not after losing in Green Bay.

Saints @ EAST ST. PETERSBURG +10.5

Saints need Sedrick Ellis back.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

CARDINALS @ The Georgia Dome +9

Cards match up too nicely against the Rams.

Jets @ FOXBOROUGH -10.5

I believe Mr. Sapp called it a “40-burger.”

BENGALS @ The Black Hole +9

I shouldn’t take the Bengals on the west coast but I will.

CHARGERS @ Mile High +4

Somethings gone wrong in Denver.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

IGGIES @ Soldier Field +3

Not even close.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

TITANS @ Houston -4.5

Tough one. Shitty “no-man’s land” line so I just gotta go with who I think will win.

Can’t say “Happy Hunting!” since I was so late with this. I’m posting this mainly for the Belichek analysis and to record what my picks were before Sunday.

And obviously there’s nothing left to parlay, but Titans and the over isn’t a bad play.

Later!

The Elusive

2009-11-15T00:50:00.008-05:00

Damn Green Bay upset is all that stood between me and TOTAL financial supremacy.

”Playtime’s ova, boy!”

The Last Dragon.
(sigh)
What a great friggin’ movie. Do you know anyone who’s seen it and not liked it? I don’t. I’ve seen that film at least one hundred times and it never disappoints. There isn’t a single frame from a single scene that isn’t funny, interesting, awesome or ridiculous on some level.

There’s been talk about a sequel or remake for some time now and while I’m sure Taimak is still in great physical shape (hey, remember when he played the date-rapist in the season one eps. of ‘A Different World?), it just wouldn’t be the same. Little Richie’s all grown up. Vanity gained weight and found God (not sure of the order) and worst of all, Sho’Nuff is dead.

While on some level it would be cool to see Samuel Leroy Jackson ham it up as the Shogun of Harlem, the truth is Julius Carry OWNED that role. Who else you know could pull off the football shoulder-pads/red gi-pants/chuck taylor combo?
And was he not rockin’ the “real shades” shades a full 2 decades before Kanye hit the scene?

***NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 10***

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

JAGUARS @ The Meadowlands -6.5
Home teams coming off byes have been doing pretty well ATS but that’s almost a TD we’re talking about here. There’s a chance I’m mixing my fantasy perspective with my NFL perspective but there’s no denying that The Jets will have a tough time stopping MJD without Kris Jenkins.
Jaaaaaaaags.

Broncos @ JACK KENT COOKE +3.5
Seeing a player as tough as Clint P. lie face down and motionless in the turf last Sunday was a bit disturbing. Washington should seriously think about shutting it down for the season. As it is they’re just doing it a player at a time, one week at a time. That said, Broncos are on a short week, are traveling east for a one o’clock game and are giving more than a FG to a defense that’s still pretty solid.

”Oh man… I bet Cooley is pickin’ Ladell up off the waiver wire RIGHT NOW!”

Bengals @ THE CITY OF CHAMPIONS -7
Here’s where the rubber hits the road.
Bengals win this and they’ll probably go 6-0 in the division. But the Steelers defense is as solid as usual and the offensive line held up pretty well run-blocking AND in pass protection versus the Broncos.
Look for Pittsburgh to start restoring order in the AFC North.

Bills @ MUSIC CITY -8.5
Vegas refused to give up on the Titans this year which is unfortunate because had they done so, we could clean up on a couple of sub-touchdown lines. Eight and a half is scary but Chris Johnson is scarier.
Titans all day.

The Lions @ THE METRODOME -16.5
I always seem to make an “all-day” reference leading into a Vikings Game. Lemme tell you exactly how this game is going to go. Detroit is going to keep it relatively close for about 12 minutes (17-10ish in the 2nd quarter. They’ll find themselves down two scores in and around halftime and the final score will be something like 38-17.
Now I haven’t done the math. Is that more than 16.5 points?
If it is, then take the Vikings.

The Saints @ THE GEORGIA DOME -13.5
Lemme tell you how this game is going to go. The Rams are going to come in with one mission: Deliver a steady, yet ample dosage of Steve Jax.
The Saints, too will have only one mission: to stay the constant flow of Steve Jax.
Two problems:

Steve Jax is unstoppable.
The only thing that Steve Jax chews up more than yards, is time.

There just won’t be enough time for the Saints to rack up a 2 TD lead…or they will...wha-evah.

Nah. The OTHER Steve Jax. But yeah, this guy’s a handful too.

DIRTY BIRDS @ Carolina +1.5
NFC SOUTH ALERT!
NFC SOUTH ALERT!
These games are always close (just not “Panthers-covering-2” close).
Falcons.

BUCS @ South Beach -10
A wise man once told me that the battle of the Florida-penis always goes WAAAAAY under. (I might wanna reword that.)
Since I’m saving my chicken-shit bets for the late games I’ll just take those double digit points.
I believe in you, Josh Freeman!

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

Chiefs @ The Black Hole -2 (±36.5)
Ah, the 4 o’clock games and not a moment too soon. Two friggin’ points?! What am I posta do with that? I’m not saying it’s wrong. But hell’s bells! There’s no way to predict what’ll happen with these two teams.
Except of course for the…
OVAAAHHH!!!!

’hawks @ Arizona -8.5 (±46.5)
You’d hafta be insane to take the Cardinals to cover this many points at home versus the hawks. I mean, the Cards can score points. But not every DC is stoopid enough to single cover Larry Fitzgerald for an entire half.
How about another…
OVAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

Iggies @ SAN DIEGO -1

”But I’m throwing behind my receivers by like...5yards! Just like you said!”
“Yeah, but they're still catchable. Flick your wrist like this…that way the ball goes right into the dirt.

COWBOYS @ Green Bay +3
Of all the indignities!!! The Packers are GETTING 3 points in the frozen tundra! This is what happens when you lose in epic-fail-fashion to the East St. Petersberg Creamsicles. (I believe in you Josh Freeman!)
AaRod will always have a place on my fantasy team (no negative points for bad sacks), but as long as that offensive line is giving it up like a fat girl on prom night, and as long as that D-fensive line is penetrating like a USA Today article, IIII’M gonna keep spitting out these similes…
…while taking the Cowboys to cover.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

PATRIOTS @ Indianapolis -3
If Troy Aikman were making this pick:

"I’m not so sure The Indianapolis Colts have ever been able to outplay New England to the point where they could establish a lead that Tom Brady and these New England Patriots wouldn’t be able to come back from.
If I were a betting man, and I’m not…but if I were, I think I'd like to take the New England Patriots and that field goal all the way to the bank.”

Thanks, Troy.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

RAVENS @ The Cleve +10.5
NFL 2009 Flex Scheduling: A week too late and a night too soon.
Ravens

PARLAY OF THE WEEK:

BANG!!!

C’mon folks! You gotta give it up for my POTWs. Last week I knocked yet another one out the park. That one paid 7 on the dollar. I GOTTA be well over 50% on these big bets so I can afford to go a little crazy and try to shoot the moon.
6-TEAM TEASE: Steelers to win, Titans -1.5, Pats +10, Ravens -3.5, KC/Oak OVR 30.5, Sea/Zona OVR 40.5

Happy Hunting!

"MOOO-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHHH!!!"

MODERN MARVEL

2009-11-07T19:25:00.005-05:00

Took last week off…

...needed to relax.

And it’s a good thing I did because last week was crazy.

Not sure where I left off as far as a YTD record but this week I’m gonna try something different.

I’m not picking any over/unders. Everything is straight up ATS.

LET’S GO!

****NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 9****

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

CHIEFS @ Jacksonville -6.5

These 2 teams couldn’t be more different. The Chiefs are an old team without a running game but with a great home-field advantage. The Jags are barely 15 years old, have MJD running the ball but can barely draw 20K to the stadium.

None of this has anything to do with my picking the Chiefs to cover.

RAVENS @ Cinn Citi +3

I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for the Ravens. They always resembled the team I was used to my Giants being. These days both squads rely more on their offense to win games instead of their underachieving defense.

None of this has anything to do with my picking the Ravens to cover.

Texans @ INDIANAPOLIS -9

I’m not sure what the over in this game is (even though I’m taking it). It really can’t be high enough and history tells us that this game will be very close until the final 5 minutes.

So obviously, I’m going with THIS guy.

Braves @ THE GEORGIA DOME -8.5

I hope by now you realize that I refuse to call Washington by their “preferred” team name.

The line in this game opened at 10, which is about how much it takes to outscore the Braves offense.

Was going to take the Braves to cover but I could do without that point and a half screwing me.

Falcons.

PACKERS @ East St. Petersburg +9.5

Some say that Aaron Rodgers takes too many bad sacks but all I see is a dude that could be the best QB in the league given adequate protection. The Packers get two starters back on the O-line so…uh…

Green Bay all day.

CARDINALS @ Soldier Field +3

Fun Fact: Did you know that the Cardinals are the NFL’s oldest franchise and originally played in Chicago a full 23 years before the Bears came around?

OGs cover.

Cardinals vs. Bears: Thanksgiving Day, 1925

WILDCATS @ Foxborough -10.5

We’ve all heard a hundred times about how “The Wildcat” was unveiled in this game last year. And we all know that Bill Belicheck doesn’t usually fall for the same trick 4 times. And we all know the last thing you want to do is give this guy 2 weeks to prepare for anything.

Nuts to all that. I’m taking the fins.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

PANTHERS @ The Superdome -13

I don’t think there’s a better game to watch week to week than a Saints game.

NOLA’s own, Jake Delhomme (aka: The Human Turnover Machine) faces off against the fast-breaking Saints D, featuring this guy…

Darren Sharper, aka: INTERCEPTOR SUPREME

Against all reason, I’m rolling with the crazy Cajun.

LIONS @ Seattle -10

I didn’t put up a column last week so I couldn’t comment the the Toilet-Bowl matchup between The Lions and Rams. I highly recommend you watch it. It’s surreal.

I would think this game would be similar except for the fact that Qwest Field is loud even at 6 AM Christmas morning.

Kevin Smith is probable (my designation, not Detroit’s) and Megatron is a GTD.

sigh.

Biggest gamble of the week: Lions cover.

Titans @ CANDLESTICK PARK -4

The Titans are 1-90 on the season but this line represents the fear Chris Johnson puts into the hearts of bettors.

Singletary vs. VY? Crabtree and Davis vs. that secondary? Gore vs. the Albert Haynesworth shaped cloud of dust left by him from the offseason?

Niners cover.

CHARGERS @ THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS -4.5

Whatever man.

I have my own feelings about what’s going on with the Giants. Win or lose there are things I’m not happy about and there are things with which I’m comfortable.

I suffer from no delusions when it comes to my favorite teams.

That said, the last time these two played, 70-some odd pts were scored. LDT was much better back then and our defense was much worse. Also, Canty and Boley are back and we’re starting a better pass-defending SS.

Take from that what you will.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Cowboys @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5

I don’t believe in either team though I wouldn’t be surprised if either won the division.

Andy Reid is a solid game strategist but a terrible game-day coach. Wade is fine enough on game-day but does not instill discipline in his team.

Discipline always wins out with evenly matched teams so I’m taking Philly.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

STEELERS @ Mile High +2.5

Apparently The Broncos are unbeatable at Mile High.

Speaking of which, the altitude might literally kill Pittsburgh safety, Ryan Clark.

I'm hearing all that noise but I’m still taking the Steelers to cover.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK:

Ok. Now that that’s out the way I can jump on some of these over/unders.

Here’s one I’ve literally already put good money on. Pays out: 6/1.

Lions/hawks OVR 43.5, Titans/49ers OVR 40.5, Steelers -2.5

“Happy Hunting!”

Burger

2009-11-05T21:27:00.002-05:00

This guy is serious about improving his accuracy!

2009-10-23T19:21:00.010-04:00

In any given year in the NFL there are generally 3 types of teams: sure-shot playoff teams, middle of the road just miss/make the wild-card teams, and complete abominations. These categories can be subdivided and there’s plenty of overlap and bleeding at the boundariess of each category but this is how things work for the most part.

This is why I don’t sweat ass-rammings like the one NOLA gave to The New York Football Giants. Ultimately, they are a playoff team. They have to play every game to ensure this comes to fruition of course, but really, for the sure-shots the regular season is an extended pre-season for the playoff tournament. You’re given 17 weeks to work out your strengths and weaknesses, develop durable and effective game plan while keeping or getting guys healthy.
When playoff time comes around The New York Football Giants should have Aaron Ross and Michael Boley back (big difference) and hopefully Chris Canty. Even if 2 of these 3 don’t make it back you might have rookies like Hakeem Nicks and Travis Beckum emerging on offense. Or Clint Sintim and Bruce Johnson on defense.

The point is that no team is the same in week 6 as they are in week 16. And this goes for ALL NFL teams. This is why your #1 concern is winning your division because it’s all about getting invited to the dance. Everyone knows that once you get there it’s a whole new ball game.

Alright. Enough about all that. How’d I do last week?
7-7?
Terrific. Thanks Brett. Thanks Jets. Thanks Eagles.

I’ve slipped to 50-41 on the year.

”I can and WILL do better.”

*****NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 7*****

EARLY GAMES

THE LIGHT BRIGADE @ ARROWHEAD +4.5 (±44 OVR)
This should be a fun game to watch. Neither team is terribly concerned about playing good defense yet both teams have been plucky on offense. The San Diego offensive line is improving in health. LDT looked decent against a solid Denver defense and Rivers and Gates were able to connect for a few big plays.
Last week the Chiefs “upset” the Redskins who are a terrible team, to be sure, but their defense is pretty solid. And road games on the East coast are always tough.
I can’t in good conscience pick the Chiefs to cover against a team as talented as the Chargers. Nor can I trust the Chargers to play enough D to cover at Arrowhead. You can call me a sissy...
…but I'm takin the OVAAAAH!

COLTS @ Gateway City +13
Little need be said about this game. It’s Colts v. Rams after all. But Indy’s coming off bye and Bob Sanders is ready to play his 8 games this season.
What Colts line WOULDN’T you take?

PACKERS @ The Brown Hole +9
Why the “brown hole”? Cuz they stink? Not really.
It’s just that Cleveland Stadium is such a boring name. The irony is that this franchise has never been terribly clever. The owner’s name was Paul Brown so they named the team “The Browns”. Their unis are monochromatic. Their greatest player happens to share his name with the team and went to 9 Pro-Bowls in a 9 year career while taking 9 seconds to get up from Every one of his 9 yard runs regardless of whether he was hurt or not (so the defense would never know when he was gassed).
So what’s with no longer playing at Municipal Stadium? I always loved that name. So nondescript yet totally appropriate. This is Cleveland after all!

Yeeeeeah, you love it!

I like The Pack coming off bye.

VIKINGS @ THE CITY OF CHAMPIONS -5.5 (±45 OVER)
Win-losses aside, you have to consider The Vikings the better team. They’re winning ball games on all sides of the ball. The Steelers meanwhile…I dunno. Something about them I just don’t trust. Polamalu didn’t look like he was at full speed but he was still a force.
If this was a neutral site or at Minnesota, I’d take the Vikings. But at Heinz Field anything is possible.
I’m gonna chicken out and take another over.

PATRIOTS vs. Buccaneers +14.5 (@ Wembley Stadium)
SHIPOOPI-SHIPOOPI!!!
Weather should be nice enough so...
Take the rebels.

Now NEW England goes to OLD England to play a ball game.” –The Ed

49ers @ HOUSTON -3
The Niners finally let me down, getting atom-smashed by the Falcons before the bye. I’m now free to harp on their anemic offense which shoooould be better with the return of Frank Gore and the NFL debut of Michael Crabtree but Houston scores forever though.
Hey look! A home team cover!.

LATE GAMES

THE NY TITANS @ Oakland +6
Having Nnamdi and Revis cover Braylon and Heyward-Bey is sort of like sending The Hulk to downtown Manhattan on 9/11 to “fuck shit up.”
I'm taking the Jets.

Bills @ CAROLINA-7
I picked them to win, I still enjoyed watching the Jets lose to Buffalo last week. The Bills stink on ice though and now that rancid meat is left to dry in the afternoon sun in Charlotte.
The Panthers crack me up.
In the midst of Jake Delhomme’s explicable meltdown, Steve Smith kept saying that he still loves Jake and that he still believes in him. Then last week he says that he himself is no longer an asset to the team!
I want to play in Steve’s fantasy league.
Carolina.

Bears @CIN CITY -1
I’m watching this game for ONE reason and ONE reason only….because MJD is a big-time fantasy football fan. This past week I heard him mention that he owned himself and Matt Forte but that “Forte is killing me."
MoJo plans on calling Matt to give him a pep talk.
I think he was serious because he, himself, is on bye so he won't be able to carry....himself. (So surreal)
I’m taking the home team, by the way.

SAINTS @ MIAMA +6.5 (±47 UND)
I was really thinking about taking the South Beach Wildcats. I mean, think about it. The Saints are not gonna go undefeated. AFC East defenses have played them well and they’ll be outdoors on grass against a team that can control the clock with their half-back silliness.
So in this case I am both the chicken-hawk AND the chicken.
Under.

FALCONS @ Jerry’s Death Star -4
Matt Ryan looks terrific. Why any college QB wouldn’t elect to play all four years is beyond me.
The Cowboys are coming off their bye and are at home. Felix is back but he’s lost snaps to Tashard. Barber’s quad should be stronger. Wile E. Coyote should be alright, though he’ll still suck balls (and not in the manner he's paid to) but more importantly, Demarcus Ware is a little banged up. It looks like he’ll give it a go on Sunday but that defense is suspect when fully healthy.

Dirty Birds seen shitting all over the new stadium grounds.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

MORGAN ATHLETIC CLUB @ THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS -4 (±46 OVR)
Oooh! It’s that old NFC East rivalry that really wasn’t much of one. (But thanks for O.J. Anderson)
I spoke a little about the Giants in the intro and you know I never make picks involving these guys so…
…just take the obligatory primetime over.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

IGGIES @ FedEx Field +7
Apparently after the G-Men destroyed the Raiders, AP was quoted as saying the game felt like a scrimmage. Those Raiders (professionals that they are) took offense and came out fired up last Sunday.
I love that The Giants had no more to do with them so the Raiders were forced to take it all out on our division rivals, The Eagles.
...
MEANWHILE, back in Landover, the VP of Football Operations stripped Jim Zorn of his play calling duties. Didn’t fire him. Just stripped him of play calling duties.

Now I ask you, in what way is Zorn the head coach of this team if he has no control over the plays being called in the game?
What kind of organization is this? Is the VP of Communication in charge of in-game audibles?
Do the bankers that own Jim Zorn’s mortgage call his wife up to tell her what to cook her kids for dinner?
Insanity.

”No, Sherm! This is MY playbook. You wanna call plays? Get your own playbook!”

Also, Chris Samuels has decided to pack it in for the season. I don’t think Portis will be far behind.

Iggies, man. Iggies.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK
Sprinkled some Saturday football love in last week and it came through! Unfortunately the Eagles robbed us of any chance at collecting so we’re going big this week. You ready?

6-Team Tease (7pts): Texas -6*, Pitt +0.5*, Colts -6.5, Packers -2, SD/KC OVR 38, NYJ/Oak OVR 28.5

Odds? 1 will get you 6 if you have the heart for it.

*NB: Texas and Pitt refer to Texas Longhorns and the Pitt Panthers. A bottle of rum to anyone who can get a screen cap of my mom or sis at the Pitt homecoming game!
(Leaving you wide open for this lay-up because I trust that we’re mature enough to let the easy jokes pass by.)

Alright boys and girls! Enjoy your weekend and as always…

…Good Luck and God Bless!

Yeah. I'm Pretty Terrific...

2009-10-16T13:37:00.005-04:00

A little while back I used to work as manager of an automotive service center on Long Island. It was a relatively large enterprise made all the more stressful by the constant stream of customer complaints. (To be honest, the customers were usually the least of my problems. I could talk a fish into walking on land. But at the end of the day the customers leave. The employees were the bigger headache. anyway…)

I remember this one customer whom I encountered sometime within my first few weeks. He had gotten some front-end and suspension work done, then had an accident. Something about his car crashing into an abutment or some-such. Somehow he got it into his head that the cause of the accident was faulty struts. There was absolutely no basis for this and even if there was, insurance takes care of these matters. But here he was, sitting in my office, politely arguing his case.

I’ll never forget this man for 2 reasons. One, he was Haitian and somehow he figured out that I was Haitian too. Once he realized this he immediately began speaking to me in creole, perhaps thinking that he had found a more sympathetic soul.

(Sorry, mon frère. When I walk through that door my blood turns green.)

But the second reason I’ll never forget this dude is because of what he said at the end of his story.

He said, “Raphael, I just want to be made WHOOOOOLE again.”

So funny because of the way he emphasized the word “whole”, the way he closed his eyes and pantomimed a self-embrace and the fact that that sentence was the first English sentence since he stumbled upon our common ancestry.

The events of this past weekend have left me in a terrible state both mentally and physically.

The closer we get to the weekend, however, the closer I get to being made WHOOOOLE again.

So let’s get to it.

*****NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 6*****

EARLY AFTERNOON GAMES

Chiefs @ Jack Kent Cooke -6.5

The Chiefs versus the Redskins! Americans holler and cheer while somewhere in the wilderness an Injun cries as he stumbles out of a shitty casino, penniless and drunk off Night Train.

I’m thinking Missouri finally posts an NFL vic in 09.

Texans @ Cin City -5

At some point this Bengals thrill ride is going to end.

Houston has the firepower to at least keep it close.

Browns @ The City of Champions -14

Troy’s back! It’s amazing how much of a difference maker this guy is on defense. Steelers cover at home without him but they might just shut them out with him.

Peezburg all day.

B-More Ravens @ The Metrodome -3

Speaking of All-Day, if there’s one thing the Ravens can still do, it’s stopping the run. If there’s one thing they CAN’T do, it’s covering the wide receiver. Like I said last week, it all comes down to how well their corners perform. Only way to beat the Vikings is with a strong front 7 (check) and good cover corners (no-check).

Take the Vikings.

Rams @ Jacksonville -9.5

Wow, did the Jaguars get atom-smashed! Who saw that coming? Fortunately for the Jags, playing St. Louis is just what the doctor ordered. I cannot begin to tell you how talentless this team is. It’s mindboggling.

Jags. Jags. Jags.

The New York Football Giants @ The Superdome -3

Quite possibly the game of the week. Let me just say this. The Giants are one of the few teams built to stop a spread offense like that of the Saints. They have a defensive line that can create pressure and play well against the run. They have linebackers that play gap-sound football. And they have athletic corners and nickelbacks that can cover.

I so wish Kenny Phillips was playing in this game.

Panthers @ East St. Petersburg +3 ±39 OVR

Lovely. But that’s not the East St. Petersburg I’m talking about…

Let’s see. Maybe if I refine this search…

...theeere’s the East St. Petersburg I know!

Yuuuuck!

Lions @ Lambeau -13.5

Any other week and I would probably take the Lions to cover. As bad as they are on defense (and they are bad), they play tough. They are nowhere near the worst team in football. That said, the Packers are coming off bye. They have some O-linemen getting healthy and Megatron is questionable.

You can feel squeamish about it, but GB covers.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

Yellow Jackets @ The Black Hole +14

The Eagles are who they always are. Somehow they’ve been able to maintain their intensity on defense and they’ve only gotten faster on offense. We might get to see a lot more of Vick out there in the second half so keep this game on standby even if it becomes a laugher.

Eagles. Obviously.

Cardinals @ Seattle -3

I just don’t understand the Cardinals. In fact, I don’t understand the NFC West at all. Since Polomalu is back it’s Fitzy’s turn to serve time on the Madden jinx (last chance to sell high, fantasy owners).

STOP....FIGHTING....IT’S.....INEVITABLE!!!”

I’m going with the home team.

Bills @ The Meadowlands -9.5

This is why I avoided all Buffalo players in my fantasy drafts. That Bills offense is like the plague. T.O, Lynch, Fred Jackson and Lee Evans and you can’t score more than 3 against the Browns?!

In what universe does dismantling your offensive line result in improved football performance?

Only the Jets could fuck this one up.

Oilers @ Foxborough -9

Every week I find myself in the same position (when I serve them up that readily, you’re obliged to just let it pass). I look at the line. I look at the matchup. I look at the Titans record and say to myself, “Humboldt…” (for this is what I call myself in my head). I say, “Humboldt, do you really think The Titans, a team that went 13-3 last year, is gonna start this season off 0-3…0-4…0-5?”

To be fair, I got a break from that last week when they went up against P-Money but…

…ach! I’m taking the Pats.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Bears @ The Georgia Dome -3

Here is what we’re gonna be able to take away from this game (besides some money if you bet on the home team). There’s a reason why a new coach is willing to trade away a Jay Cutler and there’s a reason why a new coach will stake his fledgling career on a Matt Ryan.

Go with the Falcons.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Broncos @ Qualcomm -3.5

Speak of the devil. Here we have Josh McDaniels who with each passing week is looking more and more like a certified genius. But we also have the Chargers, a team who’s GM thought it wise to dump Brees and go with Rivers. I don’t care what you tell me about how well Rivers plays. I just know that that team, especially LDT, LOVED Drew Brees. I’m not saying they don’t like Rivers. But I know they loved Drew Brees. That counts for a lot.

Anyway, the home team is coming off a bye so I’ll keep it simple and take the Chargers.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

I know most of you don’t gamble and if you do you don’t trust or believe in my picks enough to put serious bank on any of these Parlays. But here’s the thing, when you’re getting 7/1 odds on something you don’t need to hit every time or even every other time to be a winner. After 5 weeks I’m 2-3 on these parlays. That’s a SHIT TON of bank. Last week I gave you 3 options and they ALL hit.

I’m just saying.

5-Team Tease (7pts.): Alabama -10.5, Texas Longhorns +4, Chiefs +13.5, Texans +12, Eagles -7, Bears/Falcons OVR 39.5

That’s right. I threw a couple college games in there. Red River Rivalry? Gotta get in on that. This tease gives you 5/1 odds so consider this my gift to you.

Happy trails, cowgirls and as always…

...Good Luck and God Bless!”

GHOSTDINI FOREVER!

2009-10-11T12:51:00.006-04:00

Better late than never at all...

A quarter of the NFL season is done and a few thinks have become abundantly clear.

1. The Raiders continue to be one of the most inexplicably worst organizations of the early 21^st century. I’d rather be a Lions fan than ride with the Autumn Wind.

2. That entire 13-3 Titans season was a fluke. It took about 19 weeks for them to start showing their true colours, but they did. We all just needed an extra couple of weeks to get the message.

3. The Lions should devote their next 5 free agent and draft acquisitions to defense. A Pro-Bowl tackle on either side of the ball would be nice too.

4. Everyone should be scared of the Saints.

5. Bret Favre will play past his 44^th birthday.

6. But that acquisition has already netted the Vikings 2 extra wins.

7. Anyone planning on playing Green Bay in the next 6 years should pray they don’t improve their offensive line.

8. The Rams were foolish to put their trust in Marc Bulger 6 years ago. All of their ills stem from that one mistake.

9. Wade Phillips has a solid mind for Xs and Os, but he cannot instill discipline into a team that sorely needs it.

10. Ghostface Killah might never fall off.[/i]

We’re not gonna discuss my record from last week. The Saints, Chargers, Packers and Bears are all on bye.

So without further ado…

*****NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 5*****

EARLY AFTERNOON GAMES

Vikings @ Gateway City +10

The #24 ranked Missouri Tigers were up 12 points in the 4^th quarter before allowing the Cornhuskers to score four straight TDS (3 in the span of four minutes) en route to a 27-12 loss last night. There’s no doubt in my mind that either Texas team from the Big 12 South should have had a chance to play for the conference title last year.

Anyway, there’s no reason to believe the Vikings won’t score 30. Two in the air. Two on the ground. So you tell me how the Rams score 17.

I’ll wait…

Cowboys @ Arrowhead +8

The Cowboys are quietly a terrible team. For years they’ve fooled us with the preponderance of talent on their roster but every blue-chipper on that team is fatally flawed in a major way. Add that to the fact that the team is so poorly coached and it’s no wonder they always finish the way they do.

That said, they have played undefeated teams close and have beaten the bad teams. The Chiefs are a bad team (and are getting better).

Btw, my whole Mizzou rant was just to highlight the fact that the state will be 0-fer this week because…

…Chiefs don’t cover at Arrowhead anymore.

Braves @ Carolina -3.5

Didn’t both these states go blue last October?

I sincerely hope the off week has given John Fox and co. a chance to figure out what it is they want to do on offense.

I’m going with the home team.

Buc @ Eagles -14.5

This is what I mean. The Eagles and Cowboys have comparable talent but the Iggies are much better coached, especially on defense. Andy Reid is still a fat putz but this is a relative argument. 2+TDs makes me nervous but the Bucs are banged up at RB and the Philly D should be able to fluster whatever young QB Raheem throws out there.

Amazingly, I’m taking the Eagles.

Raiders @ The New York Football Giants -15 OVR±38

Anyone who took DMC in their fantasy draft deserves everything that’s happening to them right now. That organization is so screwed up that their draft day antics have affected BOTH bay area teams.

Eli is gonna hafta play with pain the rest of the season but it remains to be seen if he’ll do so this weekend. Carr got enough snaps this week to put 2 TDs on the board. The running game will work itself out.

Against all reason, I’m gonna take the OVR.

Browns @ Ralph Wilson -6.5

The Braylon saga is just too funny for words. The Browns let the Jets trade with them to get Mark Sanchez and now they’ve given them Edwards for less than they were asking of The Giants in the off-season (unless you think Chansi is good substitute for a 1^st round pick).

I just love the idea that within minutes of Massaquoi’s breakout performance, Mangini was on the phone shopping #17. And I’m sure it was 50% orchestrated by Cleveland’s Don Capo Supreme, LeBron Davis. Who wants to bet that once LBJ signs with a NY team that Edwards gets shipped to Oakland?

I like the Browns to cover.

Bengals @ The Independent City of Baltimore-8.5

What does that mean, “Independent City”? What’s their relationship to the rest Maryland? Do their residents not pay state taxes? Is there no gubernatorial or congressional oversight?

I can see the Bengals fucking me here but something tells me the Ravens aren’t happy about losing that conference game up in Foxborough.

If that secondary can hold it together the Ravens should take care of business.

Steelers @ The Motor City +10.5

All I asked of these clowns was to cover 20 against their division rivals. Of course they go out and let the Bears score 48 on them. There’s no reason for me to believe that Big Ben and company can’t control this game from the opening kickoff.

I’ll take Pittsburgh.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

Dirty Birds @ Candlestick -2.5

One of my favorite games this week as The Niners have become one of my favorite teams.

We ride with them till they bankrupt us.

Pats @ Mile High +3 OVR±41

Looks like Kid Daniels is making good on his promise. Bill Simmons had an interesting article a couple weeks ago about Bill Belicheck and the Pats.

(Had I an ounce of professionalism there would be a link somewhere in that paragraph)

This line looks about right to me, and god help me I’m taking the OVR.

Jags @ Seattle PICK’EM

Somehow this game escaped my attention the first time I posted these picks. It’s not hard to see why. I can’t find an over/under on this, but to be honest, I haven’t really tried.

Let’s start picking Jaguars for a couple of games and see what happens.

Texans @ Arizona -5.5

Man, they jacked up this over. At 50.5 it’s almost ten times the spread. People are gonna talk about how this game will feature the two best WRs in football right now (while my man Reggie Wayne keeps doing what he do).

Drink every time you hear “duel in the desert” and marvel as I take yet ANOTHER road team to cover.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Colts @ Music City +3.5

There are 2 divisions in which it does not matter how good or bad any of the teams are, the spread will ALWAYS be within 2.5-4.5 points. The AFC South is one of them. There’s a good chance I will never bet on the Oilers again.

By the way, I hope they’re wearing their powder blues and Peyton’s allowed to wear black shoes.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Jets @ Miama +1

These AFC East primetime matchups are always classics. Last time the South Beach Wildcats went up against Rex Ryan and a rookie QB they got jacked like Daniels. I don’t see why that wouldn’t happen again.

Take Gang Green.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK

I don’t think the Chargers covered last week so our teaser was doomed from the get go but The Lions failing to cover 20 against the Bears in the 1 o’clock game was a harbinger of terrible things for us overall. I’m telling you right now that I’m putting a hundo on The Vikings (+0), The Steelers (-.5) and the Eagles (-4.5) in a 3-Team Tease.

Feel free to sub the Colts in at +6.5 if you don’t mind waiting on the Sunday Night game.

Or shave 4 points off all 4 of those lines and throw the Cowboys at -2 in for a nice 5-Team Tease.

You can thank me later.

Ok. that's it from me. sorry this is up so late. Busy weekend.

(Congratulations to Taantee, Chi, Vi, Stew, Tanesha and The Big Cat!)

I actually had this done on Friday but failed to post it till just now.

Anyway, Happy Hunting and as per usual…

...Good Luck and God Bless!

PIX PIX and MORE PIX!!!

2009-10-02T15:16:00.004-04:00

****NFL LINES & PICKS: WEEK 4****

I wanna start this column off by congratulating one of my FF Kappa League rivals for besting me in an NFL Pick ATS side game last week. David “Lucky” Luckenbach went 11-5 against my 10-6 ATS. Great job, Luck.

That loss burned me up…
…not because he beat me at my own game but because of the NFL games that lost it for me.

The Titans and Jets have screwed me royally and separately, every week, this entire season. It was only right that with next year’s draft position on the line, these 2 teams would play each other.

The more I think about it the more I realize that there was no way I was gonna get this one right. My only hope was to match my pick with my opponent’s but that would have required a lack of scruples.
I have no scruples...but not when it comes to fantasy football.

The next ass-poling came from the Falcons/New England matchup. The Pats were giving up 4.5 and I thought Atlanta had enough fire power to at least keep it close, if not win. There were a few shenanigans in that game and in the end the Pats more than covered but I just felt the Falcons didn’t want it that badly.

The final pink-socking came Monday Night where the Panthers failed to cover 8.5 against the Cowboys. That game went pretty much how I thought it would. The Panthers kept it close. My hope was that if they could break 2 big plays, whether from Steve Smith or Deangelo Williams, it would be enough. That never happened, yet the Panthers still had the game covered until the final minutes when Jake turned the ball over twice.

It’s a bit unfair of me to single out Jake because while he had 3 turnovers in the game none were truly his fault. His protection failed him on the final sack-fumble. Muhsin Muhammad gave up on the ball on the first INT. And the most devastating TO, the pick-6, came because Steve Smith inexplicably changed his route when he saw Terence Newman about to jump it.
Don’t get cute, Steve, at least not with MY money!

(sigh)

Had I to do it all over again I’d probably make the same picks from top to bottom.
As it is I’m 31-18 on the year so let’s try to jump back on the horse.

EARLY AFTERNOON GAMES

The Autumn Wind @ HOUSTON -9 (±42.5)
I’ve already mentioned how the Texans are making it their life’s work to make an ass of me week after week, but the Raiders are getting their licks in too. Week 1 they cover against the Chargers, then they beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead and then they follow all that up by getting spanked by the Broncos at home.
So here we are again.

The fact remains that the Jamarcus Russell stinks as a quarterback and as much as the Texans have failed to cover, they’ve never failed to put up points.
Here’s to hoping Schaub and AJ stay healthy!

Oilers @ Jacksonville +3 (±41.5) OVR
Friggin Titans, man. Yet another team that befuddles me. Their WRs are so much better than last year’s and Lendale is off the Patron, yet they can’t make it happen in the red zone. These AFC South matchups are always close so it’s really a matter of taking the over/under.
I don’t trust Tennessee to contain MoJo so...
Take the OVR.

B-MORE RAVENS @ Foxborough -2 (44.5)
Charm City Ravens, on the other hand, have yet to let me down and I’m very proud of my taking them to cover 13 against the Browns. Patriots still don’t look sharp but it will happen sooner or later. That said, the Ravens are simply a better team. And let’s not forget that the last time these two faced each other was in 07 and Baltimore had them beat.

I like the Ravens.

BENGALS @ Cleveland +6 (±38)
Another pick I’m especially proud of, The Bengals beat the Steelers last week. Came down to the final seconds but the fact is this team is pretty solid. They can run. They can pass and that defense is plucky (somebody needs to get Rey-Rey under control). Derek Anderson is starting but people are underestimating how bad the Browns are.
Bengals cover.

The New York Football Giants @ Arrowhead +8.5 (±42) UND
Wow. What did the Giants do to deserve this stretch of schedule? Oh yeah. They lost a chance to repeat to Osi's injury, Plax's antics and lost Kenny Phillips to a season ending arthritis injury.

I don’t make official Giants picks ATS and the over was a good bet against the Bucs last week but who woulda thought they’d pitch a shutout with that many guys missing on defense?

(Did they really throw Tuck out there in a shoulder harness?)

While I doubt they serve up 2 straight bagels, the losing team won’t score enough to touch the over so…
Take the UNDER.

SPARTANS @ Soldier Field -10 (±39)

I think everyone took the Lions to cover last week. Many of us even thought they’d win. Look, this team can move the ball. I still think they made a mistake in taking Stafford but he’ll be competent enough to win them a few games.

I’ve literally not made my mind up as I write this. Ten points is a lot but the Lions are still a horrible team, especially on defense. This is probably the week Forte gets back on track and were this in Detroit I mighta taken the Lions to cover but….you know what?
Fuckit.
Take the Lions.

Bucs @ JACK KENT COOKE -7.5 (±37)
Wow (pt. Deux!)
It’s gonna be really tough to take Tampa in any of their games. These guys are rebuilding just about every part of their team. New HC. New defense. New QB. They fired their OC weeks before the season. They’re a hot mess. The Braves aren’t much better but you gotta figure scores from Portis and Squish-Squam is all it’s gonna take.
I like Washington.

‘hawks @ INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 (±44)
I was tempted to take the over since now the Colts are without Bob Sanders AND Dwight Freeney. But why get cute?

Colts cover.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

New Jersey Titans @ THE SUPERDOME -7 (±45)
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

PAAAAAIN!!!

I’ll take the Saints.

Bills @ JOE ROBBIE +1.5 (±37)
This game gave me fits. Another game I can see going in all sorts of directions. Trent Edwards is a bonafidelitly terrible quarterback (and yes, I made that word up. Wanna fight about it?). But Lee Evans tends to do well against the South Beach Wildcats and you gotta figure T.O.’s 0-fer won’t abide.

Speaking of the Wildcat, has Pat White played at all this season? And didn’t I tell you Chad Pennington can’t put together 2 good seasons in a row?

Speaking of QBs named “Chad”, we finally get to see Jake Long protecting Chad Henne’s backside again (feel free to go crazy with that one).
Will they recreate some of that ol’ Michigan Magic?
Was there even a such thing?
Finally, is it too much to ask pro-players to maintain their collegiate rivalries? I’d love to see a Ted Ginn Jr. freeze-out.

Speaking of “freeze-outs”… uhh…Dolphins cover.

Rams @ CANDLESTICK -9.5 (±37.5)
Brett fuggin’ Favre. I’m not gonna feed into the hype machine by discussing his last second “heroics”. But is there ANY doubt that Coach Singletary’s Niners will cover whatever spread you put in front of them?
(besides the aforementioned Hail-Mary, of course.)

Frisco all the way.

COWBOYS @ Mile High +3 (±42.5)
Bleh! Bleh! Bleh!
Cowboys cover.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

CHARGERS @ Heinz Field -6 (±43)
Didn’t these 2 teams play each other last year at Pittsburgh? Remember the “Troy Polamalu intercepted-illegal-fwd-pass-return-TD-Steelers-non-cover-cover Game”? 11-10?
A conventional man would take the under.

BUT... what has 2 thumbs and is NOT gonna taking “under”?

THIS GUUUY!!!

I’m taking the Light Brigade.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Packers @ The Metrodome -3.5 (±45) OVR
Speaking of Mr. Monday Nights!
I am very much looking forward to seeing these two former partners in primetime faceoff.

BTW, Everyone’s making a big deal about this game but really, it’s the Vikings AT Green Bay that’s gonna be the emotional one. This is really just some guys in yellow helmets playing some old dude in a shitty dome.
Take the OVER.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK: Gonna try something a little different this week. We're gonna do a 6-Team Teaser!

For the uninitiated, a "teaser" bet is one in which you move the line a set number of points to your advantage. The odds aren't as favorable but if you can get enough games into your parlay it's worth the while.

Moving the line 6 points on a 6-Team Tease gets you around 7/1 odds, in which case I like:

Lions +16, Colts -4.5, Saints -1, Dolphins +7, Cowboys +3, and Chargers +12

So give it a whirl, ladies. And as always...

...Good Luck and God Bless!"

I'M A CHICKEN-HAWK...

2009-09-25T14:54:00.012-04:00

...and YOU'RE a chicken!!!

*****NFL PICKS: WEEK 3*****

Another fun week.

Great prime-time games.

A few upsets (like the feeling of Redskins fans about their team only beating the Rams by two).

Ocho Cinco made a complete fool of Roger Goodell with his “Lambeau Leap”. Not only did he highlight the hypocrisy of forbidding premeditated endzone celebrations while allowing the Green Bay Packers to perform a stunt that has its own name. But he completely took the teeth out of Goodell’s proverbial bite. What was he to do? On the one hand he HAD to fine him for what could be more premeditated than the performance of a pre-named stunt that was announced and publicly reported on a week before the game. But doing so would mean he’d have to outlaw the tradition entirely.

Bravo Ocho, but please don’t stop there. Let’s make every Sunday a spectacle.

I think I scrambled to go 11-6 last week (if you count the Saints OVR). That’s 22-11 on the season.

Let’s hope I do even better this week.

EARLY AFTERNOON GAMES

OILERS @ The Meadowlands -3 (±37)

Both these teams cost me a lot of money last week. Too much faith in the Titans at home and not enough in The Jets playing against New England. Now I’ve got both teams going against each other and I’m left with this dilemma. Do I suck it up and accept that Mark Sanchez and this Jets defense is for real? Or do I refuse to think a team like the Titans will start the season 0-3?

Wish this line wasn’t so low but I’m going with Tennessee.

Jags @ HOUSTON -3.5 (±47)

And here’s the other half of my Houston Bowl screw job. Now that I think about it, this team (along with the Jets) screwed me 2 weeks in a row. There’re at home. Everyone’s healthy and the Jags are still one dimensional.

The New Texans cover.

Browns @ CHARM CITY -13 (±38.5)

The Ravens D is letting me down fantasy-wise but in actual football play they can afford to be less than their best because they finally have an offense that can post 30 on any given. Hard to believe we’ve come to a point where one would seriously consider The Ravens covering 2 TDs as a favorite.

But nothing about the Browns tells me they’ll score more than 6 points. Just terrible.

I’m taking Baltimore.

Braves @ MOTOWN +6.5 (±38.5)

Hey! Remember last year during the automaker bailout crisis when the DC fat-cats made the all the Detroit fat-cats come down to Washington to kiss the ring?

Well this has nothing to do with that.

ACTIVATE MEGATRON!

The New York Football Giants @ Tamp Bay +6.5 (±44) OVR

Boy, did my G-Men come through for me big time down in Dallas! There were 2 players I desperately wanted in the 08 draft: Kenny Phillips and Mario Manningham. Unfortunately the football gods will not let me have both of them healthy for a full season. Phillips is on the IR. But Super Mario has arrived and The Bucs pass D is reminds me of an autumn in London circa 1940 (take your time).

I don’t officially make line picks when it comes to the Giants but you’re safe with the OVER for the 2nd straight week.

PACKERS @ Gateway City +6.5 (±41) OVR

Speaking of activating an 08 stud, WHERE ARE YOU MR. RODGERS?! The fate of both of my fantasy teams hinges on the wisdom of passing up Drew Brees in the 2nd and a RB in the 3rd to pick you.

Now there’s no way the St. Louis wins this game. I’d stake my reputation as a prognosticator of week 3 Packer-Rams games. But please, for the sake of Packer fans, my Sportsbook account and both “Gotham’s Finest” teams, let’s make this a laugher.

Green Bay going away. (They’ll also take care of that OVER by themselves)

49ERS @ Twin City West -6.5 (±39)

I might literally be 11-1 ATS with Coach Singletary dating back to when he took over last year. He’s by far my favorit e NFL coach not named Tom Coughlin. They’re probably gonna need Shaun Hill to make some plays on the road vs. the Vikings but I still like them.

Niners cover.

FALCONS @ Foxborough -4.5 (±46.5)

Oh, New England! I think your time is up. A decade of skinflint antics has finally caught up with you. You have no impact players on defense now that Jerod Mayo is out and the 07 Giants have exposed your offense’s Achilles heel: pass protection. Much like Dudley from Diff’rent Strokes, Tom Brady does not enjoy getting molested.

Poor kid. Was never quite the same after Gordon Jump got through with him.

Whether or not the Falcons can accomplish this or not is irrelevant because Matty Ice is coming home (sorta) and he's packing heat.

Take da BOIDS!

The Old Texans @ PHILLY -7.5

This game opened at 9.5 but was quickly taken down, I’m assuming because of the Eagles QB situation. They may or may not get one up by kickoff but 7½ sounds about right to me. Kansas City poled me big time last week letting JaMarcus Russell drive down the field for a TD in the final minute. (That guy stinks, by the way.) DeSean Jackson is nicked up, but I gotta assume a week’s worth of snaps in practice will be enough for Kevin Kolb to lead Philly to victory.

Eagles.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

SAINTS @ Rich Stadium +6 (±51.5)

Buffalo weather forecast calls for rain…provided, of course by moisture-saturated clouds or Drew Brees and his traveling circus.

NOLA’s got TDs to spare.

Wildcats @ QUALCOMM -6 (±44)

This game gave me more fits than I care to admit. Actually I just admitted it and I didn’t really care.

But I think The Chargers lost another 6 offensive lineman and their defense is underwhelming. Six points for a Dolphin team that can control 45 minutes of a clock is a lot. I still gotta roll with the Light Brigade.

Chargers cover.

Steelers @ CIN CITI +4 (±37)

Ooooh. Bad loss for the Steelers but I saw that coming. The Bengals winning in Green Bay took me completely by surprise. I do like their defense though. They should be 2-0 right now. I can see them keeping it close. Can’t believe I’m gonna say this but…

…put your money on the Bengals.

Broncos @ OAKLAND +1 (±37)

These two teams deserve each other. They both stink yet kinda not. But most amazingly, they are both tied for first place with San Diego. I like the Raiders defense and running game enough to see them pulling it out in the Black Hole.

Take the Autumn wind.

BEARS @ Seattle +2 (±37)

Did you know that “Seneca Wallace” is Chinookan for “Bears cover”?

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

COLTS @ Arizona -2.5 (±48)

I’ve recently come to realise that Peyton Manning will never lose a game by more than 8 points. And this will only happen if the Colts are down by 16 w/5 min. to play, him driving down to score w/2pt conversion, and the special teams failing to recover the onside kick.

That has nothing to do with this game, by the way. But please feel free to drink whenever you hear the phrase “shoot-out in the desert”.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Panthers @ The White Death Star -8.5 (±47.5) 0VR

Last year Ed Reed and Ray Lewis ended the Cowboys home season by leading their rebel alliance down to Irving, Texas and blowing up the 1st Death Star. This year, Eli & Company kicked off the Cowboys home season by doing the same to the new one.

It sure is purty though!

I wanted to take the Cowboys to cover but 8½ is a lot of points for a defense that can’t stop anyone through the air or on the ground. I can see this going either way except down.

Take the OVER.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK: Easy 3-teamer. Colts, Bears & the Giants/TB OVR (7.12)

Alright Ladies. That's about it for this week.

Happy Hunting and as always...

...Good Luck and God Bless!

DING! DING! ROUND 2!!!

2009-09-18T11:42:00.015-04:00

Sometimes when you eagerly anticipate something for too long you eventually wash over with this weird feeling of muted relief. The anxiety and eustress leave your system in a burst or in a slow dissipation but in either case you find yourself in a crashed state. Nothing can ever live up to the anticipation you feel the moment before you experience it.

Not with football though!

Oh no. Week 1 did little to disappoint the sports fans. We had everything. All-Day Peterson was a monster on the ground. Drew Brees was master of the air. The Bengals found yet another way to snatch defeat from the claws of victory. Monday night gave us not one but TWO last minute come from behind victories by would-be SB contenders, not to mention the return of Tom Brady.

Speaking of Monday night, am I the only person who thought the Bills and Patriots looked fantastic in those throwback unis? It’s weird because those old unis are the ones I grew up with but whenever a team made a switch I invariably thought it was for the better. But seeing the Bills with those classic white helmets with the Buffalo on the side was pretty awesome. The same for New England. All this time I thought Pat the Patriot sucked major balls but really it was just their players from the 80s.

Alright. Last week we went 10-6 (if you took that Dallas OVR as well), not to mention hitting that parlay of the week, so let’s keep this on and poppin…

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

PATRIOTS @ The Meadowlands +3.5 (±45.5)

Pats vs. Jets. Best AFC rivalry over the past decade. The head-to-head record is heavily in the Pats favor but the Jets always find a way to make at least ONE of their annual matchups close. It’s usually not the first game though. The Pats D looks more porous than Travis Henry's condoms, but this is Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck we’re talking about. If they can’t find a way to beat a rookie QB with only 13 starts since high school then they might as well call this dynasty a wrap.

Pats cover.

Panthers @ ATL -6.5 (±42)

What can I say about Jake Delhomme that hasn’t already been said about former No-Limit rapper, C-Murder? A 30 year old Louisianan completely willing to ruin his shitty career by firing ill-advised shots into crowds.

The Panthers love to rely on their linemen to create pressure. I don’t think that’s enough against a solid Matt Ryan. He’s got a solid running game and tons of reliable pass-catching options. Steve Smith is the most over rated awesome player I’ve ever seen.

Take the Falcons.

The Autumn Wind @ ARROWHEAD -3 (±38.5)

Another divisional game for the Raiders, this time against the Kansas City Chiefs. Raiders looked pretty solid Monday Night against the Light Brigade but ultimately came up short. They might actually have something in this Louis Murphy character.

Cassel looks like he’ll be back on Sunday but I doubt he’ll be a factor. I see the Raiders being a bit deflated after letting one slip to San Diego.

Let’s go with the Chiefs.

Texans @ MUSIC CITY -6.5 (±41)

Ah wonderful! Part I of the annual Houston Bowl Series.

Still trying to figure out why the Texans let the Jets come into their stadium and smack them around last Sunday. They’re already getting a little dinged up and now they gotta go face a Titans team at home and fresh off 10 days rest. They’ll also wanna re-establish their dominance after losing a close one to Pittsburgh.

I like the old Oilers.

Bungle Tigers @ LAMBEAU -9 (±42)

The Bengals are just a bunch of clowns. It’d be foolish of me to do anything but take the Packers to cover.

AD & THE MINNY ALL-STARS @ Motown +9.5 (±46.5)

Well, I took the Lions to cover 2 tds last week against the Saints and they couldn’t do it. I’ll definitely ask them to do it again but not this week. That defense has more holes than a Brett Ratner script.

At least Megatron will get some grissle.

Vikings cover the 9 ½.

Rams @ JACK KENT COOKE -10 (±36.5)

We used to have some great stadium names. The Redskins don’t play in RFK anymore but Jack Kent Cooke deserved to keep his name on the stadium he built. The man died without seeing it opened yet within 2 years Dan Snyder is whoring it out to FedEx. Yuck!

As for the Rams? Well I’m sorry to say that Coach Spags starts his head coaching career 0-2 against the spread.

DREW BREES & da NOLA Pass-Catchers @ Philly Pick (±46)

Drew fuckin’ Brees. This dude went absolutely bananas last week. Can Vegas set this line to ANY number that will stop you from taking the OVER?

Take the Saints.

Take the OVR.

CARDINALS @ Jacksonville -3 (±42.5)

Boy was I right about these two teams last week. I’m not impressed with Arizona’s prospects this year. No way Warner stays healthy and they’ll struggle to go 8-8. The Jags meanwhile are tough and have improved their WR corps. They’re still one dimensional though. Stop MJD. Win the game.

This is an early east coast game and I’m not sure how equipped the Cards are to neutralize MoJo but I’ll take the NFC champs and the points.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES

‘hawks @ CANDLESTICK -1.5 (±39.5)

See what I mean? Candlestick. What a great name for a park!

One of these 2 teams will win the division. The winner might find themselves with a 2 game lead by the evening. I think these two teams are pretty even. I’d like Seattle a lot if they were at home.

Playing in San Francisco essentially makes this a pickem. Coach Singletary hasn’t let me down yet so…

Niners cover.

Bucs @ Rich Stadium -5 (±42.5)

Tampa Bay really did what I thought they would against the Cowboys last week. And the Bills? Forget it. They just can’t seem to get out their own way (Week 15 vs. Jets last year?).

I’m going to do everything in my power not to watch a single minute of this game.

I will however make this my first chicken shit bet.

THE UNDER.

Browns @ MILE HIGH -3 (±39)

See! Another one. Mile High Stadium. Just a terrific name for an arena.

Jamal Lewis did not look completely terrible last week. Braylon Edwards on the other hand is gonna be a headache for his owners this year. It’s not all his fault. Winslow’s gone and Brady stinks.

Unless the NFL allows them to activate a 24 year old Jim Brown in honor of the AFL’s 50 year anniversary I just don’t see Denver losing.

Broncos cover.

THE B-MORE RAVENS @ Qualcomm -3 (±40.5)

This should be a fun game to watch. Massive fantasy implications for yours truly as I own LDT, Sproles, Rice, Mason and the Ravens D. But really, it’s just fun to watch the Ravens smack people around. And Pretty Boy Flacco is no slouch either. Baltimore should have no problem moving the ball.

San Diego on the other hand is dealing with injuries. They lost approximately 17 starting linemen and LDT is wearing a boot.

He’s a funny guy, that LT. I hesitate to call him soft but have you ever seen that commercial where the ref blows the whistle cause a player is down on the field. The coach and the team doctors rush out and ask him, what’s wrong? He lays there on his side, stretched out with his legs crossed picking at the grass and responds with a sheepish: “When they boo me, my feelings hurt!”

Anyway, where were we? Oh. The Ravens. Yeah, I’ll take those points

Champs @ SOLDIER FIELD +3 (±37.5)

I feel it’s only proper that I give the Steelers their proper respect…at least until they get dethroned.

It’s never good when I pick THIS many road teams to cover but the Bears were over-rated BEFORE they lost Urlacher. Actually that’s not true. It’s just Urlacher that was over-rated.

Polamalu on the other hand was the real deal and he’s gone. I’m gonna take the Bears and the points.

SUNDAY NIGHT SACROSANCT

The New York Football Giants @ Cowboys Stadium -3 (±44.5)

They always put this game on Sunday night. I grow so anxious over the course of the afternoon and throughout the game. Boy,do I hate losing to the Cowboys and heaven help me but Romo and Witten ALWAYS have big games against the G-men. That and the fact that this is the first regular season game in Jerry’s New Fully Operational Death Star. I have to admit that I’m looking forward to seeing it myself.

Giants should be able to establish the run. Eli should also have a good game. I don’t usually pick Giants games anyway but you can be safe in taking the OVR.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

COLTS @ Joe Robbie +3 (±42)

Manning and Wayne travel down to South Beach to face the Wildcats.

Listen, these Dolphins aren’t a mystery. Ronnie and Ricky split carries. They run the occasional reverse, direct snap, half-back pass and occasional flea-flicker. Chad Pennington is accurate if not strong-armed. Nothing about them spells victory.

Take this road cover and hopefully the Colts will get you to bed by halftime.

Parlay of the Week:

Tough lines this week so we gotta go with a 5 team parlay but 3 of them are just straight up. Titans, Minny, Skins all to win & Pats, Colts to cover. Pays out 7 on the dollar.

Let’s get it!

Good Luck and God Bless.

FEELS LIKE HOME AGAIN

2009-09-13T08:45:00.014-04:00

Finally the NFL season has returned. I know you are all as excited as I am but let’s take a second to reflect on just how lucky we Americans are. Every year it’s the same thing. September comes. Summer vacation is over. Your baseball team is out of contention. The skies seem a little greyer. The mornings are a little nippier. Sunset always comes 20 minutes too soon. Life in general is about to suck for a solid 6 months.

But lo! Here comes the National Football League to pick up our spirits!

Lo! The nation’s #1 past time arrives complete with ritual Sunday drinking, fantasy football team managing and of course, sports betting of all kinds. I love it!

While it’s true that the between February Superbowls, NFL Combines, The Draft, Mini-camps and Training Camps, football has become a 12 month phenomenon, this particular offseason was especially short. We had more than our fair share of non-sports related stories involving our favorite NFL players.

Plaxico Burress’ legal saga. Donte Stallworth killed a man while driving drunk and high. Michael Vick was released from “the bing” and signed with the Eagles. Brett Favre continued his nonsense up until about ten minutes ago and even Big Ben Roethlisberger found time to get accused of raping some chick in a hotel. (Wait…was THIS one in Colorado too?!)

And finally we had Shawne Merriman, a man accused of battery and wrongful imprisonment of his lady friend, Tia Tequila. But fear not followers of the Light Brigade, Mr. Merriman acquitted himself with a short note to the DA that simply read: “Dude, she calls herself Tia Tequila!”

As Ace Carolla would say…

“LET’S GET IT ON!!!”

EARLY SUNDAY GAMES

Dolphins @ ATLANTA -4 (43.5)

This is a great game to unofficially start the season with because both these teams overachieved last year and this game might let us know which, if any, is the real deal. The Falcons are slight favorites if we assume all road teams get a 3 point bump. Matt Ryan should be better. They added another weapon in Tony Gonzo. Mike Turner is still young enough to absorb another 400 touches.

Also, it’s been well documented that Chad Pennington can NOT put together two good years in a row.

I’m taking the Dirty Birds.

Chiefs @ CHARM CITY -13 (36)

My favorite part of Chan Gailey being stripped of his OC duties were these comments from K.C. running back, Grandmama.

“Too many roosters in the hen house . . . it was only a matter of time . . . Somebody is going to have to bow out of the race. It’s just natural.”

I’ve always appreciated Grandmama’s bluntness, like a couple years ago when asked about Kansas City’s commitment to the run game.

"Football is easy. It's not a chess game. It's checkers. When they're looking for the run, you pass. When they're looking for the pass, you run. When they put nine in the box, you pass. When they overload one side, you run to the other side."

Great stuff LJ. I’m taking the Ravens.

IGGIES @ Carolina +2.5 (43.5)

UH OH… Is Westbrook healthy? (no).

Have the Eagles finally found themselves a solid short yardage back? (no.)

Did they just sign a capable backup that can push McNabb to play at a high level week in and week out? (kinda sorta, but not really.)

Ah well. The Panthers still blow. I’ll take the Iggies.

Broncos @ CINCY -5 (42.5)

Wow. Talk about off season blow-ups. Could wunderkind Josh McDaniels have messed things up more right off the bat? While it’s true Jay Cutler is a little baby, you gotta figure coach panicked a little bit and unloaded the 26 year old pro-bowler a little prematurely. At the very least he sent the wrong message to the rest of the team and league (Brandon now knows 60% of his playbook).

I like Ocho’s Bengals.

VIKINGS @ Cleveland +3.5 (40)

Ugh. Brett Favre disgusts me but the man can still sling a rock. No way is he worse than anything the Vikings had before. Ultimately this team is built on the arses of the Willams twins and All-Day’s running legs. Vikings ALL DAY!

Jets @ HOUSTON -4.5 (44.5)

Everybody loves the Teans. Everybody LOVES Mario Williams and Steve Slaton and Andre “The Beast” Johnson and Matt “I like him in the 6^th round” Schaub. But what happens when half these guys get turf toe and the qb injures his elbow? What then?!!!

Eh. I guess we’ll cross that bridge when come to it. Texans.

Jaguars @ INDY -7 (45)

OOOH! Jags ALWAYS play the Colts tough. Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison are gone. MJD has got the keys to the truck now. Torry Holt is running his crisp routes. New Jag unis. Garrard is finally back on Juicy’s team (?). Too good to be true, right?

Wrong. Jax cover.

LIONS @ Nola -13 (49)

You know those old movie montages where they play “Flight of the Bumblebee” while you see the hustle and bustle of a business starting to boom. Customers coming in and out. Merchandise leaving the shelves and then they go to that shot of the cashier ringing up the registers really fast with the accompanying sound .

This is what I imagine this game is going to be like.

I like the Lions to cover, btw.

COWBOYS @ Tampa +5.5 (39)

This might be the easiest game to pick. New QB. New Coach. New Defense. Only 2 of these 3 were true of last year’s Falcons, Ravens and Dolphins. Plus the Cowboys always come out the gate hotter than July on the Amistad with 2 sweaters on.

Boys (and the Over).

LATE SUNDAY GAMES

49ERS @ Arizona -6 (46)

The battle for NFC West supremacy begins here! Defending NFC champs go up against the Niners headed up by everyone’s favorite “reverse hand-cuff” to Glen Coffee…Mr. Frank Gore.

I was really high on Coach Singletary last year and couldn’t wait to see what he could do with a whole training camp under his belt.

Well here we are. Niners cover.

Skins @ The New York Football Giants -6.5 (37)

This will be the first of many VERY physical games in a division that continues to host strong playoff contenders. Many have the Giants favored in the division and in the conference. That Defensive line is deep. I mean 7 men in and you’re still talking pro-bowlers-deep. But will Canty be healthy? What about Ross and Phillips? And let’s not forget the Redskins and all the upgrades THEY’VE made.

Orakpo will be a beast. And Kareem McKenzie is MAAAAAD iffy on that right side.

I dunno. 6.5 might be a little high.

RAMS @ Seattle -8 (40.5)

The battle for NFC West supremacy continues here! No team was more ravaged by injuries last year than the hawks. If they only returned with everyone healthy they’d add a couple wins to their record. But they’ve also signed Hoosh and E-Boogie himself, Edge James.

Is it enough to win a title? Certainly not.

Enough to beat the Rams at home? Absolutely.

Enough to cover a TD and 2-pt conversion? Slow down.

Rams keep it respectable.

Bears @ GREEN BAY -3.5 (46.5)

(See Lions @ NOLA comments)

Packers.

MONDAY NIGHT GAMES

Bills @ NEW ENGLAND -10.5 (46.5)

Heavens to megatroid! Is this ANOTHER team that fired their OC within the last 2 weeks?

What’s that you say? This guy is off the team completely?

Do they still plan on running the K-Gun without the K?

Really!

What about a HOF Running back. Do they have one of those?

No, huh?

Well, do they at least have an offensive line?

WHAT!?

That’s WHY they’re running this offense…to hide this lack of protection?

How bout this? How bout I just take the Pats to cover those 10.5 points.

CHARGERS @ Oakland +9 (43)

DMC has FINALLY won the starting gig huh? Well that’s good.

Hey, can someone remind me which receiver did Oakland take in the draft, the one who still hasn’t reported to camp or the one who just plays that way?

Light brigade.

PARLAY OF THE WEEK: Let’s start off simply. Falcons, Vikings & Cowboys all to cover; pays out 7 to 1.

Alright. That's it for the first week.

Good Luck and God Bless!

"TO BE MALE"

2009-02-16T01:57:00.004-05:00

I have a hammer.

I can put things together.
I can knock things apart.
I can alter my environment
at will and make
an incredible din all the while.

Ah. It's great to be male!

-Bill Waterson

5 REASONS TO BET ARIZONA TONIGHT

2009-02-01T03:13:00.005-05:00

5 REASONS WHY THE ARIZONA CARDINALS WILL UPSET THE STEELERS

1. The Pittsburgh offense stinks.
It really does. The can’t run the ball, they can’t pass protect and their receiving corps is average at best. Do not let their 29 ppg in the postseason fool you. They’re a homerun offense that relies on Big Ben extending plays with his size and strength. Their most reliable means of sustaining drives is the 3rd down reliability of Hines Ward. He won’t be 100% for the Super Bowl. That could spell trouble.

2. The Arizona defense is underrated.
Actually they were appropriately rated. They’ve only SEEMED to turn it on during the post-season. But the fact is they create a lot of pressure with their front 4. That will be a problem for a Steeler O-line that has that aforementioned problem with pass protection. Big Ben’s ability to “extend the play” comes with a cost. He holds the ball too long which results in sacks and turnovers. That means at least 2 or 3 extra possessions for the…

3.The Arizona offense (duh) is good.
Yes, they will be facing a formidable Steeler defense but no one is asking them to score on every possession. In fact, given the problems Pittsburgh will have on offense, Arizona might only need to score 4 times to win this thing. Arizona’s is so weak when it comes to running the ball that it almost negates Pittsburgh’s strength in stopping the run. The Cardinals will throw out a few token runs to keep the defense relatively honest, but since NO ONE runs on the Steelers, they’re pretty much free to just do what they do best: throw the ball.

4. As good as the Steeler defense is their biggest weakness is Arizona’s greatest strength.
Forget about double teaming Fitzgerald. If the ball is catchable, he’s catching it. If the ball is UN-catchable, he’s catching it. He’ll fight and win the battle for the ball through double and even triple teams. It’s almost pointless. But you still have to double him, otherwise it’s just TOO easy. Pittsburgh’s only chance is the pass rush. They have to, if not hit Warner, then disrupt his timing by bumping the receivers and getting in his throwing lanes with well disguised zone-blitzes. Unfortunately for the Steelers not only does Warner read defenses well and release the ball quickly, he has the benefit of…

5. The Arizona coaching staff.
2/3rds of the senior staff are former Steeler coaches. If there are any two coaches in the league that can devise an offensive game plan to combat Dick Lebeau’s schemes it’s the two guys that practiced against him every week for 5 years. This could possibly be the biggest factor in the game. Not only are Whisenhunt and Grimm knowledgeable when it comes to Lebeau’s philosophies and tendencies on defense (including in game adjustments) but Grimm is intimately familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the Pittsburgh offensive line (Grimm was the offensive line coach).

Now there’s no question that The Pittsburgh Steelers are a very good football team. And they might easily win this game handily. But there is a reason they call this gambling. Some would call the Cardinal’s chances of winning their first Super Bowl tonight slim. All I’m saying is those chances aren’t as slim as one might think. I think their chances are strong enough to warrant the money-line bet. Take Arizona to cover if you wanna play it safe. My money’s gonna be on red to win it outright. Good luck to you either way.

Steelers vs. ARIZONA +6.5

PLAYOFFS!?!?!?

2009-01-09T18:49:00.009-05:00

Hello-Hello-Hello!!!

It's the eve of the NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend and I'm sure you're just as excited about it as I am. Every game is a rematch of a very competitive game previously played in the regular season so things should get very interesting.
The top-seeds are coming off their byes and their challengers are all coming off big wild-card wins. It gets no better than this, folks. But we'll get to all that in a minute.
I wanna take this time out to talk about a few peripheral football issues.

Let's talk about the BCS...

Now I'm not gonna rehash the playoff debate (I'm for one). The fact of the matter is the BCS contract is set until 2012 so the debate can begin in earnest then. All we can do in the meantime is record and compile instances/evidence that supports whatever side of the argument we're on. But given the BCS system as currently constituted, there are still some things that need to be addressed.

Firstly, we have to acknowledge the fact that not only did Utah, champion of a non-BCS conference finish their season undefeated, but they did so by beating Alabama in the Orange Bowl. I understand the argument that teams playing in weaker conferences get weak national championship consideration, but let's be fair. Utah played a very balanced home-away schedule, including games against Top 15 bowl-teams like TCU, BYU, and ultimately, #4 ranked Alabama. What more can they do?
How is there resume any worse than, say, USC's or Penn State's?

Secondly, I don't consider the Oklahoma vs. Texas argument settled. If anything, OU's loss in the BCS Championship game has re-opened the Big 12 controversy. Not only does the orginal argument of Texas deserving a bid over OU by virtue of their superior head-to-head record still hold true, but now after the bowl games, the two teams don't even have identical records!

Texas took care of their business in beating a tough OSU defense in an exciting Fiesta Bowl. but unfortunately, Oklahoma fell short against Florida in a game with everything on the line.

At the very least, Texas should finish #2 in all polls. This of course will make OU's Big 12 championship even more of a travesty.

Finally, turning back to professional football for a minute, I'd like to address the sudden-death overtime debate. Conservatives argue that teams have no right to complain about losing without ever getting an offensive possession because playing defense is as much a part of the game as playing offense is. "Make plays and tackle" goes the argument.

The progressive position states that the game has evolved over the last 15 years with new rules that favor offensive production. And where once the team winning the coin-toss went on to win overtime a mere 4 out of 10 times, that number is closer to 7 out of 10 now. The inherent imbalance is statistically evident.

I am sensitive to both arguments, but both arguments miss what should be the most compelling point. Sudden-death overtime is inherently unfair because the team winning the toss (it is assumed that they will opt for possession) has the advantage of only needing ONE unit performing moderately successfuly to win the game. The 'losers' of the coin-toss, on the other hand need ALL 3 units to perform moderately successfully to win the same game!

For example, in overtime the Chargers elect to receive the ball. The Colts kickoff and the Charger's bring it out to the 28 yd line (avg starting field pos. in the NFL last year). Now assuming your average team needs to get to the opponent's 35 yd line for a reasonable fg try, the offense now just needs to drive about 35 yds to put themselves in GREAT position to win the game.

At any point during regulation, a 35 yd drive could be considered a mild success for either side of the ball, but here in overtime it has all but won the game for the Chargers and all but lost it for the Colts!

Conversely, the Colts after kicking off need to:

1. have mild-to-moderate success on defense, forcing a punt after a 15-20 yd Charger drive. Then either...
2a. have a great return, bringing the ball out to near midfield followed by...
3a. their own 30-35 yard drive.
or worse...
2b. have a 'modest' punt return to the 20 followed by...
3b. their own 45-50 yd drive.

Either way, the Colts need to do ALL 3 things to have the same chance at shot at a win that the Chargers have with just a '35 yd drive.'

While it's true that football is a game where plays need to be made on all sides of the ball, the fact is sudden-death immediately and ultimately rewards scoring. So while the winner of the coin-toss can cash in on a victory by driving a 1/3 of the field, the loser of the toss cannot do the same by simply defending that same portion of the field.
That's the imbalance and that's the inherent unfairness.

The only solution is to guarantee each team 1 offensive possession whether by punt, kickoff, or turnover. There's no guarantee of equal number of possessions because the conservative argument is still valid. Ultimately, the players need to make plays. But guaranteeing each team has at least 1 chance to score ensure that equal effort is rewarded somewhat equally.

Alright, enough of this blather. Let's dig into these playoffs.

SATURDAY GAMES

ED REED @ Music City -3
oooh. This is gonna be one physical game, much like their regular season matchup. It's tough for me to pick a rookie QB on the road against a #1 seed coming off a bye. But the Ravens played the Titans tough all those weeks ago and the entire team is just better now.

The smart play for the Titans is to just be patient and run the ball no matter what the circumstances of the game. Ed Reed is just too scary out there.

Conversely, the Ravens may find it tough sledding trying to run against a Titans team complete with their DTs back.
Either way I think the Ravens can mitigate the Titans offensive output enough to have this game come down to a big special teams/defensive play. I like the Ravens in that scenario.

CARDINALS @ Carolina -9.5
Bear with me for a second. Carolina isn't that great a defensive team. Their secondary can be had and their run D is suspect. Now the Cards are only equipped to attack ONE of those weaknesses, but I look for them to continue using Edgerrin James enough to keep this defense honest.
Let's remember that the Cards played them close earlier in the season.

Edge is fresh, the Cards are playing with house money and Larry Fitzgerald is simply amazing. I think Carolina wins in the end, but the Cardinals keep it under double digits.

SUNDAY GAMES

Iggies @ The Meadowlands -4
Oh boy, do I have a lot of anxiety over this game. I hate the Eagles with a passion. These games are always close. In the playoffs they only get closer. Both teams know each other so well that the coordinators could have taken the week off. This is gonna be a slobber-knocker much like the Baltimore-Tennessee game.

The Giants have Brandon Jacobs back at full strength which makes a world of difference. He's their MVP and he's amped up for this game after weeks of inactivity. A juiced up Jacobs is a scary thought.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are a little banged up. If Runyan and Westy aren't near 100% this will be a long day for McBurger. Justin Tuck should be fresher than he was towards the end of the season and the entire defense will renew their commitment to containing Westbrook like they did in wk 10 as opposed to wk 14.

Ultimately I think this game will only be close for 2 1/2 quarters, I just don't know which. The smart money in the divisional round goes towards teams coming off byes and the Giants have all but cleared their injury report. But the Eagles are rallying together around the "everybody wrote us off" card. It might just be enough. Unfortunately I'm still not able to make a pick involving the Giants but I've given you enough to make an informed decision.

CHARGERS @ Schlitzburg -6
This game has a little bit of everything. It's a rematch like all the other games. When Flip Rivers has the ball you have a great offense versus a great defense. When Big Ben is under center it's the exact opposite, a weak offense against a weak defense but both with timely big-playmaking ability. We also have another team playing the "written off" card, like the Eagles. But when I see this game, especially where money is concerned, I see a game where the spread is WAAAAAY too large. Perhaps when factoring in the results of their last matchup, Vegas considered the rightful scoring as opposed to the disputed result (Steelers should have covered 4 with Polamalu's late TD).

I don't have much analysis to offer this game. Both teams annoy me. One went 8-8 the other has Roethlisberger and a swiss cheese offensive line. Also, they're playing in shitty-ass Heinz field. Just take the points.

No parlays this week. I just wanna sit back and watch these teams decide their ultimate fates.

Cheers!

"Glub Glub"

2009-01-06T23:47:00.004-05:00

Anatomy of a Drink Pt. 2

A washout...a washup, maybe...
it feels like a a wash down.

It's a wash down and out.

Have you ever stood naked in a warm rain
with all eyes elsewhere?
You feel cleansed yet sullied at the same
time.
Irrelevancy
is washed away.
But there's more.

There's the privus and the intimus,
the exposed personal that becomes evident.
And that is the fire!
Such is the heat that breeds comfort and action.

Smoothest of comforts
and most violent of actions
sometimes left subtle all the same.

drip drop drain
of everthing that stifles.
It is the drown...

...the glub glub.

WILD WEEKEND

2009-01-03T15:13:00.005-05:00

Welcome back sports fans. We took a couple of weeks off what with the holidays and all. And by the way, Happy New Years to you and yours!

It's NFL wild card weekend and it looks to be a wild one, indeed. The lines opened up earlier this week with 4 road favorites. Somewhat insane but when you consider that we have two 8-8 teams hosting games along with a Miami team that was 1-15 last year and a Minnesota team with Tarvaris Jackson at QB, its easy to see why these lines might be so tight.

But enough of all that, let's get right into it.

SATURDAY GAMES

Dirty Birds @ ARIZONA -1.5
This game was a tough one to pick. You have two competing playoff philosophies here. One says that you never go with a team that can't run the ball, and can't play defense. That's the Arizona Cardinals in a nutshell. Conversely, while the Falcons don't necessarily scare anyone on defense, they can control the clock with their run game and Matt Ryan has proven he can also hurt you with a solid passing attack.

But that's the flipside. Atlanta is trotting out a rookie QB which normally doesn't bode well for a playoff team. Arizona on the other hand has a 2-time league MVP with a Super-Bowl ring on his finger. They'll also be starting the veteran Edgerrin James who finally re-emerged in week 17 with 100+ yds rushing on 15 some odd carries.

Atlanta has been great at home and mediocre on the road. The same for Arizona and fortunately for them they will be at home in beautiful Glendale, where running the ball won't necessarily be at a premium. I think the Cards will have enough veterans in the huddle and will do enough to scoring to force Matt Ryan to make some plays with the passing game. And ultimately you gotta bet on a rookie to make rookie mistakes in such a pressure packed game. The pick: Arizona Cardinals.

COLTS @ San Diego +1.5
This is probably the easiest game to dissect. These teams play each other every year. There are no rookies playing in their first playoffs. Both teams have been on the playoffs and understand what it takes to win.

There's been alot of talk about how Flip Rivers was the hottest QB down the stretch, how the Chargers match up with the Colts so well and how much trouble (relatively) that Peyton has with 3-4 defenses.
Sounds to me like alot of nonsense. Or people trying to talk themselves out of picking too many road teams to win.

Here's the bottom line: Peyton Manning knows this defense as well as they know him. And this team just knows how to win close games, as opposed to the Chargers who've never been mistaken for a team full of heart. And the fact of the matter is that it is Peyton who has been the hottest QB over the latter half of the season. Ultimately this is an 8-8 team going up against a team with the 2nd best record in football. Let's not try to reinvent the wheel here. Colts.

SUNDAY GAMES

RAVENS @ Miama +3.5
The other rookie QB of the playoffs. In many ways he's less polished that his counterpart in the NFC, but unlike Matt Ryan, Flacco is on a playoff experienced team with just as strong a running game but with a championship-type defense to boot.

These two teams actually played each other a few weeks ago and unfortunately for Miami, it wasn't much of a contest. Miami has done pretty well with their bells and whistles offense. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been solid and Chad Pennington doesn't make mistakes. It will be interesting to see how they all perform against Lewis, Reed and the rest this second go 'round.

My pick: more of the same. Take the Ravens.

Iggies @ MINNESOTA +3
Ugh. Here's the game I've been dreading to pick. Were this the regular season I'd say stay away or make an over/under pick but with only 4 games scheduled this week we gotta show some seeds. Again we have competing philosophies doing battle. Minnesota has the better run game and stouter run defense. But they have Tarvaris Jackson at QB. I wouldn't trust that guy any farther than he can incomplete it.
On the other hand he's going against Meltdown McBurger and the Pied Piper of horrible coaches, Andy Reid.
Then again, the coach on the other sideline is one of Andy's proteges, Brad Childress!
What's a gambler to do?

In the end my decision is to just keep it simple. These teams are evenly matched in terms of big-game-botchability so I'll just take the better team for and against the run, the home team and the points. Vikings.

Alright, there you have it. My wild card weekend picks, and not a moment too soon. Games start in a coupla hours.

Not gonna make a parlay pick because there's just too much happening with these teams. But if you must combinate, take all my picks except for the final game, Eagles @ Minny. Or take that under (41) and stay the hell away from the Falcons/Cardinals.

Basically, under no circumstances should you be betting on both games simultaneously.
If you do, please seek help.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck!

Live Alone. Die Alone.

2009-01-02T20:10:00.004-05:00

You feel a certain amount of loneliness for long enough and you just become confortable with it. You make yourself at home in it. It's a coping mechanism like anything else.

People misunderstand what loneliness is all about. It's not about solitude or not having someone to share something with. That's not where the pain comes from. It comes from a lacking. A failure. A deficit that's the result of what you want or expect at a certain time, and what is actually there. And after a while, if you're lonely long enough, the expectation no longer exists but the desire remains. It's the last thing to go. Were you to ever truly lose that then you'd truly be happy being alone. There would be no loneliness. But there is always a need. There is always a deep-seated desire. But you keep that at bay for the most part and instead manage your expectations.

That's where the reclusiveness comes in. That's how the grinch comes to be. And in all the things you see that can be fun, joyous or satisfying, and in all the ways that those things involve other people, other beings, other souls...you, instead, see sadness, hurt and despair. You no longer trust things to be what they are. You know the ugly truth and you reject it. Because instead of wanting to be happy, instead of wanting a life filled with joy, you want to avoid the the hurt, the sadness and the despair. It's too much to bear. And if a life without rejection, without deficit, costs you moments upon moments of fleeting joys and happiness, that's just fine. Because with no expectation comes no disappointment.

And what do you do for a life? How do you choose a life without joy? There's no malevolence in your grinchy attitude. Your expectation is now only quiet and solitude. Because that abides. That persists. That can come upon request.

The "grinch" comes when a life worth living tries to intrude on your life made tolerable. He grumps and growls when the world reminds you that somewhere deep inside you beats a heart that might not yet be satisfied with a life without love. Somehow, someway, inevitably, a blade of hope grows through the cracks of your concrete emotional solitude. And it grows with an eager yearning for light and love and nurturing. This single blade pierces through months, years, possibly a lifetime's thick of resolve and resignation. This little blade screams for more. It yearns for life. It threatens to shatter everything you've worked so hard to create and to avoid.

So you beat it. You crush it. You drive it back into temporary oblivion. And you let out a sigh of relief.
The earth no longer quakes.
The moon stays in orbit.
The sun remains safe, very far and very away.
You are alone again and that is as you expected.

Life becomes barren and loveless and the BEST part is that the greatest promise that day brings is the promise of nothing. Nothing more than whatever a sunrise and a fresh cup of coffee gives you every morning.

Safety. Solitude. Satisfaction.

Safety is an illusion. This life offers no guarantees.
Satisfaction is a function of the mind and of the heart.
Solitude is the only thing that is real. It's the only true constant.

You're born alone. You die alone.

I will model my life after this persistent reality.

New Untitled Poem

2008-12-20T07:12:00.004-05:00

He dreams love-requited
and twice unknown.
All of a(n)ever lasting kind.

Drowning in knots,
he slumbs in wisps.
Drip...drop.
Drips and drops.

AND WHY DO WE FALL?

2008-12-18T07:55:00.010-05:00

"So we can learn how to get back up!"
-Alfred Pennyworth

Hello, football fans!
Great to have you back for another week of handicapping.

Last week was a bit of a duck.
I went 6-7-2 with my picks, which isn't terrible considering, except that I put an extra large bet on the Ravens-Steleers game after tanking on so many of the early games. Obviously that didn't work out well and I added injury to insult by breaking my cardinal rule of not laying money on Giants games. Without going into too many specifics let's just say that by the time Monday night rolled around I was in some dire financial straits. So much so that I started laying my last few nickels and dimes on some NBA games in an attempt to get back on my feet.
Gambling problem, anyone?
Eh. Perhaps.
But you'll be happy to know that thanks to the Warriors, Sixers, Mavs and Celtics, The Prince of Parlay is back in the game with a renewed commitment to getting these calls right.

Now remember, the points listed are for the home team and the pick, in CAPS, is against the spread unless otherwise noted.

So let's get right to it.

THURSDAY NIGHT

COLTS @ Jacksonville +6
The Colts are locked into their wild card slot and they have a history of taking late season games lightly when there isn't much to play for. Still, they could miss the playoffs entirely if the Ravens and 2 AFC East teams win out. They won't have the luxury of playing after any of these potential spoilers. So look for them to take this one seriously and treat it as their last playoff tune-up.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Ravens @ COWBOYS -4
Don't you just love this time of the year? The air is crisp. The hearth is warm. Johnny Mathis is crooning away and football is on 4 nights out of 7. And this is no turd of a matchup! Both teams are on the playoff bubble and need to win this week to stay alive.
The Ravens defense let me down against the Steelers. And that challenge "uphold" robbed us of a climactic 4th and inches play at the goal-line. The Cowboys on the other hand played inspired defense, albeit against a Giants team missing their two biggest offensive weapons. Bottom line, The Cowboy D will keep Joe Flacco and the Raven rbs in check while Romo and co. scare up enough tds to win.

SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON
STEELERS @ Music City -2
I hope you guys appreciated my call on that Texan victory over the Titans last week. The Titans are flawed and, oddly enough, the Steelers are better equipped to beat the them in Nashville than they are in the slop that is Heinz Field. Plus, the Titan DTs are out. Meanwhile, Dick LeBeau will crowd the box and force Kerry to beat his secondary. This time he won't. (This also is a great game to take the under)

Dolphins @ ARROWHEAD +4
Shame on me for picking against the Chiefs at home. I won't make that mistake again. The South Beach Wildcats play good defense but Thigpen has been making things happen for KC. Conversely, The Dolphins might have to contend with near freezing temperatures on Sunday. It's about time for Pennington to turn back into a pumpkin.

CARDINALS @ New England -8
This is a pick ATS. The Pats are banged up. Matt Light is out and so might be his backup. Their secondary is also dealing with injuries. But even were they healthy, the Arizona wideouts would have been a handful. Take the Cards.

BENGALS @ Cleveland -3
ugh. This game should be flexed out of ALL timeslots.

NINERS @ St. Louis +5.5
Riding with Mike Singletary has served me pretty well. I rooted for SF to win against Miama last week but they played tough and still covered. They'll do the same, if not more, versus the Rams.

SAINTS @ Detroit +7
This line SHOULD be bigger but I think Vegas is setting the line against the odds of a team losing 15 straight in one season. I don't care. A healthy Pierre Thomas gives Drew Brees enough of a run game to keep Detroit's lack of a defense honest.

CHARGERS @ Tampa -3.5
This one gives me a little agida. The Chargers put up one helluva comeback (though it was against the Chiefs). The Bucs D has been more 'myth' than 'mythical' lately. Both of these teams need this game. I'm not sure who's gonna win but I'm confident the Chargers will keep themselves in it.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON

Jets @ SEATTLE +5
Ooooooh. Is this one gonna hurt! Sorry, Jets fans. That was a great steal against the Bills but you're gonna hafta pay that one back. Hopefully, Holmgren wakes up in time to realise this is the last home game he'll ever coach.

TEXANS @ Oakland +7
C'mon. You know what it is.

Bills @ DENVER -7
Boy, was Marshawn Lynch going bananas before JP decided to take the game into (and then out of) his own hands. Throw the Champ Clamp on Lee Evans and do your best to contain Lynch and this game shouldn't be a problem. But here are a couple things to watch out for...
1. Trent Edwards will probably get the start. But if HE can't go, neither will Losman who's now 3rd on the depth chart.
2. If the Chargers lose against Tampa this game becomes meaningless for Denver since the winner of this division is locked in at the 4 seed.

IGGIES @ Chocolate City +5
Philly is playing good ball again. They're desperate for a chance to control their destiny versus the Cowboys in week 17. The Redskins on the other hand have quietly become more unstable than any of the other NFC East teams....okay, maybe not. But they've finally returned to a state of stink, and that's good enough for me.

Falcons @ Minnesota -3 OVR 43
Your classic "evenly matched teams" line. One of the Williams twins is out and Tarvaris Jackson will probably throw 4 picks instead of TDs in this game. But it's tough to bet against AP. Let's just assume that BOTH backs will have big days and make our money that way.

SUNDAY NIGHT SACROSANCT

Panthers @ The Meadowlands -3
Your classic "evenly matched teams" line, "part deux." I'm not gonna make a pick but I will say this. The 2008 Panthers look a helluva lot like the 2007 New York Football Giants. Game managing QB benefitting from a strong running game and a WR who commands double teams along with a solid defense that can get after the opposing QB.
Spags is gonna hafta find a way to account for both offensive poisons. Those running backs can kill a defense and so can Steve Smith. Time for Corey Webster to earn that contract extension. The Giants, on the other hand, need to get Ahmad Bradshaw more involved in the game and set Eli up so he can start slinging that rock.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Packers @ CHICAGO -4
I gave you my heart...over and over again. I'd be a fool to get back with you now (though the prospect of Charles Woodson moving back to CB and shutting down Hester is making me waiver). Well, listen. These Bears were able to contain Brees and his Brave 300. I gotta roll with them.

THE PRINCE OF PARLAY'S "PARLAY OF THE WEEK":
BENGALS, TEXANS, STEELERS, COWBOYS & COLTS all straight up (10.85:1)

All right, folks. That's my time.
Apologies to those of you who lost money last week but it's just like something my old man used to always tell me.

He'd say, "Son...I'm not your real daddy."

Laaaaaaaaaaaaate!

DON'T THINK! JUST DO!

2008-12-10T20:49:00.013-05:00

Hello Ladies and Gentlemen!

Great to have you back for another round of handicapping!

The NFL regular season nears its end and with it come those all important late-season divisional matchups as well as teams jockeying for playoff positions. But more relevant to our endeavor is the fact that lines get REAL tight in the late season. I'm not talking about low spreads. I'm talking about Vegas getting real good at setting their lines. This will make my job a little bit more difficult.

Last week was a little tough but
we were still able to go 8-6 on the games we picked giving us an overall record of 43-29 over the last month or so of betting. That's about a 15% return on your money. Not too many investments giving you that these days!

I'm just saying...

THURSDAY NIGHT

SAINTS @ Chicago -3
Wonderful. The first of the foul lines. To be fair, this is one of your standard "evenly-matched-home-team-getting-3" lines. But still, what do you do with it? You could play it conservatively and just take the home team. But part of you feels like Drew Brees can pull this out with all his weapons back at his disposal. You don't wanna take the over because it's a cold Chicago night game. But taking the under (44.5) seems silly. I'm gonna make this my first upset/road pick. BREES!

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

PACKERS @ Jacksonville +1
The Packers have been doing a great job of disappointing me lately. I'd take the over (44.5) had I faith the Jags could hold up there end of the bargain. Shuffling their defensive backfield did not work for Green Bay. Neither did moving Poppinga to DE. On the other hand, Jacksonville is more one-dimensional than a Texans team with Matt Schaub. Let's give the Pack one last chance.

Megatron @ Indy -17 OVR 44.5
Biggest spread of the week. The Colts had no problem covering 2 tds against the Bengals, so this line makes sense. But jaysis. You wouldn't be human if a near-20-pt-spread didn't make you a little nervous. Detroit has weapons on offense. and by "weapons" I do mean Kevin Smith and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. Poor guys need a quarterback and a defense.
I'm not thinking twice about taking this over.

'Skins @ Cincinatti +7 OVR 36.5
Here are a few words from Clinton Portis after last week's loss to the Ravens:

"I guarantee you I know our system better than anybody else, I guarantee when we go over blitz pickups I don't miss my man. I don't know what it is, bro. If anybody got a problem with me, they need to talk to me. I don't know whats going on."

"If my man ain't coming, I ain't chipping nobody, I ain't doing nothing I ain't supposed to do. I'm gonna get out in my pass route and that's where I'll be. If somebody else give up a sack or anything else, that's on them."

"What I need to be around for is Sundays and that's what I try to be around for. So I mean, if you've got a problem with me not practicing and can't do it that way, maybe you feel like you need to sever ties, split ties with me? Split ties with me. But don't sit here and throw me out like I don't pay attention, like I don't know what's going on, like I'm making mistakes, I'm the problem. You know, so, it is what it is, bro."

"You know, one day it's chip on your way out, then if you don't chip and you get out and the quarterback gets sacked it's like, 'Oh, you need to help this man out.' So they don't know what they want. They want you to chip, they want you to block, Jason's on his ass all game long, you're trying to stay in and help, and then it's, 'Oh, you should have gone out, they was coming to you."

"Hey, bro, it ain't rocket science how to use me. They can figure that out. If they want to put the ball in my hands I can try to help the team win. They don't I'll try to do whatever I can. If I need to cheer Ladell on, I'll cheer Ladell on. I'm not gonna be bitter about the situation."

What does all it all mean? It means I'm betting all the clowns in this circus ass-back each other into covering the points. That's what it means.

Pirates @ HOTLANTA -3
This NFC South is turning into a slugfest. The Bucs betrayed me last Monday. The Panthers exposed that defense.
Fool me twice and you're not gonna fool me again!

NINERS @ Miama -6.5
WHOAH! The DOLPHINS are getting a touchdown spread? Lookit them all grown up, forming full sentences and everything!
Great win up in Toronto, but that was against the Bills. What more does Mike Singletary have to do to prove to you that he's not dickin' around?
Defeat the Wildcat? YOU GOT IT!!!

Bills @ The Meadowlands -8 OVR 41
ugh. Speaking of the Bills, they've inexplicably forgotten how to score touchdowns.
The Jets, on the other hand, simply are who I think they are.
Buffalo should be able to APPROACH twenty points (perhaps by way of Roscoe Parrishy antics) and therefore contribute their share of the OVER.

Oilers @ HOUSTON +3
Holee Shinola!!! Tennessee is 12-1 and they're only getting a FG against the Texans! By the end of this game Jeff Fisher's gonna be singing, "OH HOUSTON, LOVE DON'T LIVE HERE NO MORE!!!"

CHARGERS @ Arrowhead +5
There once was a time when a smart bettor would NEVER put money against the Chiefs at home. Well, either times have changed or I'm dumber than a bag of wooden hammers.

HAWKS @ St. Louis +3
Oh! If Georgia Frontiere was alive to see this Rams mess. Every week it's a shitshow. I thought it couldn't get worse than that debacle against the Jets in week 10 but it did.
Down 17, with the line set at 14, Marc Bulger faced a 1st and 10 @ the Arizona 10 yd line with 3 minutes to play.
ANY SCORE AND YOUR RAMS MONEY IS SAFE!!!
What does this donut do? He throws a pick-6 to Rodgers-Cromartie. 99 fuckin' yd return. Unbelievable.

SUNDAY LATE GAMES

Steelers @ CHARM CITY -1
What a game! This is what NFL football is all about folks. Steelers-Ravens, week 15, in a game that could decide the division. Ed Reed put on quite the performance last week. GOTTA love Ed Reed. GOTTA put your money in his hands.
B-MORE STAND UP!!!

BRONCOS @ Carolina -7.5
Steve Smith is an animal but he's actually not hard to cover. He basically runs posts and deep outs all day. I think Champ is up to it. The Panthers will rack up yards on the ground but if Garcia can go for 300+, I think Jay Cutler can keep it close.

PATS @ Oakland +7
I gotta be honest with you good people. I don't know what I was thinking with that Oakland pick last week. My disgust with the Chargers clouded my perception of the Raiders' ineptitude.
The Pats did me no better last week. Sure they got what THEY wanted out of week 14, but what about me?
What about us?
What about love?

Vikes @ ARIZONA -3
I don't like the Cardinals. They don't run the ball. They don't play defense. That kinda nonsense don't play come January. But then again, this ain't January and the 'kings are susceptible through the air.
So i'll take Arizona to cover at home in that big beautiful stadium of theirs.

SUNDAY NIGHT SACROSANCT

The New York Football Giants @ Dallas -3
I hate the fuckin' Cowboys.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Browns @ PHILLY -14
ESPN has GOT to negotiate flexible scheduling rights.

PARLAY OF WEEK:
NINERS, JETS, CHARGERS & PATS (8.37:1)